Hopes are running high in Texas for a blue wave that sweeps Texas, with James Talarico as Senator and Gina Hinojosa as Governor.

Michelle H. Davis, writer of the Texas blog “Lone Star Left” knows how many times Texas Democrats have hoped for a breakthrough but were disappointed. She’s crossing her fingers and predicting that this time will be different.

Texas Democrats have two stellar candidates. It feels different this time, despite the millions that Elon Musk has spent for Republican candidates.

Davis writes:

If you break a mirror, it’s seven years of bad luck. If you spill salt, you have to throw some over your left shoulder, or else you’ll receive bad news. If a black cat crosses your path, a witch is cursing you. And if you say “Holy shit, Texas is actually turning blue,” before election day, then every pollster adds four points to the Republican margins. 

Last night, James Talarico held a competing rally with Donald Trump in Lubbock. Both events had roughly 4,000 attendees. The Democratic US Senate candidate drew the same crowd size as Mango Mussolini. Did I mention this was in Lubbock?

In 2024, Trump won Lubbock County by 39.5 points. The turnout was 63%.

In 2022, Abbott won Lubbock County by 40.1 points. The turnout was 44.62%. 

One might say Lubbock is a deep-red county. Another might say that Lubbock is a 51% majority-minority county with a history of low voter turnout. 

Let’s look at Lubbock:

Through day 9 of early voting, Lubbock County is up 45% from 2022. West Texas Democrats have been working harder than almost any group in the state. Here are a few of them: 

Left to right: Kyle Rable, Malik Williams, Riley Rodriquez, Diana Luna, and Cathy Broderick

Kyle Rable, running for TX19, started block walking six months ago. In the early vote (EV), TX19 had only 77K votes in 2022, based on precincts. In 2026, the EV is already over 102K in this district alone. This district’s voting-age population (VAP) is only 53% Anglo. Here is TX19:

This district also covers Abilene (Taylor County), which is up 26%. 

TX19 is a ruby red district with a large Hispanic population and low turnout. Now, we’re seeing Hispanic voters and young voters show up in record numbers, at a time when all the data and polls expect them to swing left. That doesn’t necessarily make it a flip opportunity. Maybe we’ll see the needle move, but Democrats are absolutely making a dent in West Texas this year. 

There’s also Riley Rodriquez, running for SD28, which overlaps TX19. SD28 is a 60% majority-minority district. And they’ve had trouble here with the data centers. Rodriquez has become a fixture in this area regarding these data centers, and like Rable, is running a populist campaign. 

Most of the West Texas slate is running on a progressive populist platform. 

From Theo Elections (Lubbock County): 

No matter what happens this election, I’m proud of the West Texas Democrats who have spent all year trying to make a difference where they were told things would never change. 

Where are we at statewide?

Through day 9:

5.6 million voters, or 29.7% of registered voters. And, thanks to the Secretary of State, we don’t have all the numbers in yet. We’re only really missing the smaller counties, so it isn’t that far off. 

Reminder: I’m updating THIS SPREADSHEETwith early voting numbers every day, if you want to follow along.

Rural voters are still getting lapped by urban and suburban areas. For every new rural voter, the cities have added nine. Suburban voters continue to show up early and at the highest rate. 

Theo Elections made a similar graph, but added more categories (not sure how he broke them up). Here’s how it shook out: 

The electorate is moving away from the most Republican parts of Texas and toward the parts where Democrats win. 

A Republican pollster, Cygnal, put this out today:

It’s a national poll, not statewide, but it puts independents voting Democratic at 67% and Republicans crossing over at 6%. 

Day 8 of Ryan Data’s reports: 

Hypothetically, if you use Cygnal’s poll with Ryan Data’s data model, that would put Democrats up over Republicans in Texas right now by roughly +11 points. Of course, this is still with three days of early voting and election day left.

And all I keep hearing is that Republicans aren’t showing up in Texas. 

I want to tell you that what we’re watching right now is Texas turning blue, but I don’t want to be the one to jinx us. 

If a Democratic Senate candidate can match the MAGA Republican president’s crowd in Lubbock, the Texas GOP is in a whole heap of trouble. 

Republicans could still flood the polls on election day. Polls can be wrong, data models can be wrong, and we’ve all been burned enough with “This is the year Texas turns blue” that we should know the differences between trends and results. 

We’ve watched a flailing Democratic Party for 30 years, but this year they have a candidate in every single Congressional and Legislative race. And in places like Lubbock and Abilene, where they’ve long been ignored, candidates have been knocking on doors for six months. 

So I’m not going to say it. I’m not going to say the thing. I’m going to knock on wood, throw salt over my left shoulder, avoid black cats, and go vote.

You should too. Three days of early voting left.