Robert Hubbell writes a blog about the travails of politics. I have excerpted a small portion of his post. Please open the link to read in full.
Hubbell writes:
The 2024 election is not merely a choice between Biden and Trump. It is a choice between democracy and tyranny, liberty and subjugation, dignity and debasement, safety and mayhem, global stability and chaos, climate crisis mitigation or acceleration, retirement security and insecurity, justice and vengeance, science and ignorance, decency and depravity. If we cannot convince voters that the choice comes down to those polar opposites, it does not matter who the candidate is.
I support Joe Biden because he is a great president, a good and decent man, and a skilled politician who achieved great things with bare majorities in the House and Senate. His performance in the debate does not define him. I believe Joe Biden is the best candidate to defeat Trump. If he is forced out by a media-driven frenzy and a cabal of unnamed insiders and pundits, it will be the greatest miscalculation and tragedy in American politics in a century.
I am not giving up and I won’t be pressured into apologizing for Joe Biden’s imperfections in a world where every politician is imperfect. Shadowboxing with unnamed party insiders and pundits is a waste of time. We have real work to do. Let’s get to it!
Diane Ravitch's blog 
“Shadowboxing with unnamed party insiders and pundits is a waste of time.“
Why make it a battle? Why assume that everyone who disagrees with you is doing so in bad faith? Why not see that often when people criticize, it’s with the intent of strengthening, not tearing down?
I know plenty of liberals who want Biden to stay in the race and plenty who want him to step down. What all of these people have in common is a desperate fear of Trump winning in November. Both “sides” may have different ideas about how to prevent that, but you are not enemies. Turning on people who disagree with you and casting them as enemies is a likely way to drive them away altogether, and that certainly isn’t going to prevent Trump from being elected. Maybe listen to what people are saying and why? You don’t have to agree, but stop assuming bad intent/evil character. Only cultists can’t hear criticism.
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Well said. Especially when it comes to disagreements among commenters on a blog.
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Did I miss something in this essay where Robert Hubbell said that our real enemy is NOT tyranny and our real enemy is NOT those who will end democracy, but instead our real enemies are the Democrats who want Biden to step aside? Did I miss something in this essay where Robert Hubbell said our enemies are NOT those would accelerate the climate crisis, but instead our enemies are the other Democrats who also want to prevent a climate crisis but who think a candidate other than Biden will do better against Trump?
Apparently I did, otherwise I would have to think that this comment is concern trolling.
I appreciated this person’s honesty when I asked them yesterday if there was any viable replacement Democratic candidate they would vote for to defeat Trump if Biden stepped down, and instead of mentioning one, she said:
“I don’t actually care whether Trump and the Republicans are prevented from having power”.
I’m not sure it’s particularly constructive to listen to concern trolling advice from someone who doesn’t see any value in stopping the Republicans from taking over this country.
It is the Republicans who don’t allow dissent in their ranks and ex-communicate people who dare to criticize their great leader. But this person doesn’t care whether the Republicans are prevented from having power.
This seems like classic concern trolling. Democrats are supposedly casting those who disagree with them about who best to defeat Trump as their “enemies”. But they aren’t.
Democrats recognize that the real so-called “enemy” — the folks who are don’t care about protecting democracy — are the people who don’t care whether Trump and the Republicans are prevented from having power. Either because they like what that authoritarian Republican rule will give them, or because nothing about what that authoritarian Republican rule does bothers them as much as what the “evil Dems” do.
Putin probably also has some “concern trolling” advice for the Democrats, and no doubt “Bibi” Netanyahu would love to offer his concern trolling advice to the Dems. But why take advice from someone who negatively spins what Dems are doing, when that person does not want the Dems to win regardless of who the nominee is?
Nothing as condescending as someone advising you not to do something that you are not doing, or advising you to do something that you are already doing, to imply you Dems are too inept to think of that yourself, because that person does not want your party to win.
Robert Hubbell already knows exactly who the enemy is and he certainly made it clear in his essay.
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Knew I could count on you to prove my point. Thank you!
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You didn’t have a point. It is the REPUBLICANS who treat anyone who disagrees with them their enemy.
Robert Hubbell does not. Neither does kathyirwin1, whom you accused of making “character assassinations” when you were the one attacking her character.
I can disagree with people or criticize their snark, but I know the difference between an enemy and someone on the same side. You aren’t on the side of Democrats – you have said for the record here that you don’t care if Trump wins and you won’t vote for Biden or any Democrat who replaces Biden.
Some of your posts make me think you are the one who sees Democrats as your “enemy”. Your posts make it clear that you don’t like Republicans either, but you don’t talk about them as if you see them as “enemies”. You have said you don’t care if they have power.
I don’t understand how you can’t see any value to preventing Trump from being president again, especially after the Supreme Court’s latest rulings.
I am willing to stipulate that it is unlikely a Democrat will be able to do much to make things better.
But it is (in my opinion) a 100% certainty that a second Trump administration will make things a lot worse. For the most vulnerable folks in America, if not for you and me. And worse for people around the world, too.
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”We have real work to do. Let’s get to it!” This is it.
Biden really is running to Protect Democracy Against Tyranny. The fact that a very wide assortment of so-called Dems/ Progressives/Liberals, Left-Wingers don’t see it that way allows us to look more closely at who they REALLY are. Because their behavior lined up with detached, elite, destructive, disconnected from We The People “activist” calls for a Biden step aside says they are part of the wolf pack dressed up in sheeple clothing.
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Instead of presenting a unified front in time of crisis, weak big donor Democrats are waffling and whimpering. Democrats that splinter too easily are contributing to the chaos that the GOP and Putin seek. Good luck to them if they believe Harris can pull it off.
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I know this is treating the election as a horse race, which the media loves and I abhor, but I have often wondered if Harris would be strong enough to carry the closing stages of the campaign if Biden either became incapacitated or worse in September or October. Meanwhile I have wondered the same thing about Trump, who is also in his later years.
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I will vote Blue, no matter who, but I hope Democrats do not throw the baby out with the bath water.
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Typical liberal character assassination of anyone who disagrees with you rather than at least considering the possibility that there may be other valid viewpoints.
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We’ve now entered Orwellian territory.
It is “typical liberal character assassination” to criticize those who don’t understand that this election is about protecting democracy against tyranny, but not character assassination to call someone a character assassin because they criticize those who don’t see the high stakes of this election?
