Michael Hiltzik writes about business for The Los Angeles Times. In this column, he reviews Trump’s record on issues involving working people and unions. Although he is now positioning himself as a friend of workers, Hiltzik demonstrates that his record shows otherwise.
It is exceedingly odd that the Teamsters Union refused to endorse either candidate. One is a friend to organized labor; the other is hostile to unions. The difference between Trump and Harris is stark. What’s with the Teamsters? Be it noted that the Black Caucus of the Teamsters broke ranks and endorsed Harris, as did a Teamsters local in Chicago. West Coast teamsters also endorsed Harris. Other locals may follow those defections. But the crucial locals are in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Hiltzik wrote:
Donald Trump, in his determined effort to claim the mantle of friend of the working man and woman, unveiled a proposal the other day to make overtime pay tax-exempt.
“People who work overtime are among the hardest-working citizens of our country, and for too long, no one in Washington has been looking out for them,” he told a rally in Tucson.
Let’s be blunt about something here: Anyone who buys Trump’s pose about this is the mark in a con game. Trump’s claim that no one in Washington has been looking out for overtime workers was never as true as it was during the Trump administration, which slashed overtime protections for more than 8.2 million workers.
Trump’s Department of Labor was a black hole for worker rights. The agency abandoned an Obama administration policy that would have favored more than 4.2 million workers. The Biden administration restored the Obama rule and went further.
And that was just on overtime. As president, observed economic commentator Pedro Nicolaci da Costa in 2019, Trump pursued “the most hostile anti-labor agenda of any modern president.”
Before exploring Trump’s manipulation of overtime regulations, let’s examine his overall record on workers’ rights.
In 2019, Trump appointed as his Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia, son of the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. The new labor secretary had made his career as a corporate lawyer fighting pro-worker policies. In 2012, the Wall Street Journal had labeled him one of the financial industry’s “go-to guys for challenging financial regulations.”
Scalia had helped Walmart overturn a Maryland law mandating minimum contributions by big employers for workers’ healthcare, defended SeaWorld against workplace safety charges after a park trainer was killed by an orca (he lost that case), and had written extensively against a federal regulation expanding ergonomic safety requirements.
He had written that the latter rule, proposed by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, “would require businesses to slow the pace of production, hire more workers, increase rest periods and redesign workstations or even entire operations.”
No legitimate candidate for secretary of Labor would have regarded that policy as a bad thing, but Scalia condemned it in print as “the most costly and intrusive regulation in [OSHA’s] history.”
Scalia’s predecessor as secretary, Alexander Acosta, had gone to Congress to oppose measures to raise the federal minimum wage, which has been stuck at $7.25 an hour since 2009 to $15 in steps. It shouldn’t need mentioning that this was an extraordinary position for a secretary of Labor to take.
(Acosta, it may be remembered, lost his job after revelations about his role in soft-pedaling sex-trafficking charges against Jeffrey Epstein produced a political uproar.)
Trump remade the National Labor Relations Board along the same lines. In a key move, his NLRB scrapped the effort under Obama to expand the definition of “joint employer,” which would have made big franchisers such as McDonald’s jointly liable with their franchisees for violations of employees’ wage and hour rights.
The Trump NLRB’s proposed definition would narrow the joint-employer standard “to the point at which many workers would find it nearly impossible to bring all firms with the power to influence their wages and working conditions to the bargaining table,” according to the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute.
Put it all together, and Trump had turned the Department of Labor into the “Dept. of Employer Rights,” I wrote.
Now to the overtime rules. As my colleague James Rainey reported Sunday, Trump’s proposal to make overtime pay tax-exempt was part of a passel of purported tax cuts for the working class, including tax exemptions for tips and Social Security benefits, all of which economists saw as “gimmicks” and “shams.”
In 2016, Obama had raised the ceiling making salaried workers eligible for time-and-a-half overtime — that is, working hours exceeding 40 hours per week — to $47,476 in annual wages, up from $23,660. The ceiling would be adjusted regularly to overall wage growth. Hourly workers typically get overtime after 40 hours, but salaried workers receive overtime pay if their wages are below the ceiling.
The Obama administration’s idea was to narrow the practice of low-wage employers to designate workers as “managers” to exempt them from the OT rule while paying them an hourly wage. (That’s why fast-food restaurants are always suspiciously loaded with “general managers, assistant managers, night managers, managers for opening and closing and delivery,” as former New York prosecutor Terri Gerstein observed in 2019.)
