There is an emerging consensus among researchers that high school grade point average is a better predictor of success in college than scores on the SAT or ACT.
This appears to be the case for students transitioning directly from high school to college. For those who have delayed admission by a year or more, the tests have a slight advantage in math, not in English. The advantage is very small.
“Among students who delayed college entry, GPA didn’t consistently turn out to be more predictive than standardized exam scores. It depended on the subject and exam. Compared to SAT and ACT scores, GPA was a better predictor for success with college English. But compared to the ACCUPLACER scores, the percentage of the variance in college-level English grades explained by GPA was only one point greater. In math, the percentage of the variance in college-level math grades was just a point higher than the percentage explained by SAT scores. GPA was less predictive of college-level math grades than were ACT and ACCUPLACER scores.”
Given the predictive value of the GPA, there is no advantage for students or colleges in using standardized admissions tests.
Currently, in the competition to gain admission to highly selective colleges, parents spend large sums to pay for test prep. Some spend thousands of dollars. The top tutors command hundreds of dollars per hour, even $1,000 an hour.
To see how crazy this is, read this article by an SAT tutor who commands $1,000 an hour. At first, I thought he was jeopardizing his lucrative gig by this public confession, but by the time I finished reading, I realized he had transitioned into online tutoring, which apparently makes lots of dough and works as well as personal meetings. When confronting a mechanical test, a mechanical prep works well.
He writes:
“Nearly every student who came my way was, apparently, a “bad tester.”
“What do most parents mean when they refer to their children as bad testers?
“Bad tester (n.): A student capable of keeping a 3.9 GPA at a competitive high school while participating in four extracurricular pursuits who is nonetheless incapable of learning the small set of math facts, grammar rules, and strategies necessary to get a high SAT score.
“How is it possible that a student who can ace his trigonometry tests and get an A+ in English can’t apply those same skills to the SAT? On the surface, it seems unlikely. But as I learned, parents and students around the country have been conned into thinking that it’s not only possible but standard.
“The first thing you need to know in order to understand the illegitimacy of this entire concept: The SAT isn’t particularly difficult.
“What do you need for a perfect SAT score? A thorough knowledge of around 110 math rules and 60 grammar rules, familiarity with the test’s format, and the consistent application of about 40 strategies that make each problem a bit easier to solve. If you can string together a coherent essay, that’s a plus…
“Kids are remarkable learners. If we give them the tools they need to study, the belief that they can learn on their own, and the gentle support necessary to encourage the process, they’ll accomplish remarkable things.
“On the other hand, if we put the power of education in the hands of figureheads, externalized structures, and programs that dictate what students are supposed to learn, when, where, and how, American students will continue to flounder.
“I’ve seen what students can do and learn on their own, and I’ve seen how students act when someone else is given the reins. I prefer the former.“
The author is explaining how to prep for the test.
Why take the test when your GPA matters more and shows your persistence over four years?
Even better for students would be to skip the test, save your parents’ money, go to school daily, do the work, and improve your GPA.
Diane Ravitch's blog 
Conservatives are attacking Social Studies curriculum in MI.
https://www.bridgemi.com/talent-education/history-gets-conservative-twist-michigan-social-studies-standards
If it ain’t in the bible it shouldn’t be in the curriculum.
Pip. The link produced this message and a narrative from EdSurge.
“The page you requested does not exist. For your convenience, a search was performed using the query talent education history gets conservative twist michigan social studies standards.”
Don’t know that I’d call it “emerging consensus” as that fact has been known for decades.
“Even better for students would be to skip the test, save your parents’ money, go to school daily, do the work, and improve your GPA.”
Overall good advice. Nothing like a little common sense, eh!
At the same time GPA since based on illegitimate and invalid class grades is an invalid indicator. See Wilson to understand why lumping scores from different subject areas and/or concepts of one subject area into one score is an onto-epistemological error and therefore any attempted conclusion derived from that composite score is invalid.