Very confusing.
Is it a “typical liberal character assassination” when someone can’t acknowledge that people who strongly criticize Trump and Putin simply have valid viewpoints? And instead attacks them? Or is only a “character assassination” if “a liberal” is critical of someone who defends Putin and Trump?
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What I’m really curious about, NYC PSP, is what your opinion is on the question of whether Biden should step aside. Don’t keep us guessing!!!!
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I won’t join you in your insulting snarkiness, Bob.
I already know what your opinion about Biden stepping down is. I know your reasons. I make every effort not to mischaracterize your reasons in order to criticize them. Sometimes when you cite a reason that isn’t valid (as in your invoking what Nate Silver is saying now, in July 2024) – I respond by explaining why the evidence contradicts your argument.
All I ask is that you stop mischaracterizing my reasons for doubting that Biden stepping down for Kamala or “nominee to be named later” is a good idea.
My argument is NOT “don’t believe the video, it’s right-wing propaganda”
It shouldn’t be this hard to have a civil discussion.
I would like the Dems to win as much as you do. I am not your enemy, regardless of what the person who is fine with Trump winning says. But maybe you see me as your enemy?
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Yep. And if you point out that the Dems who have a long history of caring about the right issues and thinking for themselves — like Bernie Sanders, AOC and Stacey Abrams — are standing by Biden, they even heckle you!
“The wishful benefits of a contested convention or a late-stage exit are vastly outweighed by the potential harm. President Joe Biden has the integrity, moral character and record needed to beat Donald Trump in November. Our path to victory lies in standing by Biden and understanding the high stakes of this election.”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/10/2253112/-Stacey-Abrams-It-s-time-to-stop-the-Joe-Biden-doom-loop?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Every JULY poll showed that Trump was losing big in 2016. Also the August, September and most of October 2016 polls had Trump as the definite loser. Every JULY poll showed that John Kerry had an insurmountable lead in 2004. Republicans kept fighting, not reinforcing the narratives that Kerry was definitely going to be the winner because GW Bush was unfit to be president and it was dangerous to have him in office. And come November, those supposedly terrible candidates who had no chance of winning, won.
“President Joe Biden has the integrity, moral character and record needed to beat Donald Trump in November. “
How many people thought Georgia would have TWO Democrat Senators in 2020? And vote for a Democrat for president.
I’m with the person who didn’t pay attention to the polls.
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Don’t Look Up!
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How to deal with an existential crisis:
a. find sand
b. bury head in it
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Evelyn Waugh referred to this as “ostrich-cunning.”
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https://x.com/i/status/1811522021068849297
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https://x.com/i/status/1811520227487912395
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https://x.com/i/status/1811528186683097191
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Brutal.
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Bob, thanks for modelling the civility that flerp! was calling for!
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I thought that a pretty civil response given the other possibilities, n’est-ce-pas?
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“I thought that a pretty civil response given the other possibilities, n’est-ce-pas?”
“I only stole your money, that was a pretty civil robbery given the other possibilities, n’est-ce-pas?”
Bob, I am not bothered by yours and flerp!’s incivility toward me. If you want to keep making your own private/public asides after one of my comments, trying to top one another in snark, as in your Comrade/Commisar exchanges, I accept that I can’t do anything about it as you aren’t going to stop.
What does bother me, however, is when uncivil people have the chutzpah to complain about people being too uncivil here and express their concern that the incivility is getting worse.
I think hypocrisy should be called out. If saying that is “uncivil”, then I am sure you and flerp! will follow up with lots of snarky and insulting comments.
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Stop pretending you are civil. Nearly every one of your replies is dripping with sarcasm and derision. I was trying to avoid writing a comment like this but please, you’re not fooling everyone. Stop the snideness for a day or two if possible and watch and see if it isn’t reciprocated.
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flerp!
hahaha I think people can read the many, many, many snarky replies you make after my comments and judge for themselves.
I do agree you seem to be relatively civil to most other people, with the exception of a few folks whose commentary I sorely miss here.
But if you really want to have a civil conversation, I wish you would reply to a comment of mine giving a SPECIFIC example of what I said that you found too offensive. Don’t make some sweeping, unsupported characterization of the comment.
Quote exactly the line or lines in a comment that you believe are “dripping with sarcasm and derision.”
When I write a long reply to someone who has written a comment that I disagree with, I try hard to explain the reasons why I object. I am happy to acknowledge I am not a great writer, and I am certainly not a concise writer.
But I try not to be a RUDE writer. I wish you’d do the same. Your multiple snarky replies in which you characterize a comment as “dripping with sarcasm and derision” without QUOTING exactly what bothered you is not you attempting a civil conversation. It sure seems like you are just trying to shut me up.
I am always willing to acknowledge I am far from perfect and try to do better. But if you keep attacking me with vague allusions and GENERALITIES about how terrible my comments are, or simply relentless snarky and insulting replies, then I wonder why. Especially when you keep saying you are concerned about incivility.
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I’m not going to get into a pages long back and forth where I show you 50 sentences on this thread alone that are examples of what I’m talking about. This is the stuff Diane doesn’t want here.
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Do you believe Diane Ravitch likes it when you and Bob make snarky and rude replies to me?
Do you and Bob believe that Diane Ravitch approves of you being uncivil to me because you are civil to most other people?
If that is the case – and maybe Diane can chime in here – then I will leave.
I do think we should all try to be civil. It’s easy to point to when when flerp! and Bob are snarky and insulting when they reply to me.
Your replies speak for themselves. I think mine do, too.
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NYC PSP. Can you please just stop. Please. This has gone beyond inappropriate to inappropriate and just weird.
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Enough, please.
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Dear NYCPSP, Bob, and FLERP,
Please stop this exchange. It does not advance any conversation.
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Diane, thank you so much!
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Whatever you think of Biden, you have to admit that he got a fractious Democratic Party to go along with a decidedly complex group of policies. Unlike past administrations, which fell victim to obstruction from a Republican Party, Biden succeeded in getting legislation passed to such a degree that Trump had to intervene and ask for the House to block immigration legislation so he could run on it.
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Liking Joe Biden–or loving him–doesn’t change reality, or the polls, which continue to show him losing in a close race to fascist Trump. Meanwhile, same polls continue to show Harris beating Trump.
Politics has to be more than dreams. Reality intervenes. We can’t wish Biden were younger or stronger, etc.