It was estimated that the new rule would give 4.2 million workers new overtime protection.
The Obama rule was blocked by a federal judge in Texas. When Trump came into office, his Labor Department refused to defend the rule in court. Instead, the agency proposed a new rule reducing the wage ceiling to only $35,568. That was nearly $20,000 below the level that would have been reached by the Obama rule, as it was adjusted for wage inflation. The Trump rule was not indexed.
Some 8.2 million workers who would have gained OT protection under Obama were left behind by the Trump rule, Heidi Shierholz of the pro-labor Economic Policy Institute calculated. They would be deprived of a combined $1.4 billion in pay annually.
The 8.2 million workers left behind, Shierholz estimated, included “4.2 million women, 3.0 million people of color, 4.7 million workers without a college degree, and 2.7 million parents of children under the age of 18.”
The Biden administration restored the Obama rule, and then some. The new rule set the ceiling at $844 per week, or $43,888 for a full-time hourly worker, as of July 1.
On Jan. 1, the salary ceiling will rise to $1,128 per week, or $58,656 annually. After that, it will be indexed every three years. The new rule will benefit an estimated 4.3 million workers, more than half of whom are women and about one-fifth workers of color.
Among the largest groups of affected workers, EPI estimates, are those in healthcare and social services.
Whether Trump has sat down to map out a pro-worker policy is doubtful in the extreme — it’s not a concern he has ever displayed in the past. He appears to have blurted out the overtime policy as part of what the Irish writer Fintan O’Toole aptly describes as “the surreal bricolageof his rally speeches.”
But a clue can be found in “Project 2025,” a road map for a second Trump term drafted by the right-wing Heritage Foundation. (Trump claims to have nothing to do with this 900-page tome, but no one really believes him.)
Project 2025 would shrink overtime coverage materially. It advocates cutting the compensation subject to time-and-a-half to salary only, excluding pay for such benefits as healthcare, retirement, education, child care or paid meals. Under existing law, the only compensation that can be excluded from the calculation is pay for expenses a worker pays on the employer’s behalf, discretionary bonuses, gifts on special occasions, and vacation and sick pay.
The Project also advocates indexing the ceiling once ever five years rather than three years, which would slow its rate of growth, and index the ceiling to consumer inflation, which tends to grow slower than wage inflation, the current index.
The Project also advocates allowing employers to calculate overtime hours over two or four weeks rather than weekly, which would allow them to require workers to put in more than 40 hours some weeks and make it up in others. That sounds like an open invitation to employer manipulation of work schedules.
Trump’s record on worker rights is clear as day. Do you really think he’ll be looking out for the men and women in the rank and file?

The union says its decision was informed by polling of its members, who prefer Trump by a pretty wide margin.
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Trump “loves the uneducated” because he can use them as pawns in his game of power and wealth. Some truckers may be swayed by Trump’s tough talk. My son-in-law is a long-haul trucker. These folks have little time to be informed about most things. They spend weeks on the road sleeping in their trucks. They go home for a weekend every two or three weeks, Then, they are back out on the road. Their biggest source of information is their GPS.
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FLERP! Why would Teamsters prefer an anti-union guy?
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My total guess would be blue-collar cultural stuff, but that is a guess.
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The Teamster I spoke with at one of my schools last school year told me that the Democrats didn’t support unions like they claim and that the country needed to get back to religion.
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Pennsylvania Teamsters endorsed Kamala, breaking with National Teamsters
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This is one example of a MUCH LARGER problem. Everywhere else in the world, labor understands that progressives are on their side and conservatives aren’t. Except here, where labor votes against itself ALL THE TIME.
So, here’s the BIG QUESTION: how do we reverse this? Joel?
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I would say that the polling of Sean O’Brien, whose actions firing mostly Black employees during the pandemic caused the Teamsters to pay a huge settlement, was 100% for Trump.
Are you talking about the laughable “national electronic poll” taken after the Trump-Harris debate that Sean O’Brien is citing to give credibility to his narrative? Those sound like those call-in polls that people are always trying to skew.
There was no professional polling done. When each Teamsters local had straw poll before Biden stepped aside, Biden won 44-36%. But Sean’s union said there were more recent “surveys” where Trump supposedly crushed Kamala – based on what were clearly unscientific “surveys” (including one that was supposedly from the back of the union’s magazine).
