Most nations in Europe imposed strict quarantines, masking, and social distancing. They eventually got the virus under control.
Not Sweden. It took a different route, relying on the good sense of individuals and the hope of “herd immunity.” It didn’t work, according to this story in the New York Times.
LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.
“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”
The results of Sweden’s experience are relevant well beyond Scandinavian shores. In the United States, where the virus is spreading with alarming speed, many states have — at President Trump’s urging — avoided lockdowns or lifted them prematurely on the assumption that this would foster economic revival, allowing people to return to workplaces, shops and restaurants.
In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalized with Covid-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life.
Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death, and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.
Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open. By contrast, Denmark and Norway opted for strict quarantines, banning large groups and locking down shops and restaurants.
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
The moral of the story: Social discipline and leadership are necessary to get the disease under control. In the absence of both, the virus will continue to spread and destroy lives.
The success of both the Swedish and the experiment in lots of red states in the US hinged on everyone being “personally responsible.” In order for the experiment to work, everyone had to be willing to act collectively responsible, and this did not happen. The Swedes were betting on herd immunity, but the process cost a lot of lives. In the US the president foolishly resisted believe that the pandemic was real. He turned wearing or not wearing a mask into a political statement, a foolish move once again. He has also held rallies where mask wearing is optional. Now the president expects Americans to ignore the threat of the virus in order to open up the economy. Both the US and Sweden have lost many lives due to their dangerous, failed policies during the pandemic. Countries that acted swiftly with enforceable rules for conduct have had far better results.
At Trump rallies, one seldom sees anyone wearing a mask.
At the GOP Convention in Jacksonville, Florida, next month, masks will not be mandatory.
Right now, Florida is seeing a surge in infections, which the governor falsely attributes to more testing.
DeSantis is a Trump clone so he has to spin the same web of deceit.
Watch for the GOP Convention in Jacksonville. No masks. Lots of cheering and droplets. No social distancing. Should be interesting to see what happens when these delegates return home. At least six Republican senators have announced they won’t be in attendance.
Texas is also planning to hold the state convention in Houston, but the mayor doesn’t want it. Houston has been hit hard by Covid. Since the Brown Convention is owned by a private-public partnership, Mayor Sylvester may not have the authority to stop it. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5dzy8d/texas-republicans-are-throwing-a-huge-convention-in-the-middle-of-a-coronavirus-spikeutm_source=vicenewsfacebook
cx: Mayor Turner
The problem with relying on people to be “personally responsible”:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/trump-coronavirus-testing-128971
…starts at the top.
Ignorance supplanted even by stupidity.
People are expendable commodities.
Like the proverbial lemmings we rush
forward to disaster.
Uncertainty will eclipse ignorant certainty every time.
Diane I think the virus situation is exposing the earlier problem that has almost always gets lip service, but ultimately falls on deaf ears where funding is concerned:
THE SIZE OF CLASSES. To open schools during a pandemic, AT LEAST teachers need to have smaller classes. CBK
Yes, one super spreader in a small class is much more preferable to your run-of-the-mill spreader in large ones. 🙄
From Worldometer, the seven day moving average for new cases and deaths in Sweden looks optimistic to me. From mid April, the seven day moving average of new cases at 110 per day per million population is now at 48. Deaths have decreased from 10 per day per million population to four tenths.
I think it is important to look at per capita statistics ranked against an array of tens of countries or states before drawing conclusions.
A perfect example of the aphorism, “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
This statistic says nothing about decreasing rates of infections. It says everything about the smaller number of infections because those who have been at no longer measured. Very lazy interpretation.
I am half Swedish American and can offer not an excuse but perhaps a cultural explanation. The Swedish side of my family tends to view things in terms of long term societal benefit rather than individual benefit, meaning that if individuals must take risks that they feel would provide benefits to all, then individuals are willing to take those risks. In hind sight we see that it the choice did not work and I’m certainly not saying they made the correct choice–I am only half Swedish American after all, but it does not surprise me. Of course many things have change since my family immigrated, so perhaps I am making unwarranted assumptions about the current culture.
The problem with the Swedish “experiment” is that it is not science based.
At the time the decision was made by the Swedish government, almost nothing was known about the virus and even now, it is uncertain whether getting covid19 provides lasting immunity , so the idea of herd immunity may not even apply in this case.
Basing one’s policy on an assumption that may not be true is just foolish.
Even if having covid 19 actually provides immunity, if 70%* of the Swedish population has to get covid19 to reach herd immunity and the death rate is 0.5% that would mean about 35,000 people would be expected to die in order to reach herd immunity.
*Herd immunity only works if a very large fraction of the population (>70%) possesses immunity (normally as a result of immunization)