Then there’s the matter of governing. Yes, he’s doing that today, but how will he be next year–if he should upset the pollsters and win?
A loss to Trump should not be underestimated. If fascism takes over in America, who will come to our rescue? Trumps can destroy our elections, our schools, our courts, so that we may not be able to come back in four or eight years.
Think long and hard about reality.
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The polls….They are loony! How can they actually pull these off so quickly and think that people will believe the results? They have put HRC into a scenario and have her beating trump…….how did this turn out last time in real life! Who are these people developing “the polls”(?) because they sure aren’t bright or informed about what We the People actually want.
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Just as the person who writes for fools is always sure of a large audience, postures of notoriety are reliant on a culture maintained by magical tribal thinking, that seems to be poised to self-destruct under its own contradictions. If they were actually “Running the Show”, it wouldn’t be a …. Show.
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Agree, Jack
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Far worse than Trump winning is Trump winning and the Republicans holding both houses of Congress. The lack of enthusiasm among Democrats this close to the election is disturbing.
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It really is. It’s completely frightening. We could easily be in deep shit soon.
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And “shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic” doesn’t seem like a good way to create enthusiasm.
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The beatings will continue until morale improves.
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“The beatings will continue until morale improves.”
OMG – is that from the no-excuses charter school handbook?
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Gee, where is this lack of enthusiasm? I see a lack of enthusiasm for replacing Biden with some unnamed successor chosen by big donors pressuring vulnerable Democrats running for reelection. I would like to see who they choose to mount a campaign from scratch at this late date since apparently you can’t just give the funds raised for Biden to someone else. They sure better not try to give my money to someone else who I have not chosen to support. That sounds not only illegal but rather autocratic. Don’t get me started on the unethical reporting by our national media.
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Your miles may vary but I see a lack of enthusiasm in every Biden supporter I know. They like Joe and there’s no question that they will vote for him but the main emotion they have is concern—they are worried about him, like one worries about an elderly parent. They also know he’s not the optimal candidate because size of his age and apparent frailty, but they are understandably worried about going into the unknown with another candidate. The ones who want to stick with him feel that way because they think it’s the safer play. That’s not enthusiasm.
I don’t think the campaign money would be a barrier. The campaign could transfer all its money to the DNC, which could spend it on a new candidate’s campaign. (Bloomberg did this with his leftover campaign funds in 2020.) And the DNC already has a lot of money on hand that would effectively become the new candidate’s to spend. And of course money could be transferred to Super PACs.
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What’s this “apparent frailty” you keep talking about? His peripheral neuropathy? It doesn’t seem to be slowing him down much. Do I wish he were ten years younger? Yes. Do I see anyone else who could continue to do the job he has done? No. I find it disingenuous to think that another candidate could wow the electorate the way you think is necessary in the next few months. There is no one who has near the track record Biden has. To continue to harp on what ifs is detrimental to our chances of defeating the felon and wannabe dictator running against Biden. We need to be touting the accomplishments of this administration and the plans for the future and contrasting those plans with the end of Democracy promised by Trump.
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The man appears very frail. That’s the apparent frailty.
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speduktr,
Thank you for challenging that narrative in such an excellent, convincing and concise way.
Similar variations of the points you made so well has been expressed by so many folks both here and elsewhere.
But shockingly, it often seems as all the arguments for why Biden shouldn’t step down get mischaracterized as “don’t believe the video, it’s right-wing propaganda”. Trivializing the argument made by you and many others to that straw man makes it easier to simply dismiss it instead of countering it.
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Jack Burgess writes: “Then there’s the matter of governing. Yes, he’s doing that today, but how will he be next year–if he should upset the pollsters and win?”
Yes, Jack. THAT is definitely the message that Dems need to keep amplifying.
Because it is of VITAL IMPORTANCE that every voter in America understands that no matter what Biden does in the next 4 months – bring economic prosperity never seen before, single-handedly bring peace to the middle east and Ukraine, complete an Olympic caliber gymnastics routine, out-debate a group of conservative Dems led by charter-promoting Senator Michael Bennett out to get rid of a president who is too progressive – you want to make sure the IMPORTANT question is “yes, Biden may seem incredible today, but he is 81 and how will he be next year if he wins the election and thus defies the will of the majority of American who have told pollsters they want Biden to be GONE? What would happen if the will of the majority of Americans who told pollsters Biden must leave is thwarted? What happens next year when this very elderly man’s dementia kicks as it is sure to do?
EVEN IF BIDEN SEEMS PERFECTLY OK NOW, HOW WILL BIDEN BE NEXT YEAR? American voters, BE VERY AFRAID!
Ever hear of a little thing called a Vice President? Or does the prospect of Kamala as VP scare you even more?
I’m not “scared” like Jack Burgess. I am not quaking in my shoes terrified that even if Biden proves himself a better debater than Abe Lincoln himself, it doesn’t matter because HOW WILL BIDEN BE NEXT YEAR?
I’m scare of how Trump is now, and I am scared of how he will be after he’s won, and I am scare of what happens if Trump dies and his right wing VP takes over.
But I do agree that’s the PERFECT message to get out if you want to guarantee that there is absolutely no path forward for a Biden victory. Because if BIDEN wins, HOW WILL HE BE NEXT YEAR?? It’s scary and frightening and WE MUST PREVENT THAT FROM HAPPENING!
Is this for real? That some people here at this blog are repeating the talking points of Michael Bennett instead of the talking points of Bernie, AOC and Stacey Abrams?
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Bennet made a lot of sense to me.
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“Or does the prospect of Kamala as VP scare you even more?”
Yes, it scares the bejesus out of the tRump racist, misogynist cultistas. Cain’t be havin no black woman getting uppity now can we?
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Thanks! I am so glad you replied directly to me. I can definitely understand why folks who trust the excellent, fact-based judgement of charter school advocate Michael Bennett instead of the judgement of politicians who they believe only support Biden to “fall in line” – like Bernie, AOC and Stacey Abrams – want to keep amplifying the message of Michael Bennett that Biden is unfit to be president. And also amplifying the message that even though Biden may be fit enough to be president now – what about next year!!!?? (imagine scary music playing here). Imagine how scary and unfit Biden will be next year if Biden defies the will of the vast majority of voters who have told pollsters they want Biden gone!!!