No doubt there is plenty of Trump support, but that support is strongest with the LEADER, and Trump is less popular with the membership.
Sean O’Brien isn’t “following” his membership who support Trump. HE likes Trump – he liked Trump even when Biden was still in the race and he knew that the membership straw poll showed relatively little Trump support.
Trump gets only 36% in a straw poll when Biden is in the race, so the teamster leader goes to speak at Trump’s convention? Yes, seems something is quite rotten.
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You obviously know a lot more details of what internal polling they did than I do. I only know what I read in the papers.
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You informed us that “The union says its decision was informed by polling of its members”, which is of course true – that is what the union says its decision is informed by.
But when you realize that this is the union led by the guy who appeared at the RNC back when Biden was still the nominee, it’s worth not taking what the guy said at face value.
Obviously the union members who live in the swing states where their votes matter seem more inclined to support the Democrats. I doubt that they prefer Trump “by pretty large margins”. There is certainly support of Trump, but it’s also clear that Sean O’Brien is amplifying the Trump support because HE supports Trump.
There was something odd about the whole thing where the guy who clearly supports Trump says that the Teamsters won’t endorse any candidate but the membership widely supports Trump.
What’s the point of that? Why not endorse Trump? Do what he membership wants? This is just another sneaky way to imply Trump support is greater than it is.
Shouldn’t there be a lot of union members who are outraged because they want Trump and the Teamsters won’t endorse him even though they all want Trump by huge margins?
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Please stop with these stupid nitpicking responses. It clutters up the thread. People have complained about it.
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Are you sure O’Brien is a Trump supporter? When Trump laughed with Musk about Musk’s firing of workers O’Brien’s response was “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism,”
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Am I nit-picking Sean O’Brien? Apologies.
ArtsSmart, I don’t know that he is a Trump supporter – he obviously felt fine about appearing at the RNC which you recall was when Biden was the nominee and he was supposedly more popular with union members.
Diane Ravitch posted above that the Pennsylvania Teamsters broke with the national union and endorsed Kamala.
It seems logical to assume that since (we are told) polling proves that the membership of the Teamsters is 2/3 for Trump, that we will see lots of other state Teamster unions endorse Trump.
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“Following the Republican National Convention and Biden’s campaign exit, the Teamsters commissioned a national electronic poll of its 1.3 million members, overseen by an independent third party. During a voting window from July 24-Sept. 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris.
“In the past week, following the Democratic National Convention and recent Presidential debate, the Teamsters commissioned independent polling firm Lake Research Partners to conduct the union’s final national survey. In the poll ending Sept. 15, Teamsters selected Trump by 58 percent for endorsement over 31 percent for Harris.”
From the website of The International Brotherhood of Teamsters.
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Bob,
Correct, that is what the National Teamsters/Sean O’Brien released as their commissioned polls which showed that the Teamster Union members support Trump by incredibly large margins.
You correctly pointed out that according to the polls that Sean O’Brien is citing, barely one out of 3 union members (if that) want Kamala to be president – while Trump polls twice as high.
So why are all those battleground state Teamster unions endorsing Kamala? Including in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Is it really the Teamster leadership of those 2 states going against the wishes of 2/3 of its rank and file members to endorse Kamala?
The Teamsters national union releases that poll citing a huge pro-Trump majority among the rank and file while simultaneously ignoring that huge support for Trump and holding their endorsement – and Trump gets all the headlines that this is a sweeping victory for him. Why not just endorse Trump if 2/3 of the rank and file membership really wants Trump to win?
I think it’s weird that there would be a rush of local and regional Teamster endorsements for Kamala and not even more regional endorsements for Trump since we know for a fact that the rank and file supports Trump by huge margins.
I imagine the Teamster rank and file is outraged that the union didn’t endorse Trump since it is absolutely certain – according to the national union official who appeared at the RNC – that their own commissioned polls show the members support Trump 2-1. So if there aren’t a lot more regional/state Teamster endorsements for Trump than Kamala, that would be odd.
I am glad that it appears that the teamsters who live in battleground states are more pro-Kamala on average than teamsters nationally. Or maybe they are just led by pro-Kamala union leaders who spurn what their pro-Trump members want. I find that hard to believe, but that could be true.
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You haven’t known any truck drivers, I take it.