Not the SAT, but another money engine for the College Board is the AP testing scam. There has been an outcry from the teachers of AP World History in the past week because the College Board has decided that AP World will begin in 1450, after the rise of European colonialism.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/ap-world-history-gets-a-makeover-and-high-school-teachers-rebel-611307
“Students taking the new post-1450 course will lose a broad global understanding of history, teachers say…’Students need to understand that there was a beautiful, vast and engaging world before Europeans “discovered” it. Students need guidance and knowledge of the past to understand that when they hear “Africa” they shouldn’t immediately think “slavery,” George said.’ ”
AP World has long been criticized for being centuries wide and an inch thick, which the College Board claims is the reason for the change. Their proposal is that school offer a pre-AP course which would cover the lopped off centuries. There is no corresponding exam for that course. It was news to me that the College Board charges schools for offering pre-AP courses now. Why should schools pay a fee – their teachers do all the work of teaching the class!
“According to a fee structure for the 2019-2020 school year, schools would be charged anywhere from $600 to $6,500 to offer the new pre-AP course, depending on the size of the school and the number of other pre-AP courses it offers.”
A couple of weeks ago, there was an APWorld Open Forum 2018 in Salt Lake City with Trevor Packer of the College Board. During the sessions, an impassioned Oakland, CA teacher took to the microphone, deriding the notion that schools could just pony up for the new course:
“ ‘You are the authority on our curriculum, because it’s on the test, and the schools want to teach what’s on the test and students want to learn what’s on the test,” Amanda DoAmaral, who taught AP World History in Oakland, Calif., for five years, told Packer.
‘You cannot tell my black and brown students that their history is not going to be tested and then assume that isn’t going to matter. … Their histories don’t start at slavery. Their histories don’t start at colonization.’
Packer later says, ‘Let me put this back on you: Why don’t you switch’ and teach the new pre-AP course?
DoAmaral responded that schools can’t afford to offer the new course: ‘They don’t have the money for pencils, dude. How are they going to teach that class?’ ”
While DoAmaral’s defense of the importance of the course content is right on target, as is the criticism that Oakland school have no money, it’s quite troubling that the value of this curriculum is tied only back to the College Board’s AP testing. From a student:
“Pre-AP courses, which don’t end with an exam, are ‘just a fancier way of saying an honors course,’ Black said. ‘There’s no real value to it.’ ”
I’m also concerned that we have a generation of teachers who have been conditioned to believe that value is derived from a standardized test. Ironically, Do Amaral quit teaching last year:
“DoAmaral told POLITICO that she stopped teaching last year ‘because I literally couldn’t afford to do it anymore.’ She now runs a startup that offers AP instruction online via livestream.”
Think College Board, think revenue stream and market share. That’s why David Coleman was hired to run it. He started a company called GROW to track student test performance. He sold it to McGraw Hill for $14 Million. He then wrote the Common Core and landed the College Board job, which pays $750,000. This is a marketing genius.
Let’s not forget that the seeds for AP for All – the National Math and Science Initiative – were sown by a failed candidate for the Texas governorship, Tom Luce. The winner of the gubernatorial race, George Bush, later appointed Luce as Assistant Secretary to the US DOE. No doubt Luce was involved in the “vision” which became NCLB.
The partnership between the Bush families and the McGraw families goes all the way back to Prescott Bush and the founding of the resort town of Jupiter, Florida in the 1930’s. Remember brother Neil’s Ignite scam?
https://www.deseretnews.com/article/907336/Presidents-brother-pushes-his-educational-software.html
Christine, Ap is a real money engine for the College Board, but the scam” is not the proposed change to the AP World History course, but AP itself. Ap is far more hype than it is an educationally and cognitvley helpful program.
Completely agree!
The last school I taught at was turned on its head when a Massachusetts offshoot of NMSI invaded and AP classes took over. We had an innundation of College Board “professional development”, scaffolding for AP classes, materials for test prep, and kids in grade 7 taking practice SAT tests to determine which AP’s they would be eligible for in high school. It was nuts!
One of my students came to me in tears because she wasn’t accepted to all four of the AP classes she applied for. She believed she would never get accepted to college, despite a fine GPA and outstanding extra-curriculars.
The person who was acting superintendent at the time later was appointed to the board of MMSI – tells you all you need to know.