That’s the “winning” message that’s been amplifies in the so-called liberal media for weeks now.
“shut up and fall in line because we know Biden is too demented to be president and don’t you dare disagree or we will heckle you” seems like an EXCELLENT way to undermine all efforts to create enthusiasm for Biden. Good job with the messaging!
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Messaging? I’m not crafting messaging here, I’m having frank conversations. If you think that you are engaging in messaging for the Biden campaign here, remember that you’re an anonymous commenter on a blog and barely anyone is reading our comments. We aren’t brainstorming ideas for the DNC to implement. We’re expressing our thoughts and feelings.
I think you put a lot more weight in arguments from authority than I do. Bennett’s argument makes sense to me. The argument that “Biden says he is running and so we should stick with him and show unity” is not compelling to me, and I don’t care if AOC, Bernie, or God is saying it.
It’s my view that the Dems are in trouble and that Biden will be playing defense until November because he is not capable of campaigning effectively. I don’t think he can generate enthusiasm because he resembles a hospice patient too often. I think he should step aside and have the party try to come up with a new candidate who can do what Biden can’t. There is risk in this approach for sure, but I think it’s necessary to avoid total disaster in the fall.
Those are things that I think. Reasonable minds can disagree, and that’s ok!
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FLERP,
Everyone, including you, is entitled to their own opinion.
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flerp! said:
“‘shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic” doesn’t seem like a good way to create enthusiasm.”
Not one of the many excellent pieces that Diane Ravitch has posted, not one of the comments by me, CBK, retired teacher or anyone else here is:
“shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic”
But I appreciate that you were only trying to be “helpful” by pointing out that a message that no one has ever said “doesn’t seem like a good way to create enthusiasm”.
I appreciate you were not trying to imply in any way that the argument supporting Biden being made by Robert Hubbell and AOC and Stacey Abrams is “shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic”.
I don’t think “we will continue defending the NYT beating up on Biden and we will beat up on Biden ourselves until the public gets more enthusiastic” is a good way to create enthusiasm for Biden either. If anything, it makes it near impossible to create enthusiasm.
Since you are committed to getting Biden replaced, why not discuss how to create enthusiasm for that?
“shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic about forcing Biden to step down” is not a good message to get enthusiasm for your goal of removing Biden.
But if you want to create enthusiasm for getting Biden to step aside, I can make some other suggestions for what does NOT create enthusiasm:
“This conservative Democrat Senator who is one of the loudest cheerleaders for the billionaires who love charters and hate public education is saying Biden should step down, we must listen to him” doesn’t seem like a good way to garner enthusiasm for removing Biden.
“This guy who was wrong about the election in July 2016 based on July 2016 polls now says he knows Biden can’t win based on July 2024 polls, so we should dump Biden” doesn’t seem like a good way to create enthusiasm for your goal of removing Biden.
“Trump is right, Biden does have dementia and is unfit for office and must go, and anyone who disagrees should not be trusted” doesn’t seem like a good way to create enthusiasm for your goal of removing Biden.
“Biden is unfit for office, and we will heckle people who disagree” does not seem like a good way to create enthusiasm for your goal of removing Biden.
I am happy to discuss at length all the wrong ways of making the case to remove Biden that are not creating enthusiasm for the goal of removing Biden. Whether or not anyone has used them or not.
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Like I said, we disagree, and that’s fine. There’s no need to get worked up about it.
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So. Let’s look at the facts. George Clooney has long been a huge donor to Democrats generally and to Biden in particular. He says that when he spent time with Biden at a fundraiser two weeks ago, the Biden who was there was the same one we all saw at the debate. Based on first-hand observation of Biden now, he is calling for Biden to step aside.
Based on reality, on upclose observation, not on wish fulfillment fantasy.
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I think it’s a pretty small percentage of people today who think what we saw at the debate was an aberration. The narrative of “don’t believe the video, it’s right-wing propaganda” is gone.
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Well, it’s certainly alive and well here. Bizarrely.
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We disagree about whether Biden can win re-election. We disagree about whether Biden stepping aside will be the best chance of the Dems winning.
And apparently we ALSO disagree about whether it is fair or accurate to imply that any of the thoughtful people making the thoughtful case for Biden believe “shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic” is a good way to create enthusiasm for Biden.
To quote (or perhaps misquote) Daniel Patrick Moynihan: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Or maybe you agree with me that “shut up and fall in line and get enthusiastic” badly misstates the arguments that those thoughtful people are making about why Biden should remain on the ticket. Did you just mention it in case they changed their minds in the future and decided to use that message? Because I agree with you that in the highly unlikely event that is their future message, it isn’t likely to create enthusiasm.
The people who support Biden have made so many terrific arguments that would make folks enthusiastic about Biden. Not sure why you are concerned about how much enthusiasm can be generated by an argument they are not making. Or why you want to discuss how little enthusiasm will be created by an argument they are not making.
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Please, tell me MORE!!! I am on the edge of my seat waiting to learn more about your opinion on the question of whether you Biden should drop out, which cannot be clarified often enough, of course, not to mention your opinion about how horrible what you thought Flerp must have been implying was when he wrote, “It’s a nice day,” and how much this matters to the future of the country and to accuracy in media and the prevention of the heat death of the universe, which the New York Times is clearly trying to bring about by next week or so. Please, go on.
And on.
ROFL
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How does one explain how Biden and Trump are now tied in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll?
Has any presidential candidate in history had such a terrible debate performance, then been subject to excessive and unprecedented non-step negative coverage for 2 weeks, and still ends up tied?
People thought that debate performance was bad. People thought that the debate performance showed Biden was old and frail and was far from sharp.
People also did not believe that Biden’s debate performance was as good as Biden gets. They did not believe Biden’s debate performance showed he was unfit and a danger to be in the White House.
But I am sure those that believe Biden is unfit for the presidency can figure out how to convince more voters they are right, since the debate performance and all the voices demanding the unfit Biden step down hasn’t worked on enough voters yet.
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Yes, for 2 weeks the only argument I have been making for Biden is “don’t believe the video, it’s right-wing propaganda”
That’s what Stacey Abrams said, too. And Robert Hubbell. “Don’t believe the video”.
And it is absolutely not disingenuous at all to characterize those who are not joining the “Biden is unfit, he must step down” chorus as pushing one narrative: “don’t believe the video, it’s right-wing propaganda”.