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Actually, I do, someone who is married to a relative, and while we have never talked politics, I suspect that person is pro-Trump as their spouse was in 2016. (Although maybe they weren’t even a teamster – do all truck drivers have to be in the union?)
But I still don’t understand why that is relevant.
Why would those state and regional teamster unions in swing states have endorsed Kamala against the wishes of nearly 2/3 of their membership which specifically wanted them to endorse Trump? I am not a union member, but I’d think that there would definitely be some pushback and if those local unions were endorsing anyone, it would be Trump, not Kamala.
Maybe wiser folks can explain this to me. Because from an outsider’s eyes, it appears either that Trump is NOT wildly popular in swing state teamster unions or that he is wildly popular with the rank and file, but the regional and local union officials are blowing off the wishes of their own members, while the national union respects the rank and file members a lot more (but not enough to endorse Trump like 2/3 of them want).
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My stepfather was a truck driver. I’ve known LOTS of truck drivers. They have almost all been, in my experience, Archie Bunker style extreme conservatives. This decision is not in the least bit surprising. And polls have consistently showed for decades now that rank-and-file blue collar workers in the United States tend to be extremely conservative. I suppose that it is your prerogative to write and write and write about topics OF WHICH YOU KNOW NOTHING, but it gets tedious.
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It has become a truism in American politics that rank-and-file blue collar workers here tend to be very conservative. This has been so ever since Nixon and the culture wars of the 1970s. The only thing surprising about this outcome is that it would be surprising to anyone given how things work here.
The question worth considering is how, exactly, to win back labor in the U.S. to progressive causes.
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This won’t happen anytime remotely soon. It would require either removing many of the cultural wedge issues that the GOP exploits—and even if that were a priority of the Dems, which it is not, the process of re-branding the party would take decades and decades—or changing the party’s policy priorities to things that would benefit these people so much and so concretely that their self-interest would overwhelm the wedge issues. I don’t think either of these are going to happen in my lifetime.
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that sounds right to me
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Bob, I never said I was an expert on truck drivers, so please stop putting words in my mouth. I readily defer to your superiority in knowing the mindset of teamsters due to your knowing “LOTS of truck drivers”. I simply was trying to understand why Kamala was getting endorsements from LOCAL AND REGIONAL Teamster Groups if the rank and file was so heavily against Kamala and pro-Trump.
Now, perhaps someone else might know why local and regional teamster groups in Western Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin endorsed Kamala when 2/3 of their membership wanted to endorse Trump.
Are these local teamster unions spurning their own very conservative Trump-supporting members to do something their rank and file strongly opposes by endorsing Kamala? Or is it remotely possible that the stereotype of teamsters being mostly Trump-supporting truck drivers simply not true in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan?
I strongly object to the idea that Democrats have to shut up and stop being “woke” on cultural issues to appeal to teamster rank and file members. Democrats should not be wasting their time competing for votes of the people who aren’t at all bothered by Trump’s racist and xenophobic hate-filled language.
If a democrat expressing support for trans rights or Black Lives Matters upsets them more than Trump’s racist and xenophobic lies and inciting an insurrection, then the problem isn’t the Dems. It is the values of the people who are voting.
And the Democrats SHOULD be standing up for those “cultural issues”, not running away from them because some right wing Republican and the media scrum they influence is telling them that Haitians kidnap and eat their dogs, or that their kid will go to school as one gender and then come home as another gender after the school gives permission for an operation.
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Gee. Cut the response pretty short this time, huh? Not even CLOSE to your personal best. Please deluge this blog tomorrow with HUNDREDS of weird, illogical, unwarranted-supposition-based posts proving that Teamsters for being misrepresented by their national. We all have come to expect nothing less. With that said, please, carry on.
And on.
And on.
And on.
And on.
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My friends who are union activists in the movie industry said they’ve had arguments with Teamsters who are Trump supporters and said that no amount of logic could get these Teamsters to understand that Trump and the GOP are anti-union. I had a similar conversation with the plant manager at one of my schools. I was tempted to show him the video of GOP Senator Markwayne Mullin attacking the teamsters & their leadership during during a Senate HELP Committee hearing on the Pro Act. In this heated exchange Senator Mullins threatens to beat up the head of the teamsters. I don’t get it. Here’s the Teamsters polling data.
