This is a paradox. New federal data show that the four-year high school graduation rate is up to 82%. But at the same time, college-going rates are down.
The high school graduation rate is at a historic high. The state with the highest graduation rate is Iowa, at 91%. The jurisdiction with the lowest graduation rate is the District of Columbia, at 61%.
The 82% rate understates the proportion of students who receive a high school diploma. Reformers decided a few years ago to pay attention only to the four-year rate, without exception. This, students who graduate in August instead of May or June are not counted. Students who took five or even six years to get their degree are not counted. When the U.S. Census Bureau counts the percentage of high school graduates in the age range of 18-24, the numbers are much higher for every group because the U.S. Department of Education’s methodology excludes anyone who required more than four years to graduate.
Jon Marcus writes in “The Hechinger Report” about the decline in college-going rates, especially in community colleges and for-profit “universities.”
He writes:
“Enrollments at colleges and universities dropped for the eighth semester in a row this fall, down nearly 2 percent below what they were last fall, new figures show.
“The number of students over 24 continued to decline sharply—more than 4 percent—according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which tracks this. Enrollment at four-year for-profit institutions plunged by nearly 14 percent.
“U.S. university and college enrollment has fallen 6 percent in the last four years….
“In all, U.S. university and college enrollment has fallen 6 percent in the last four years, even as policymakers push to increase the proportion of the population with degrees.”
Diane Ravitch's blog 
Reblogged this on David R. Taylor-Thoughts on Education.
I’m not sure there’s a contradiction there. The sharpest decline is college students over 24 years old and for-profit colleges.
A lot of things could be happening- the economy is better so they’re working and not going back to school AND they figured out that for-profit colleges are a rip-off.
I think they HAVE figured out that for-profit colleges are a rip off. No one in government could be bothered to regulate or act as advocates on their behalf but eventually they figured it out without any assistance from the people who are supposed to be protecting their interests.
Good for them. If no one in power can be bothered to help protect them from predatory rip-off lenders and scams then they’ll have to help one another.
If I were to take a guess at the reason for the decrease in the number of students attending college, then I would have to go with MONEY. Tuition cost have risen so much over the last 10-15 year to cover the cost of budget cuts by greedy politicians.
They might not see value in it. It’s really complex because all the pieces interact:
“Jenkins and O’Malley are at opposite ends of a dynamic that is pushing those with college degrees down into competition with high-school graduates for low-wage jobs that don’t require college. As this competition has intensified during and after the recession, it’s meant relatively higher unemployment, declining labor market participation and lower wages for those with less education.
The jobless rate of Americans ages 25 to 34 who have only completed high school grew 4.3 percentage points to 10.6 percent in 2013 from 2007, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Unemployment for those in that age group with a college degree rose 1.5 percentage points to 3.7 percent in the same period.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-06/college-grads-taking-low-wage-jobs-displace-less-educated
It’s frustrating for me to listen to politicians because they seem to be deliberately avoiding wages- pay- they don’t want to talk about that so they go on and on about public schools and “the skills gap” and the rest. Talking about wages – stagnant or declining- makes their donors uncomfortable because then we have to start talking about which group is taking a huge share of growth 🙂
I think you are correct about politicians. When reporting job numbers, they select what they want us to hear and put a positive spin on what they reveal. Then, they ignore data like the chronically under employed and those that have stopped looking for work.
How is this not a good thing? Most of those marginal admissions can’t possibly recoup their investment in college. And with costs going up as colleges focus on non-academic amenities, it’s an even worse investment.
As Rubio said, we need more welders!
Are you and Rubio aware that welders tend to be unionized workers?
More of welding is high tech lasers and robotics. We need less of Rubio.
Graduation rates tell us nothing except the health of the graduation accessory industry.
Of course they’re up; we rate schools on them, and they’re a soft target.
They are not a proxy for learning.
“They are not a proxy for learning.”
You’ve got that right Peter!!
I don’t know about anywhere else, but the school district in Philadelphia practices “credit recovery”. A student who fails a required subject in high school must take the class over. But that class can be “taught” by anyone in any subject area. Kids know that if they show up they will pass. Sometimes they pass even if they don’t show up. Principals are under pressure to raise their graduation rate, and the fact that kids get credit for a subject they have not learned is secondary to boosting numbers.
Just like grades and test scores.
There is no achievement gap. There is no technology gap. There is only a wealth gap. Technology is crushing the last of the middle class. The wider the divide between rich and poor with no middle class in between, the fewer people will believe that there is a way out of poverty. Why should I go to school, wind up saddled with debt, and still not be able to buy a house and live beyond paycheck to paycheck?
“There is only a wealth gap..”