The rule for the math portion of the SAT/ AP/ACT. 20 seconds per question. 2 answers can be dropped immediately and the final answer can easily be made using a math “trick.” Not much math involved….just test taking strategy. This also holds true for the Physics AP exam since it’s “math” based. My nephew scored a 5 (or perfect?) on the AP Physics and he never took a physics class….he read a manual 2 days before the test and used his SAT prep skills.
that alternate lifestyle now being taught to our nation’s children through the endless focus on punitive testing: play the system, win the game
Many years ago the University of Texas awarded automatic admission to anyone in the top 10% of their class based on GPA(since lowered to 7 or 8%). It was a way to increase diversity since Texas schools are so segregated. People moaned that our flagship university would decline, but it turned out those kids with high GPAs, even without high SATs or lots of AP credits, did just fine at UT. Then again, teachers do the grading, and no one seems to trust teachers anymore.
Ok for some colleges to do this, but if adopted nationally, it would be grossly unfair to students in magnet schools.
True. And it’s unfair because some schools have many high-performing schools while others don’t. I think whenever you have only one metric for admission, you’re going to be unfair by default. The whole child needs to be considered, but then people cry that that’s subjective.
What is to be done to ensure fairness in the college application process? Getting rid of all national comparisons (ACT, SAT, AP) would lead us back to the private boarding schools as feeders to Harvard. This is a worse outcome, and far worse for minorities.
I’m not a college admission officer but I perceive that such individuals will weigh SAT with the knowledge that they can be gamed (I.e. the Asian SAT discount subject to current litigation). GPA scores, on the other hand, are subject to the whims of the particular school, and need to be evaluated appropriately. AP exam scores provide some context for the student or school GPA to calibrate grade inflation. Extra Curriculars are perhaps most able to be gamed by the wealthy who provide access and training for their children. All of these measures can be tuned by wealthy parents (let alone the elite schools with preferential admission for legacies and donors).
There is no perfect measure of merit, and colleges (except in California) take into account a number of factors in admissions. Is there a better way?
The point is that whatever route you take, GPA is apparently a good overall indicator of college performance. That doesn’t mean that everyone who gets the same average has been exposed to the same content or level of rigor. It just means that students who have high grade point averages tend to have the skills and knowledge
necessary to tackle the college experience. It isn’t a measure any more than the SAT or ACT. All it says is that there is a significant positive correlation between GPA and “success” in college. We can argue over what success means although we should probably just point to correlations between college graduation and career “success.”
GPA indicates persistence. SAT does not.
“GPA indicates persistence. SAT does not.” – Dr. Louis Profeta was not persistent, he was a slacker. Or, if he WAS NOT a slacker, his teachers were incompetent, all of them (except for PE and singing).
Did you read the speech?
Your bringing in of Profeta here is a tangent meant to distract. He never suggested his GPA much less his test scores related to his later career success. His story suggested if anything that his K12 pubsch experience taught him how to slf-teach/ learn on his own.
“His story suggested if anything that his K12 pubsch experience taught him how to slf-teach/ learn on his own.” – Hmm, this self-teaching skill did not become evident while he was in school. Or maybe the school subjects were too simplistic, boring, uninteresting for him? Which brings back my assertion that he basically lost 13 years of his life.
“Getting rid of all national comparisons (ACT, SAT, AP) would lead us back to the private boarding schools as feeders to Harvard. This is a worse outcome, and far worse for minorities.”
This seems like quite a leap, especially in light of this lawsuit in which Asian parents are complaining that Harvard doesn’t put enough weight on national comparisons. Harvard is motivated to be “selective”, but it’s also motivated to be diverse, which is why they’ve been de-emphasizing national exams.
Furthermore, there are now over 1000 colleges and universities that are no-test or test-optional. Can you cite any studies suggesting that those 1,000 colleges and universities are less diverse than those still using the national tests? Have those institutions had to go “back to the private boarding schools as feeders”? In fact, research seems to indicate that not only have those institutions not done that, they have, in fact, become more diverse: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/04/27/large-study-finds-colleges-go-test-optional-become-more-diverse-and-maintain .
Before the SAT was developed, students from boarding schools on the east coast were favored for college admission (I.e. Harvard), let’s not do this again.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/sats/where/history.html
It’s ok for schools with an art focus or a selective school that can pick and choose, but as a national policy, it would be a huge problem if all colleges were only using subjective metrics to evaluate schools and their students.
THats not true.