“From April 9-July 3, nearly 300 Teamsters local unions nationwide conducted first-of-their-kind Presidential town halls, soliciting endorsement preferences from members via straw polls. The in-person voting was held prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race. The Teamsters’ polling data shows members backed Biden 44.3 percent to Trump’s 36.3 percent.”
“In the past week, following the Democratic National Convention and recent Presidential debate, the Teamsters commissioned independent polling firm Lake Research Partners to conduct the union’s final national survey. In the poll ending Sept. 15, Teamsters selected Trump by 58 percent for endorsement over 31 percent for Harris.”
For some reason the Teamsters shifted their support to the GOP when Harris became the nominee. She better get out there and make it known that she supports them.
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If that’s the case, and the 58-31% advantage is really for Trump, than Kamala shouldn’t waste her time as it means that those folks are racist and would not vote for Kamala regardless. She should concentrate on getting out the vote, not wasting her time.
When you and people you know interacted with union members you knew personally, you couldn’t move the needle one bit. They are convinced and nothing Kamala says is going to change their mind.
Trump voters are not interested in reason because they, like Trump, “already know”. And the more they hear “polls show almost everyone agrees with you”, the more certain they are that they must be right. Do what Kamala does and say “I will still be working for union members regardless because I will be a president for all people” and ignore the Teamsters for the idiots they are. Or it should be Bernie out there asking why they are so determined to elect anti-union Republicans, not Kamala wasting her time.
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How much Teamsters history do you know? Because the Teamsters I’ve known would no more endorse Kamala Harris than they would endorse PeeWee Herman.
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Exactly so
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But they did endorse Hillary in 2016.
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There’s a good article about the non-endorsement of Harris in Jacobin. Dustin Guastella thinks the Teamster’s polling showing 58% support for Trump makes sense because national polling shows that “56 percent of non-college-educated voters overall support Trump”. History is always changing. The democratic party is no longer the party of the non-educated working class.
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I saw that and my reaction was, “well, kind of.” To some degree “no college” seems like a decent proxy for Teamster members, but on the other hand the percentage of non-college educated people who belong to unions is quite low, versus 100% for Teamsters. Union membership is certainly a variable you need to control for when making predictions about how people will vote.
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But your point about the GOP becoming the party of the working class is well-taken.
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I have, here, again been excoriated, above. I’m getting used to this happening. This time it was for pointing out that blue-collar workers in America, and truck drivers in particular, are extremely conservative and that, FOR THAT REASON, the poll results from the Teamsters are unsurprising. This is getting to be regular occurrence. [sighs deeply]
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It’s hard to imagine the GOP as the party of the working class, since their goal is to eliminate every federal program that protects the working class.
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It’s the cultural stuff. They feel like the GOP is more like them than the Dems. And yes there are a lot of stupid people out there. It’s unfortunate that they have most of the guns.
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One of my sons is a blue-collar worker–an auto mechanic. He works with a lot of other mechanics, most of Hispanic heritage. They are almost all utterly ignorant of politics. All they know and care about is that Trump opposes gun control. They are all Trump supporters.
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It takes a high level of stupidity to be neutral in a contest between your friend and your enemy.
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I have respect for people who vote for Republicans because they oppose all gun control and they want to ban all abortions. They SHOULD vote for Republicans because Democrats are not going to give them what they want (which is one reason other people support Dems).
Just like I can respect their reasons if they are racists or xenophobic or white supremacists. The Republican party does reflect their values. The Democrats don’t.
If that’s what is meant by “cultural stuff” then it makes sense.
But too often people deny that is what “cultural stuff” means, and the media never follows up – just accepts that there is something else that reasonable people might feel is “culturally bad” that never has to be explained.
Having seen the conversations between two friends from the exact same background, where a conservative who isn’t pro-Trump is very politely trying to have a political conversation with their friend or family member who is pro-Trump, it’s amazing how fast any attempt to follow-up about what is “culturally bad” is answered by a string of invectives along the lines of “Haitians kidnap and eat pets” or “Democrats want open borders” or “Dems want to take away all our guns” or “public schools are letting kids have gender-changing operations without their parents permission” or “public schools are teaching white students to hate themselves” or “public schools are teaching kids to be gay” or “the teachers union is protecting pedophile teachers” or “Teachers unions hurt children by closing schools during covid because they are lazy and selfish.”