I wonder if you keep saying that because it’s easier than refuting the good arguments that Robert Hubbell and Stacey Abrams and Allan Lichtman made for why Biden should not step aside?
If you can’t make a good case for why Biden must step down (the “but the polls” case was too weak), then set up a straw man argument that no one is making and attack that.
I don’t think that is a good way to create enthusiasm for removing Biden.
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Agree to disagree!
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NYCPSP– Thanks for the tip on the WaPo/ ABC/Ipsos poll out today (7/11), I hadn’t seen it. Very interesting. Shows 2 things: (1)58% of Dems think Biden should leave the race, and (2)Biden & Trump are still tied nationally– as they have been for some time [i.e., debate & GS interview did not change that]. Philip Bump has a piece at WaPo today detailing & analyzing results. Tho these 2 results may seem contradictory, he points out that those who are pro Biden leaving race would vote for him if he didn’t.
There is also a 3rd result: Harris polls ever so slightly ahead of Biden in a Harris vs Trump race– but results are within margin of error.
It is funny to see how media headlines these poll results: they pick either #1 or #2 above– emphasizing the contradiction, rather than the important point, i.e., Dem voters polled stand behind the party either way.
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those who are pro Biden leaving race would vote for him if he didn’t.
I’m one of those, as I think all of us are. And if he did leave the race in favor of Kamala, I think she would get the vote of everyone who is now planning to vote for Biden and those of a lot of young people and black people and independent people who will otherwise sit this one out. So, net increase, better chance of winning.
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bethree5,
Thank you.
I think another possibility is that an unknown percentage of the 58% of folks who say Biden should get out of the race are saying that because they keep hearing that the Dems can’t win if Biden is in the race!
That’s very much the one narrative that the media has been amplifying relentlessly for 2 weeks.
The media is (intentionally?) conflating many very different things that affect voters’ answers to those questions in a poll.
Voters believe Biden is showing the effects of aging = Voters believe Biden is cognitively unfit to be president = Voters believe Biden cannot defeat Trump and he must be replaced by someone who can = Voters believe Biden is so unfit that our country would be in grave danger if he were elected.
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The Democratic candidate. . .
Has miserable approval ratings
Lacks the support of his own party, 58 PERCENT OF DEMOCRATS want him to step down
Has almost zero appeal to younger voters and is hemorrhaging black voters, critical to his success in 2020
Is breathtakingly frail and evinces dementia in his frequent struggles to remember stuff he should know
And it’s not going to get better between now and November. If we continue with the status quo, it is likely that we shall lose. And we might lose the Senate as well. Then we are truly, utterly . . . .
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Here is the poll I would be curious to see:
If it was absolutely guaranteed that whoever is on the Democratic ticket will defeat Trump and be the next president and vice president, which pair would you like to see?
President first/then VP:
Biden/Harris
Harris/Newsom
Harris/Buttigeig
Harris/Whitmer
Harris/XXXX (insert another choice)
Newsom/Harris
Newsom/Buttigeig
Newsom/Whitmer
Warnock/Newsom
Warnock/Buttigeig
etc., etc.
Maybe it’s because I grew up in so-called flyover midwest and I still know a lot of people from there, but it would not surprise me that much if Biden/Harris is one of the most popular answers to that question.
What candidates do you believe is going to have more support that the Biden/Harris team?
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Harris/Whitmer or Harris/Buttigieg
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Ultimately pre-candidacy polling won’t answer the question. There has to be some kind of forum where the people who actually want the job audition for it. The so-called “mini primary” or “speed primary.” It can’t be a decision by fiat. It has to have some degree of transparency. Harris is probably the path of least resistance. But there are other good options. Boy I just wish we did this a year or even six months ago.
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Yes. Biden’s people have a lot to account for for hiding his condition and not urging a change many months ago.
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And certainly there’s no guarantee a new candidate would win. There is risk here.
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My mother and brother aren’t speaking to me right now because I want Biden to step down. LOL.
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NYCPSP– Glad also that you brought up Allen Lichtman, the guy with the 13 Keys, who predicted 9 out of last 10 prez races correctly. I watched his youtube analysis. He says (1)Biden should stay in race for best chance of Dem win, and (2)the only alternative that might work is if he resigned presidency & Harris therefore ran as incumbent– but he cautioned it might just as easily not work, due to risk messy, chaotic Dem Convention.
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Bob– I have to admit I found it so stomach-churning to see a big old picture and featured “NYT Opinion” by George Clooney, I haven’t read his piece yet. Only in America. Gee, I wonder what Lada Gaga has to say.
Oh well, that was yesterday, I’m getting over it. Now I see there are some articles about it, guess maybe I’ll read it 😉
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NYCPSP– Very much agree with your 7/11 9pm post, re: media-driven brouhaha, & its conflation of “voters believe Biden is showing signs of aging = voters believe Biden is cognitively unfit to be president = voters believe Biden cannot beat Trump and he must be replaced by someone who can = voters believe Biden is so unfit that our country would be in grave danger if he were elected.”
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Horse race presidential polling at this point in the election process are less than adequately accurate. In other words they are a crock. But hey, it helps the mainstream media sell ads so that’s all that matters.
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ads not adds
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But the guy who told us Trump would DEFINITELY lose in July 2016 and kept saying Trump would lose until the week before the 2016 election when he said Trump now has a 1 in 3 changes of victory has said in July 2024 that Biden will DEFINITELY lose.
So – according to this totally crazy logic of the “Biden needs to be replaced” folks – the guy who says in July 2024 that Biden will lose must be listened to, because he was totally wrong in July 2016, but he was much less wrong in November 2016.
Multiple choice logic question:
Polls taken in July of election years have frequently been wrong about which candidate would win. In July 2016, one guy who looks at polls said that the candidate losing in the polls had virtually no chance of winning. In November 2016 he said the candidate losing in the polls had a better chance of winning, but it was still unlikely. That candidate losing in the polls won.
Which of these things are true:
One: A poll taken in July of 2016 is a reliable harbinger of which candidate will win in November.
Two: A poll taken in July 2024 is a reliable harbinger of which candidate will win in November because the guy who was wrong in July 2016 but less wrong in November 2016 says the July 2024 poll is a reliable harbinger of which candidate will win in November 2024.
Three: Polls taken in July of an election year are completely unreliable.
Four: None of the above.