The College Entrance Examination Boards were introduced in 1901-02 to make elite colleges open to all who did well. The questions were not multiple choice. They were essays or show your work. They were written by teachers and professors. They were graded by teachers and professors. The SAT was invented by Carl C. Brigham, who believed that IQ was genetic and immutable. The SAT was adopted in 1941 as a response to the war. No one had time to sit around and read and write essays. Read my book “Left Back”
Thanks Diane … I stand (sit?) corrected but it was still a test and could compare all student scores in an objective fashion
The SAT is a revision of the old IQ test. Its creator was a eugenicist and racist. In fact, it measures family income. There are outliers, but they are just that: outliers.
Always useful to have an ed historian at hand!😉
The world is a different place now, AZ parent. Harvard, as a “liberal” university, can’t get away with blatant discrimination against minority students. Plus, they are practically the architect of globalization, so it is in their interests to have a “diverse” student body, at least in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, etc.
Anyway, there is no such thing as an “objective” measure. Any so-called “objective” selection tool is simply a quantification that bakes subjective biases right into the “objective” measure and turns out a number instead of a narrative. We can’t say “affluent white people are inherently more intelligent” any more, but we can design “objective” tests that affluent white people just happen to score really well on.
Dienne77
No one should accept a system that is based on individual views and opinions (I.e. subjective), since bias, conflicts of interest, bribes, and discrimination are sure to follow. My point is that college admissions developed in such a subjective way led to white males selecting white males. Change the objectives if you don’t agree, but at least make the system transparent for everyone to understand.
Dienne77: Like ! Well said.
Sigh. I’ll type slower this time, AZ parent. There is no such thing as an “objective” measure when it comes to subjective decisions such as college admissions. Any “objective” test is simply going to bake subjective biases into the test process. No standardized test can “measure” [sic] who is a good candidate for college. All it tells you is who is a good standardized test taker.
Furthermore, colleges aren’t necessarily trying to get “the most qualified” candidates. Colleges have a variety of motivations in terms of their student body. They want well-rounded students, students of diverse backgrounds, from diverse geographical regions. They want (or at least claim they want) ethical students whose behavior and responsibility is going to be a credit to the institution. And even to the extent “qualified” is a concern, there are all different ways to be “qualified” – a gifted writer, a good scientific mind, artistic and musical ability, etc. Colleges want a representative sample of students who excel in all of those areas. Standardized tests cannot tell you that.
dienne77,
I agree with your sentiments but you left out one group — colleges want very affluent full pay students who are guaranteed to come whose parents might pony up additional donations if they aren’t already legacies.
I suspect those students are admitted at highly disproportionate rates when compared to Asian-Americans or frankly, any group. And very likely with lower average test scores than Asian Americans or middle class public school white students.
I suspect they all have truly superior “personalities”.
Dienne77
I don’t understand your point and you apparently don’t understand mine. We’ll have to agree to disagree.
I’ll leave this conversation with the note that colleges should be able to explain admission requirements, objective or subjective. Without that, the system is rigged or will be perceived as rigged against those not admitted.
No test is really objective.
Agreed, Yvonne. The questions are subjective, the answers are subjective. The scoring of written answers is subjective.
“There is an emerging consensus among researchers that high school grade point average is a better predictor of success in college than scores on the SAT or ACT.” – What about that MD-the-graduation-speech-dude, who was an F student? Kinda goes against the statistics. Although he mentioned, that nowadays he won’t be accepted into college, so I guess he would become a statistics after all.
Did you even read the whole speech?! Did you take any time at all to understand what he was saying? Of course this one guy’s poor performance in high school negates the statistics indicating a strong correlation between high school grades and college performance. (snark alert) In any case, I suspect as he states that aptitude alone isn’t going to get you anywhere if you don’t have the determination and drive to do the hard work. Apparently, he discovered the necessity and the determination to change his attitude after a devastating injury. I’m sure we could put together a portfolio of people who don’t fit the average statistical profile of a high school student who should be successful in college. Duh. Totally not relevant to the contents of the speech.
@speduktr, yes I read the speech, but it really does not matter. I don’t care much about speeches, I’ve heard enough of them through my life, they are for rousing a crowd if you need to start a revolution or just smash some windows.