Is gay marriage part of the “cultural stuff” that causes blue collar teamsters to vote Republican? Is allowing gay teachers to teach in schools part of that “cultural stuff”? At what point do we address what it really is that draws people to Trump instead of using the euphemism “cultural stuff” that blames the Democrats for supporting and defending the policies they should be supporting and defending.
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Gay marriage isn’t really a cultural wedge issue. About 70% of Americans support it.
Affirmative action is a cultural edge issue. A particularly bad one for Dems, because most Americans dislike it.
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“It takes a high level of stupidity to be neutral in a contest between your friend and your enemy.” Krystal Ball said that the Biden/Harris admin was the most pro-union admin in her lifetime. “Because of the American Rescue Plan and the support of Congressional Democrats who passed it without a single Republican vote, over 1 million union workers and retirees have already been protected from brutal cuts of up to 75% to the pensions they sacrificed so much to secure.” I would like to interview some Trump supporting teamster and ask them why they support the party that voted against protecting their pensions.
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Teamsters aren’t known for their brights.
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Does the national teamsters union’s leadership still have ties to the mafia’s like they did when Hoffa was the president of the union?
If so, that may explain why? Traitor Trump also has a long history with the mafia.
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In China, when the CCP’s state-controlled media reports something about a sensitive issue, most of the Chinese people think the opposite is true. That shows how much China’s vast population trusts what the CCP’s state-controlled media reports.
When Traitor Trump speaks or tweets, I think it’s all lies. It is also a tragedy that the MAGA cult in the US is incapable of telling the difference between Traitor Trump’s endless flood of lies and what is the truth based on facts.
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A few years back, I was working for a large publishing house. Everyone got an email from the CEO saying that there was unfounded rumor going around that ______ [a C-level executive] was being terminated, and there was absolutely no truth to this.
And after that email, a member of my staff said to me, “So, they are canning him, right?”
And sure enough, the following week we all got the memo from HR saying that ______ was, unfortunately, leaving the firm to pursue other opportunities in his life and would be greatly missed and we hate to see him go and wish him success in his new endeavors, blah blah blah blah.”
You could count on the fact that EVERYTHING this guy put in an all-staff memo was false. People learned this quickly.
So, when we all got the memo from him that there was “no truth to the rumor that the company was being sold,” . . . Guess what?
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The Washington Post today takes a deeper dive into the “poll” that supposedly proves that by a 2-1 margin, Teamster union members endorse Trump and reject Kamala.
“The Teamsters released results from two internal surveys of members that they say show rank-and-file members strongly favored a Trump endorsement over one for Harris. The Teamsters reported the periods during which the polls were conducted, whether they were conducted by phone or online, and the percentages that supported Trump and Harris. But the Teamsters did not disclose how participants were selected for the surveys, the number of people who completed them, whether the samples were weighted by demographics, or the exact questions they asked.
The Teamsters said these surveys influenced their decision to not endorse. However, a chorus of union leaders and political strategists questioned them and their methodologies, as no details were released. The Washington Post has also inquired about the methodologies.
The budding relationship with Trump also spurred backlash from liberal Teamsters leadership and many rank-and-file members. After the conventions, a growing cohort of Teamsters local unions began issuing endorsements for Harris, and in some cases condemning O’Brien for not endorsing her.
As of Thursday, at least eight regional councils, covering active Teamsters members in some 14 states, as well as 10 union locals, had endorsed Harris. The regional councils alone represent more than 500,000 Teamsters members.
No regional or local Teamsters organizations have endorsed Trump.”
NO REGIONAL OR LOCAL TEAMSTERS ORGANIZATIONS HAVE ENDORSED TRUMP. But at least 8 have endorsed Kamala.
Why would that be the case if Trump is so extraordinarily popular according to the Teamsters own “polls” whose methodology is not allowed to be known?
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NYC PSP,
That’s exactly right.
O’Brien refuses to release any info about his electronic poll.
Watch as more and more Teamster locals endorse Kamala.
If you are on Twitter, look at @Jamieson for more on this topic.
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How the Lake Research poll was conducted is a fair question. However, they are a professional polling firm. And also bear in mind that we also don’t know the methodology of the straw polling that the Teamsters originally did that showed more support for Biden than Trump. Seems like it’s just as much a fair question whether that straw polling was reliable as whether the Lake Research poll was reliable. It definitely was not a poll done using statistical sampling.
https://jacobin.com/2024/09/teamsters-endorsement-trump-harris-election
“For instance, the original straw poll was conducted from April 9 through July 3 in union halls and was organized entirely by local union leadership. From anecdotal evidence, it seems that only a small minority of locals took time to mobilize and educate their membership on these votes, the stakes of the election, and the meaning of the polls. As a result, mainly active and engaged members (who tend to lean Democrat) showed up. This poll indicated that members backed then Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden 44.3 percent to Trump’s 36.3 percent.”
