John Thompson, historian and retired teacher in Oklahoma, keeps us up to date about the political winds in his state.
He writes:
My Congresswoman, Stephanie Bice (R-OK), has been getting national attention since the Bulwark revealed an audio of Bice telling Republican students “that President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and freewheeling executive actions were hurting the party and even endangering seemingly safe seats like hers.”
Rep. Bice was quoted as saying:
“The challenge that we have is that we have to get over the narrative that ‘I don’t like this guy, so I’m going to vote for the Democrat,’” said Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), according to audio obtained by The Bulwark. “Because I’m telling you right now, I’m hearing it already.”
She also said:
“And what happens is that’ll impact me because . . . two things will either happen,” Bice added. “They’re going to vote for the Democrat and they may split [the] ticket and vote for me and a few others, or—this is my bigger fear right now—people don’t go vote.”
The Bulwark reported that Bice provided a “rare glimpse into the gloom some elected Republicans feel about the impending midterms.” And, she explained, “I was at a board meeting yesterday with a group, and one of the execs said to me, ‘I’m a Republican, I’ve been a Republican for a long time, but I have Trump fatigue.'”
Bice later argued that she was just “relaying a comment made by someone else and discussing the importance of Republicans turning out and voting for the entire ticket. Any suggestion otherwise takes her comments out of context.”
In fact, after quoting the Republican who complained about “Trump fatigue,” Bice said, “It’s a fair statement, you know?”
She also said, “We’re not helping ourselves when we decide to rename Lake Ontario Lake America. This does not help the case.”
Most polls predict Bice will be reelected. But, the national news regarding Bice only reported a third of the story. There are a couple more narratives that make the case that Republicans will likely lose this seat, and many other seats.
First, the national news is also full of coverage of other conservative, Republican incumbents who are falling behind Democrat challengers.
And perhaps the most positive part of the story is how and why a poll found the charismatic Democrat, Jena Nelson, Oklahoma’s 2020 Teacher of the Year, leading by 4 points.
The 5th Congressional previously elected a Democrat congresswoman, Kendra Horn. Yes, Horn was defeated in 2020 by less than five points. Because Oklahoma City was growing more progressive, it’s hard to believe that Bice would have won in 2022 if the district had not been dramatically gerrymandered.
And, as Nelson explained in 2026, “It’s been almost five years since her [Bice’s] last in-person town hall on August 25, 2021.”
And, in a recent discussion, Bice didn’t seem to have taken a clear enough stand to win over the “61 percent of respondents who said that data centers are a threat to local resources or wanted a full ban on the facilities. An additional 20 percent said they wanted more regulations on the centers.”
Similarly, if Bice listened to Oklahomans, why would she justify her opposition to raising the minimum wage above $7.25 per hour, by claiming it would provide “a broad range of benefits with no regard for the actual level of need of those on the receiving end of funding.”
As the Oklahoma City part of the 5th District has continued to become more progressive, Jena Nelson, has also invested months of time, introducing herself, and listening to people in the conservative rural areas.
At the same time, Bice has done herself no favors by giving muddled answers as to why, for instance, she voted for Trump’s issues like his cutting 1 billion dollars of hospital reinbursements in her district.
Nelson’s polling reveals that in July 2026, 50% viewed Trump very unfavorably and 4% somewhat unfavorably, while 31% viewed Trump very favorably and 10% somewhat favorably. That means that, “His overall favorability is underwater by 13 points.”
Moreover, “Voters respond positively to Nelson’s biography (61-12), while Bice’s profile produces a net-negative response (40-42). And, Bice “also gains 13 points among self-identified independents, reaching 65%. Among Moderate Republicans, she rises 13 points to 26%.”
And, I would add that when watching Nelson interact with crowds, it is easy to understand why she was selected Teacher of the Year. Her ability to listen, her empathy, her enthusiasm are combined with her knowledge and intellect. Her audiences not only see the damage that Bice helped Trump impose, but they see and feel the principles and the solutions that Jena is committed to.