Here are the facts: he was an F student. Then he made it to become an MD. This is it, this is the gist of his speech. Everything else is just fluff. Oh, and there is a semi-fact, his acknowledgment that in today’s world he won’t be able to enroll college being an F student, which makes his speech even less relevant for today’s HS graduates.
He is an outlier, not as big as Bill Gates, but still an miraculous fluke, which should not be relied upon.
Forget the statistics, dude. People are different. Did you know that? Data tell you about averages and tendencies and probabilities. They are not an ironclad determinant of every student’s life.
If the SAT disappeared, no one would miss it but the tutors. Read my book “Left Back,” which includes a brief history of the SAT. The SAT is a direct descendant of the early IQ test. It’s creators were distinguished psychologists who believed that intelligence was inherited and unchangeable, even though the test results showed that whatever was measured reflected culture, family education, and environment. Carl Brigham, the creator of the SAT, wrote a racist book in 1925 asserting that certain white groups had the highest IQ, while Southern Europeans were far below, and “Negroes” were at the bottom. He ignored the fact that Northern blacks had higher scores than Appalachian whites. William Bagley tore Bagley and his ilk apart in a book called “”Determinism in Education” as did Walter Lippman in a series of articles in “The New Republic.”
“Forget the statistics, dude. People are different. Did you know that? Data tell you about averages and tendencies and probabilities. They are not an ironclad determinant of every student’s life.” – then why are you quoting this research:
High School Grade Point Average is a Better Predictor of College Success than SAT or ACT ?
Choose your side: either you are believer, or you trust the statistics. You are trying to play in both teams.
BackAgain,
Are you pretending to be stupid? Statistics and data are helpful; big data are helpful. But they do not cover the variation in individuals. Got that? The average person loves pizza. Some people don’t like pizza and never eat it. What did you learn?
“Are you pretending to be stupid?” – Diane, I just want to make sure whether YOU consider this offensive if one addresses like this to you. I don’t care, I am not an internet virgin, but you took offense when I called you authoritarian, which to me is less offensive all other things being equal. I thought you mentioned civilized discourse.
“Statistics and data are helpful; big data are helpful. But they do not cover the variation in individuals. Got that? The average person loves pizza. Some people don’t like pizza and never eat it. What did you learn?” – I learned that it is better to sell pizza than sauerkraut to ensure wider market, or conversely if I walk a couple of blocks I am more likely to come across a pizza place.
Anyone who develops policies that concern thousands of people works with statistics not with “variation in individuals”.
Sorry to have insulted you. I take it back.
I got frustrated with your insistence that averages cover every individual and eventuality.
Data are a guide but they don’t represent every individual accurately.
You can have a general policy on admissions but if it doesn’t have flexibility for individuals with great talents (and not so great SAT scores), then it is a straightjacket, not a policy.
I spent probably one quarter of my life on internet forums, so I am not offended in the slightest. I just wanted to point out that your fascination with the Dr. Profeta graduation speech is misplaced. He made it, good for him. But statistically, it was a rare case then and a rarer case now, he admitted himself that he would not make it to college nowadays. Therefore, the message “it is ok to be an F student, you can make it up later” is dangerous.
On the other hand the Sef Scott’s speech was about overcoming a physical and mental condition, it was about day to day perseverance, and yes, about consistently good GPAs. It made him look good, his parents look good, made the school look good, and sent a message to every able-bodied two-legged and two-handed F student that they may have things just a little too easy in their lives. It sent a message that good things are not brought by fairy godmothers, they come with pain and sweat, day in and day out.
Should have posted this in the graduation speech thread, but oh well…
Nu? I am sure I have read before that studies show hisch GPA is a better predictor than test scores re: how kids will do in college – that test scores predict success in freshan yr maybe, but hidch GPA predicts longer-term success. Do we.need more studies!
There’s little question that the SAT and ACT are marginally “good” at predicting success in college. I’ve made this point here numerous times.
The best predictor of success in college is high school grade point average (including an SAT score doesn’t add much). Moreover, research shows that “the best predictor of both first- and second-year college grades” is unweighted high school grade point average. A high school grade point average “weighted with a full bonus point for AP…is invariably the worst predictor of college performance.”
The College Board, which produces the PSAT, SAT, and Advanced Placement courses and tests, now recommends that schools “implement grade-weighting policies…starting as early as the sixth grade.” Yes, the SIXTH grade! There’s nothing quite like hyping nonsense.