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We will never know whether the decision not to endorse Harris relied on members or on O’Brien’s dalliance with Trump. This is the first time since 1996 that the Teamsters did not endorse the Democrat. Odd, since the contrast between Harris and Trump was clear-cut. Teamster locals continue to endorse her. Let’s see how many endorse Trump. So far, none.
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I suspect (this is all speculation and deduction) there is a schism between the politics of rank and file members and of union leaders (both local and national), and that union leaders would not permit an endorsement of Trump no matter what the local membership’s leanings were, because Trump and the GOP are so patently anti-labor. And on the flip side, it makes sense to me that the local chapters that have broken with the national org and endorsed Harris have done so partly because that schism between members and leadership is less pronounced. I haven’t seen the entire list of chapters that have endorsed Harris, but I see chapters in Philly and NYC are among them, and that makes sense to me—these are regions where voters generally are much more Democratic than Republican (and one could infer that a much higher percentage of union member are Democrats than are in most regions in the country), and I would guess that the leadership in those chapters is much more Democratic and activist than in much of the rest of the country. My speculation, but that’s why I don’t think it seems that weird that many locals are endorsing Harris and apparently none are endorsing Trump.
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Should have written “have done so partly because that schism between members and leadership is less pronounced [within those local chapters]”
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Also the Teamsters in western PA, California and Michigan.
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Thanks, Diane.
It stands to reason that if the unions are as pro-Trump as a poll that is suspiciously non-transparent in its methodology suggests, there will be lots of local union endorsements of Trump.
The Jacobin article, while informative in some ways, makes a lot of false equivalencies.
The straw poll’s methodology is known, and the later polls conducted by “professional” independent organizations are not. Since when are professional polling companies in the habit of hiding their methodologies? The people who analyze polls understand that without knowing how many are polled, who is being polled, and how they are being polled, it isn’t much good. How is there not even a margin of error listed for the “professional” poll? It’s a single power point slide!
If it’s a good poll, why not simply make the methodology transparent?
What’s the point of articles where writers twist themselves in knots with speculation about why the poll is accurate when we should be able to just look at the methodology instead of speculating in advance that it’s because of “inflation” or some “failure of the Dems” or “failure of the unions”.
It’s unseemly to shout down people who pose reasonable questions about why the extremely strong pro-Trump support by Teamsters in a poll would lead to so many local and regional union groups endorsing Kamala, and none endorsing Trump.
I’d ask the same questions if a state teachers’ union issued a poll that said that 2/3 of the members supported the candidate that hates teachers unions, and is campaigning on vouchers and privatization. I’d want to see the methodology, not hear someone lecturing me that it’s unacceptable not to trust a poll that isn’t transparent because teachers care about inflation.
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“The straw poll’s methodology is known”
Is it? What was the methodology of the straw polling and what basis do you have to believe the results were a more reliable snapshot of overall Teamster members’ views than the Lake Research phone survey? I don’t think there’s any basis to draw that conclusion. It appears certain that the straw polling was not done on a statistically random sample.
It seems like you are trying to treat the straw polling as a reliable indicator of what Teamster members in general think, while casting doubt on the validity of the Lake Research polling because there is a possibility that it may have suffered from methodological flaws that we know the straw polling had.
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The reality (as I see it, of course) is that (1) it is not clear whether the Lake Research survey is a reliable snapshot of overall Teamster member views, and (2) it is highly likely that the straw polling is not a reliable snapshot of overall Teamster views. I think you’re spinning things to undermine the results you don’t like and bolster the results you do like.
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Please cite any point where I presented the straw poll as a “a more reliable snapshot of overall Teamster members’ views”? Are you trying to change the subject? It’s a straw poll of people who came to a meeting at union halls organized by local union leadership. It is what it is! And we know what it is!
We know more about how the straw poll was conducted than we do about a 2 polls done by professional organizations. Why is simply asking for more transparency is attacked so viciously?