My answer is number Three.
Oddly, many folks, even here, seem to believe that answer number Two is the correct one, and thus they have invoked “but the polls” ad nauseam.
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The polls are an uncertain guide. I saw this A.m. in The NY Times that Trump and Biden are tied in the polls. Maybe, as Lloyd suggested, the best strategy is to run with Biden. If he is incapacitated, Harris is President. If she is the candidate now, she will be the target of an outpouring of racism and misogyny the likes of which we have never seen.
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Well said. There are caveats around every decision. One fact remains true. Biden is the only person that ever beat Trump. Don’t let the press write the script.
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And as I suggested to Bob, it is disingenuous to think that all of Biden’s committed voters will naturally support Kamala Harris. Misogyny is definitely not limited to the Republicans and as much as I would like to believe that no Democrats have a racist thought in their heads, I can’t go there.
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Well, she also did pretty terribly in the 2020 primary race. I’m not a fan of hers. But I would rather have her than Joe at the top of the ticket because she at least does not make people wonder if she’s going to keel over mid-sentence.
There is no perfect alternative. There was no “perfect candidate” to begin with (ask anyone who didn’t vote for Biden in the primaries in 2020). A lot of people will be unhappy if Joe steps aside and a lot of people will be unhappy if he does. That’s the corner we’ve been backed into.
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And of course Joe Biden’s doctors are all lying about his health, so, of course, he is going to keel over mid sentence. Apparently that has not been evident in his multiple campaign appearances since the debate.
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I’m talking about appearances, speduktr.
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That’s what I said–campaign appearances.
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?
I mean that I was talking about how Biden appears to voters. Harris is vigorous and does not appear frail. Biden is not and does. I didn’t mean he literally is going to keel over on stage. Although knock on wood.
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I don’t know which campaign appearances you are watching.
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Nor do I know which ones you’re watching!
If you don’t think Biden appears elderly and frail, we will have to agree to disagree. Not much progress to be made debating that point.
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Elderly, yes. 81 is elderly. Frail…no. Peripheral neuropathy can make one appear frail, but does not affect mental faculties in the least. I am willing to defer to his medical team on that one.
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“If you don’t think Biden appears elderly and frail, we will have to agree to disagree”
“Peripheral neuropathy can make one appear frail”
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I know that well. I have diabetic peripheral neuropathy and have to use a cane when walking. And not everyone thinks I’ve lost my marbles. LOL.
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Your marbles are intact.
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If she is the candidate now, she will be the target of an outpouring of racism and misogyny the likes of which we have never seen.
But wouldn’t this in itself galvanize Democratic voters? Especially if there were TWO women on the ticket?
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Dianne and friends,
I am concerned about the level of vituperation on this blog. I think we are all pretty much “nice” people, mostly liberal, expressing our opinions. Can we be kinder to each other? For myself, I’ve worked in and around politics since the 1950’s. My B.A. is in history and government. (Also studied law). None of this make me more right than anyone else.
In the ’80’s I worked as a political consultant-writer, writing speeches, radio-TV commercials, etc. (None of which makes me right on any one point). But I do know that most polls can be useful, especially if you know the way they were constructed, the audience, etc. Also studies of voter attitudes, etc. One study from that era stuck in my memory: It tested voter responses to certain words and concepts. One of the things it showed then–in the 1980’s–voters valued “strength” more than anything else in a chief executive–mayor, governor, president. I’m guessing “strength” would still score high in such a poll today. In the current case–should Biden run again?–part of what concerns folks is a question of “strength.” Does he still have enough to win and to govern? Would Harris be perceived (by enough voters in enough states) as stronger–and stronger than Trump.
In that last regard, I think Harris would dominate Trump in a debate. Remember–like it or not–she really dominated in the debate with Biden et. al. during the last campaign.
Peace,
Jack (Retired and not on anybody’s payroll).
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Agree. It’s gotten worse lately.
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“. . . especially if you know the way they were constructed. . . .”
And that, Jack, is why they should be irrelevant, that they are invalid and otherwise should be discarded. That information is almost never available. There is too much of “the rest of the story” (as P. Harvey might have said) that would serve to discredit the inferences and proclamations that come with the polls.
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Yeah, I still remember studying how easy it is to add bias to polls/survey questions among other means of skewing results. Just look at the interviews done recently that have dealt only with questioning Biden’s health, stamina, yadda, yadda. How about something simple like, “Tell us what you think are your biggest policy successes?” Or, “What do you see as the most critical challenges in the next four years?” That second question is one I would like to see side by side answers from Biden and Trump. Then I would like to see the pundits pick apart Trump’s unhinged rants the same way they analyze every possible conclusion/interpretation that can be drawn from each and every word Biden utters.
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“For myself, I’ve worked in and around politics since the 1950’s.”
My condolences! 😉
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Dear Jack,
I respect your views.
Frankly, I hate it when people who comment on the blog are vituperative to one another. I feel sometimes like a kindergarten teacher telling the children to stop being mean to one another.
I suppose I could delete the nasty comments or edit out the snark.
Diane
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Dear Mr. Burgess,
Did you teach in a small town south of Columbus, Ohio? I’m wondering if you may have been my 10th grade English teacher (’89/90). I had an English teacher with your name who mentioned a previous career similar to the one you mentioned above. If this is indeed you, I recall reading Steinbeck that year; I also recall the the class discussion when President (George H. W.) Bush invaded Panama. Regardless of whether or not you are the same Mr. Burgess, I appreciate reading your posts.
I share many of your sentiments and absolutely agree with your views on Trump. Nonetheless, I think we might also consider the 13 keys established by historian Allan Lichtman. He developed the keys based on elections going back to Lincoln (1860) and claims to have accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 elections. Furthermore, Lichtman claims the polls lack predictive validity.
I’m not necessarily endorsing Lichtman’s 13 keys, but I do think his model is something to consider. If his past predictions hold true, replacing Biden on the ticket is not wise.
Lichtman is in the first part of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt8eRZTas_Q
The one prediction Lichtman got wrong was 2000 with Al Gore, and we know how this Supreme Court would rule if something similar happened today.