College enrollment specialists say that their research finds the SAT predicts between 3 and 14 percent of freshman-year college grades, and after that nothing. As one commented, “I might as well measure their shoe size.” Matthew Quirk reported this in “The Best Class Money Can Buy:”
“The ACT and the College Board don’t just sell hundreds of thousands of student profiles to schools; they also offer software and consulting services that can be used to set crude wealth and test-score cutoffs, to target or eliminate students before they apply…That students are rejected on the basis of income is one of the most closely held secrets in admissions; enrollment managers say the practice is far more prevalent than most schools let on.”
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/11/the-best-class-money-can-buy/4307/2/
The authors of a study in Ohio found the ACT has minimal predictive power. For example, the ACT composite score predicts about 5 percent of the variance in freshman-year Grade Point Average at Akron University, 10 percent at Bowling Green, 13 percent at Cincinnati, 8 percent at Kent State, 12 percent at Miami of Ohio, 9 percent at Ohio University, 15 percent at Ohio State, 13 percent at Toledo, and 17 percent for all others. Hardly anything to get all excited about.
Here is what the authors say about the ACT in their concluding remarks:
“…why, in the competitive college admissions market, admission officers have not already discovered the shortcomings of the ACT composite score and reduced the weight they put on the Reading and Science components. The answer is not clear. Personal conversations suggest that most admission officers are simply unaware of the difference in predictive validity across the tests. They have trusted ACT Inc. to design a valid exam and never took the time (or had the resources) to analyze the predictive power of its various components. An alternative explanation is that schools have a strong incentive – perhaps due to highly publicized external rankings such as those compiled by U.S. News & World Report, which incorporate students’ entrance exam scores – to admit students with a high ACT composite score, even if this score turns out to be unhelpful.”
The study cited on this thread is from a small (a couple of thousand students) study at the University of Alaska. While some its findings confirm what’s already known about the SAT and ACT, some of its findings suggest that another College Board product — ACCUPLACER — might actually be as good as the College Board says it is.
But it isn’t.
The Community College Research Center at Teachers College, Columbia University has done extensive research on ACCUPLACER (tens of thousands of students), and their research finds that ACCUPLACER has “only a weak relationship with educational performance.” Follow-up research found that the vast majority (71 percent) of students who disregarded low placement test scores to take credit classes rather than remedial ones passed the classes.
Author Nicholas Lemann, the Joseph Pulitzer II and Edith Pulitzer Moore Professor of Journalism and Dean Emeritus at Columbia’s School of Journalism, and whose book The Big Test is all about the SAT, said this about it:
“The test has been, you know, fetishized. This whole culture and frenzy and mythology has been built around SATs. Tests, in general, SATs, in particular…”
Princeton Review founder John Katzman was a bit more blunt:
“The SAT is a scam…It has never measured anything. And it continues to measure nothing. And the whole game is that everybody who does well on it, is so delighted by their good fortune that they don’t want to attack it. And they are the people in charge. Because of course, the way you get to be in charge is by having high test scores. So it’s this terrific kind of rolling scam that every so often, somebody sort of looks and says–well, you know, does it measure intelligence? No. Does it predict college grades? No. Does it tell you how much you learned in high school? No. Does it predict life happiness or life success in any measure? No. It’s measuring nothing.”
The amazing thing – as amazing as the fact that some people still believe Trump – is that some people, including lots of teachers and administrators, not to mention students and parents, still buy into the goofiness.
I read the story of the SAT tutor. It is a great story. It does not slam SAT for its “invalidity”, instead the gist of the story to me is:
“When you removed me from the equation, the lesson plans and strategies stood on their own. There were no missed sessions, no forgotten assignments, and no excuses. You either did the work or you didn’t — and the kids who did do the work got the predictably good results that any devoted, consistent course of self-study would provide.”
Meaning, that all the talk about “great teachers” is because either there are no good teaching materials – yes, good textbooks, curriculum, grade-to-grade progression, all this that countries like Finland and China and Japan and Germany have, and also that the American students are unable to learn by themselves, they need teachers who dance and sing and show movies to showcase a particular math or physics or history lesson. This “school must be fun” craze started at least 40 years ago, and it only got stronger when years went on.