Not to dispute your main claim or anything, but the sake of accuracy, I believe we should also acknowledge the (much larger than normal) gap between Donald Trump’s pre-frontal lobes — and the gap between his pate and his hamster hair-piece.
They’re not serious about wages. If they were serious about wages they could do a lot, and they could do it now. They could raise the minimum wage, they could adjust the overtime rule, they could start enforcing existing labor laws on misclassifying workers as independent contractors and wage theft….they could advocate FOR collective bargaining instead of working to kill labor unions…
Instead of doing any of these things they yell at public school teachers and scold young people about not working hard enough. That’s too easy, and it lets everyone who actually has power off the hook.
Poet, you must, however, admit The Donald brain has an impressively elephantine medulla oblongata.
Chiara, if the billionaire boys were philanthropists they would support unions, higher wages, and better working conditions. There would be a flood of scholarships available. They are unfortunately not philanthropists. They are misanthropes. They love computers and the money to buy computers, not people. They are boys who love their toys.
In my view, there is no contradiction. The cost of college is preventing many from going. It is even difficult to afford the dwindling public colleges whose budgets are being cut to the bone even as the economy supposedly improves. Just look at Cuomo’s veto of needed money to the CUNY system in New York. I also believe there is another factor and research has to be done to prove what I am going to say. I believe that the common core standards lead to students who may be less prepared for college. A test prep curriculum cannot prepare students for college level work. One cannot learn to analyze by reading short passages and describing their structure. It is a curriculum that avoids the discussion and debate of ideas. In addition, the common core focuses mostly on the structure of writing minus the real teaching of grammar and putting together coherent ideas. When I tutor students for the SAT/ACT, even the best students have difficulty with the writing sections of these tests in which they have to identify grammar errors or determine if a piece of writing clearly develops a particular idea. And even though many students can write introductions, body paragraphs and conclusions, many cannot put together two meaningful thoughts. It is an irony of all ironies that the only thing these reformers have accomplished in a society that is LESS COLLEGE AND CAREER READY.
I would agree with you that students are less prepared. I made the same statement three and a half years ago. I proposed the theory that teachers are being restrained so much that they are not allowed to teach and challenge the students.
https://davidrtayloreducation.wordpress.com/2012/05/10/teachers-the-best-trained-fleas-in-the-state-of-texas/
As part of my research I found an research report on the number of students that actually graduate, given double the normal time.
Click to access Time_Is_the_Enemy.pdf
Many states have used the word rigor or rigorous to describe an implied raising of the expectation for student production. I think that the best description of rigor that I have heard is “what do the students produce”? If the students are not producing higher quality work then it means that the it is not more rigorous.
http://hechingerreport.org/rigor-its-all-the-rage-but-what-does-it-mean/
Until teachers are allowed to TEACH, then students will continue to regress. With the current “teach to the test, then test model” there is no authentic learning occurring, just pass the test learning.
KrazyTA, you’re correct…
You are so right, and it’s only going to get worse as more and more students and their families choose not to take on a lifetime of debt with the end result being their children can’t find decent-paying jobs but are saddled with massive debt. My goal is to keep exposing the salaries of administrators and sports programs that milk their money from excessive and outrageous college tuitions. Common Core is absolutely destructive to a decent education for our children and does not prepare them for college. They do word sorting, non-stop math, but very little comprehension, thinking skills, and writing skills
Does anyone know of a good analysis looking at the variations in now states declare “graduation”? My understanding is that there is tremendous latitude for states to use different standards of graduation. Here in Oregon only a single type of diploma had been counted up until this year. Now we have added modified diplomas for special Ed students. My understanding is that some states have more variations on a diploma – making comparisons of state by state rates comparing apples with oranges. But… I don’t have access to a good analysis looking at this question.
Policymakers aren’t really working that hard to increase enrollment or the benefit (in relation to the cost) of attending college. It’s just that “college and career ready” sounds better than “exploitable populace with adequate workforce skills”. Try validating misguided policy or running for office with that slogan.
I love that phrase…I will have to remember that. The sad part is how truthful that statement is.
“college and career ready” always makes me wonder – ready for what?
Let’s say for the sake of argument that this is true:
“Enrollments at colleges and universities dropped for the eighth semester in a row this fall, down nearly 2 percent below what they were last fall, new figures show.”
Does it also mean that the Common Core’s zeal to get students college-ready is preparing them for something they don’t want to do?
I work at a community college. I teach those graduates. I’m not sure the graduation rate is a meaningful metric. My students are woefully underprepared for post secondary education high school diploma notwithstanding.
Thanks. In reality, a diploma is not a certificate of learning.