Joe
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Thank you, Jack
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Yes, Joe, I confess I taught English at Chillicothe High School. (Teaching was my greatest love, after my wife and kids, of course). One of the things we read was Steinbeck’s “Of Mice and Men.” I’m glad to see you survived the class. I also taught journalism at CHS. And, yes, I was disturbed by our attack on Iraq, under George H.W. Bush. I believe Bush I–former head of the CIA–and navy pilot in WWII–was trying to restore the “glory” and reputation of the US after the debacle of Vietnam. Iraq was, in a sense, target practice–though the oil of the region was appealing to the oil-involved Bush family and others.
As to the prediction about 2000, Gore did win the popular vote, and might well have won Florida and the electoral vote–if they counted all the votes.
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Very neat!
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It’s good to see you Mr. Burgess! That seems almost like a different lifetime. You also had us learn about propaganda techniques. Society certainly could use instruction on that today…
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Working from home, I earn $165 per hour. When my neighbor told me she was now making an average of $95, I was very astonished, but now (ubd-83) I understand how it works. I now have a great deal of freedom thanks to becoming my own employer.I carry out the action>>> https://xne.us/zqb
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I just read the full post by Hubbell. His reasoning is not compelling to me.
Nobody would be disenfranchised unless Joe Biden decides to do it. Biden would not be “forcibly removed.” He has to step aside on his own. If Biden isn’t capable of making that decision on his own, and can be bullied out against his will, that’s more reason he shouldn’t be the candidate. Plus, to state the obvious, this was not a competitive primary. No serious, electable candidates were going to enter the primary against an incumbent. A good portion of the people who voted for Biden in the primary would have voted for other candidates if a serious primary was happening. I voted for Biden in the primary and I gladly would voted for another candidate if Biden had agreed to step down so a fully competitive primary could play out. I strongly suspect there were a LOT of voters like me in that respect.
To be frank, the feelings of Biden’s volunteers are not high on my list of concerns, given the stakes of this election, unless (1) there were a serious risk that volunteers who felt miffed would turn against the party and vote for Trump or not vote at all and (2) there were enough of these miffed vengeance-seeking volunteers in swing states that it would matter. This doesn’t seem like a serious risk to me, based on the assumption that people who volunteered for Biden are loyal Dems and highly motivated to defeat Trump.
This gets it exactly backwards. Dem voters have been making it loud and clear in poll after poll for over a year that they think Biden is too old to be effective for another term. They feel that way because they have watched him with their own eyes. The debate served as a mass-public event that so many people watched simultaneously that it was impossible to keep this reality from breaking through to the surface. This is not driven by media and pundits — it has always been driven by voters looking at reality. What we’ve been seeing since the debate is media and pundits trying to catch up. I know people here disagree about this, but that’s how I see it.
It is not at all clear to me that Trump wants Biden gone. It’s true Trump *might* benefit from the chaos of replacing Biden. But Trump would definitely *not* benefit from the arrival of a vigorous candidate who could inspire the electorate, dominate airwaves and print (and not for speculation about whether they were too old to handle the campaign), and hold his or her own in a debate. By contrast, I believe Trump absolutely loves having Biden as his opponent, someone he can (accurately) paint as frail and (inaccurately) attack as corrupt and ineffective. Trump has a massive following that believes Biden is basically evil, a pedophile, with a drug addict son in the White House, etc. etc. And now Biden appears weak, ready for the taking, and a foil against which Trump can look young. Trump will be looking every one of his 78 years if he’s up against someone 20 years younger.
Hubbell is *kind of* correct about the anti-democratic nature of an open convention but he overplays it. The primaries were hardly a model of democracy. Biden had no real opposition, given his status as an incumbent supported by the party. And turnout was extremely low–maybe 10% of what the turnout will be in the fall.
The “risk” point is Hubbell’s strongest point because it’s undeniable. There is a risk of chaos if Biden steps aside and there’s a risk the chaos turns out badly. It’s a real risk and it shouldn’t be ignored. I think it’s worth the risk. But he’s correct that the risk is real. (Although it’s *not* correct that everyone who would prefer Biden to step down treats the risk as zero-probability — I, for one, don’t.)
Certainly comparisons to hypothetical candidates are speculative. But how Biden will perform as the campaign season grinds on is also speculative. This is all speculative. This point is basically just re-stating the argument about risk. Yes, there is risk, I can’t deny that. But the risk of blowing this election by sticking with Biden is even greater, to my mind.
I know this topic upsets a lot of people, and I’m sorry about that. As I’ve said multiple times, I do not think this is a slam dunk case one way or the other. Hard choices in real life are never that easy. I think reasonable people can disagree in good faith about this, and I hope others agree on that point.
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[bangs head on table]
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1811519226253050195?s=46&t=vV_4bJ7GuABaalzetJofQA
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“My numbers in Israel are better than they are here.”
And in ten short words he explained why, regardless of mental fitness, I’m not voting for him. Israel will likely need a new leader soon, so he should go run there.
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Here’s a new Trump ad.
https://x.com/amazingvideo01/status/1811520227487912395
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I am not going to watch an ad made by the guy who said with confidence that the Continental Army battled for control of airports during the Revolutionary War and that humans injecting bleach sounds like a great idea.
But Biden made a great open statement and he delivered it well — he knew exactly what he was saying. And despite his mixing up names once (as Mike Johnson did when he went on Meet the Press and boasted about how the Republicans had passed the support for IRAN bill), he is replying to questions like someone who has understanding of the question and the answer. I haven’t finished and I am sure he was better in some places and much worse in others, like EVERY candidate except he is held to this impossible standard.
The idea that he should be judged by his gaffes and not the SUBSTANCE of what he said is ridiculous. Do you know often people on tv who are criticizing him have mixed up names? Or Trump himself?
Biden is nothing like Reagan. He understood the questions and had thoughtful answers that sometimes rambled.
Biden has always made gaffes and I am sure he made more later. He also said many good t
It doesn’t bother me one bit that Biden did what Mike Johnson did and other people do and mixed up a name. Really. People do that at every age. Parents do it all the time with their OWN CHILDREN when they are staring right at them – they call them the wrong name or refer to one name when they mean the other kid. At least the parents I know do, so if you tell me your family never does, I will have to take you at your word.
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I don’t like quoting myself, but I’ll repeat what I wrote the other day, describing one of the bedrock facts that everyone can rely on with total faith.
It may not be fair, but we all knew this is how it works.
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Objectively speaking:
Was Biden’s press conference this evening really so different than the press conferences he gave in 2020 or 2021? He’s always been gaffe prone. And yet he did a great job as president.
He looks older, no doubt. But that’s not the knock on Biden. Not that he looks old and frail or is slowing down. It’s that he is cognitively unfit to hold the office of president of the US right now.
I don’t have sleepless nights right now because I am scared that demented Biden is president. I am scared at the thought of what happens when Biden is not president.
I am fine with any Democrat and will support any Democrat and I wish I was as confident as you that Biden needs to go to achieve the victory we both want. I think Biden needs to stay, but obviously if that means that the media will be doing nothing but attacking him, it’s a lose-lose situation either way. And if Biden had decided not to run for re-election 2 years ago, we would be having a similar conversation about how terrible the democrat candidate is*, except it wouldn’t be Biden.
*I say that with confidence; spending the last 4 months of the election cycle discussing how terrible the Democrat candidate is and bemoaning the awfulness of the Dems picking “that” candidate was what happened with Carter in 1980, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, “she who may not be named” and now Biden. Despite the fact that the Republican candidates were far, far more awful, they won.
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I didn’t watch it actually, although I did see the clip of him referring to Kamala Harris as Vice President Trump. In that clip (leaving aside the name mixup), he definite seemed older than he did in 2020.
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He is definitely older than he was four years ago. So am I. I bet we all are.
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This a.m., I had just watched a segment where Biden responded to a long & complex question on trade strategy with China with an equally long and detailed answer, delivered in a deliberate and user-friendly manner [i.e., even I got it 😉 ].
Then the Washington Journal show started, opening topic the press conference, & they showed about 5 newspapers’ front pages, all trashing his performance! They picked out a gaffe and based their headlines on it. Boy oh boy. Really shows exactly where the media is coming from and what their motives are. Whipping up negative sentiment out of thin air for $clicks. Truly disgusting.
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It is truly disgusting. These are not journalists. They are vultures and leeches.
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Biden killed it in that presser. And he is getting no credit for having done so. And these sick f–ks call themselves reporters! They are going to bring about the end of freaking democracy. Then let’s see how they like their work, when the threat of interment and rectification hangs over them as in Putin’s Russia.
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Bob,
You are starting to sound like me!
(I agree with every word!)
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Biden: “When unions do better, EVERYBODY does better.”
Get rid of that guy now! He obviously suffers from dementia!
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This illustrates the fact so well that one can have really sound moral stances EVEN THOUGH ONE IS HAVING FAILURES OF COGNITIVE FUNCTION. And people experiencing dementia commonly revert to stances that were signature for them in their prime.
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Are you a neurologist?
I didn’t finish watching the entire press conference, but I saw the terrific opening statement and the first few question and I liked Biden. He’s never not going to make a gaffe, but that’s different than not having a clue about what’s going on. Trump is what people with dementia are like. Biden seems like an elderly lawyer who still practices and who may be more forgetful and misspeaks more than in his prime, but is still a darn good lawyer because he has 60 years of experience and knowledge to call on when there is a tough question to answer.
I assumed it wasn’t only teachers who suffered from dementia who mix up students’ names or refer to one student even when they actually are thinking of the name of another. (Actually, I know it happens because during pandemic, we got a call from a teacher who thought we were a different kid’s parents!) Fantastic teacher, by the way, not demented at all. I did not judge them for that error. Would it be better if teachers were judged on whether they ever got kids’ names mixed up instead of how well they performed their job of teaching students?
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No law firm of note would let an 81-year-old handle a trial or an oral argument of massive significance. They push you out when you’re 70.
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True, FLERP, no law firm would give a big case to an elderly lawyer (I’m guessing).
But no law firm, no major corporation, no federal agency would hire a 78-year-old convicted felon with a long history of sexual abuse and bankruptcies. O
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I’m about halfway through the press conference. He’s nailing it.
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I was impressed by his knowledge, his humility, his breadth of experience. None of these are attributes connected to Trump.
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So was I. I think him a truly great man. He was quite impressive today. This is a brilliant and timely reminder of how important it is to have him rather than that evil orange guy in the office. It saddens me to call for him to step down, not that what I have to say matters.
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And how much better to have a respectable and respectful person interacting one-on-one with our allies. All I could think, during this, is what an obscene ass Trump would have been making of himself if he were there. Trump wants NATO ended. He wants us to abandon Ukraine, and with it, international law. He’s traitorous swine. Biden there is infinitely better. Trump there would be an obscenity. The man is a walking obscenity.
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Yeah, memories of Trump with NATO are not good.
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Bob, are you giving the press conference positive reviews or did I misunderstand you?
The news coverage is all about Biden saying Vice President Trump instead of VP Harris. Apparently that’s confirmation that Biden has no business anywhere the Oval Office.
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Well, yes. He made that gaffe. But overall, he is doing a great job. Again, I have yet to finish it.
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flerp!,
I know nothing about law firms. But I did assume that it was not unheard of that the person in charge at the law firm was not always the one who everyone wanted to be making oral arguments or “handling” a trial. The person in charge could have other strengths, including knowing who are outstanding attorneys to handle various matters that come up.
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I didn’t finish the press conference either. But it is aggravating that the media will define Biden only by his worst moments and all his good moments will be forgotten. Biden is getting old, no doubt. I will be cheering on those encouraging Biden to step down next year and let Kamala take over if he stays and gets re-elected.
All I care about is the Democrat winning, and I think as old as he is, voters have always liked Biden. I am not sure anyone else can beat Trump. Trump swatted down every single Republican challenger like they were flies – and some of them were quite decent. I think Trump could do the same with a replacement Dem.
But we all want the same outcome — a Democrat victory. I will loudly support whoever comes out of the convention and hold my breath that Trump and the media don’t destroy them.
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YES!
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I finished it. I just was in the middle of it at the time. It’s not long.
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I love the variations on “I would vote for ___ before I’d vote for Trump” that keep cropping up in various articles, comment threads etc. Was reminded of this in one of Diane’s recent posts: a writer used “a warm puddle of vomit” LOL! Before this, memorable others. “A dead cockroach” (was that yours, Diane?) “That pile of dog poo on my lawn” (Bob’s?) Just read “a tuna sandwich” (which reminded me of the cliche about how easy it is to get indicted). Perhaps a series of campaign bumper stickers is in order.
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To Young People, Re: The Coming Election | Bob Shepherd | Bob Shepherd | Praxis (wordpress.com)
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