Especially when the local and regional endorsements are the OPPOSITE of what one would expect if the union membership was heavily pro-Trump but the national union spurned the wishes of the vast majority of its membership and would not endorse Trump. It would be logical to expect to see a lot of local unions endorsing Trump, because they are angry the national union didn’t listen to them when they expressed such widespread support for Trump.
The Kamala endorsements make little sense unless there is more support for her than that poll indicates. Apparently having a (poll-certified) huge majority of pro-Trump rank and file members that results in lots of local endorsements for Kamala make perfect sense to you, but I still don’t understand your reasoning as to why that makes sense. What would make more sense, to me, is a lot of local Trump endorsements.
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Not sure why you’re so defensive or why you think my comments, which were quite measured in my view, were a “vicious attack” on you. You seem to have been suggesting that the straw polling was reliable and that there is a question about whether the new surveys were reliable. If you agree with me that the straw polling is very unlikely to be a representative snapshot of overall Teamster member views, then I misread your comments and we have no disagreement.
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We have no disagreement about the straw poll’s reliability and never had. Your reasons for accusing me of something I never did remain a mystery to me.
As Diane Ravitch stated, this conversation was about O’Brien refusing to release any information about the two electronic/phone polls that show 2/3 of Teamsters want the union to endorse Trump.
This conversation was about how that lack of transparency is especially glaring when so many local and state Teamster unions are endorsing Kamala, not Trump.
We disagree on whether there is anything odd about the fact that despite a non-transparent poll that Sean O’Brien has been publicizing widely that shows Trump being wildly popular among Teamsters, the local groups around the country are endorsing Kamala, not Trump.
Sean O’Brien just attacked AOC, citing those very same polls. We don’t have any transparency about how those polls were done, but we do know the non-transparent polls showed that the Teamsters in AOC’s district “voted overwhelmingly Republican to support former President Trump”, according to Sean O’Brien, which gave the Teamsters head justification to sneer that with that kind of overwhelming support for Republicans by Teamsters in AOC’s district “she [AOC] may want to focus on her job instead of mine.”
(FYI, AOC’s local teamsters union endorsed Kamala even though O’Brien says his polls show that teamsters in AOC’s district were overwhelmingly pro-Trump.)
Also this is a polling rumor that would very easy to clear up with the absolute bare minimum of transparency:
“I say “apparently” because some Teamster officials ridiculed that internal poll as unscientific and untrustworthy, saying it was based on a survey printed on the back of the union’s magazine, which meant haphazard responses.”
(From today’s Steven Greenhouse article about the Teamster endorsement at Slate.com)
I assume these polling results aren’t from a survey printed on the back of a magazine. But since there is no transparency, who knows? We DO know that the poll showed that Teamsters in AOC’s district were overwhelmingly pro-Trump. At least, that’s what Sean O’Brien said.
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Yeah, as I explained in other comments, I don’t find it inherently strange that certain local groups have been endorsing Harris and not Trump. I agree it would be interesting and useful to see the methodology of the Lake Research poll.
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Here’s your homework assignment, NYC. Get on interstate 90 and head South until you come to a truck stop. You will know it by all the big rigs parked outside. Go inside and browse the gift shop. Note all the pro-Trump paraphernalia.
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Here’s your homework assignment.
Read Diane Ravitch’s reply to my comment above.
I have no idea idea if you are being deliberately obtuse so you can insult me, or if you truly are unable to grasp the point of this article.
I get it. Truckers are MAGA. I don’t know who you are arguing with as I never said they weren’t. I pointed out that local and regional Teamster Unions are endorsing Kamala and not Trump, which raises questions about the validity of the poll whose “hidden” methodology has been rightly questioned. There is no reason why a poll’s methodology should not be transparent, including the flawed reasoning that anyone who questions the lack of transparency should be belittled and harassed because only stupid people don’t know that truck drivers are MAGA.
It defies logic that anything I wrote here would get you this angry. Why do you continue to respond to me with such derision and condescension?
I will ask you again, to please stop it.
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The GOP is rapidly becoming the blue-collar party. Here’s what that means. (nbcnews.com)
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The Unexpected Coalition That Is Remaking the Republican Party – POLITICO
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The quotation marks around the word poll–that’s rich.
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I can’t fathom how anyone would expect Trump to be pro-union in any way.
First, Trump fancies himself The Boss. He doesn’t pay anyone, not vendors, not workers, not anyone. He’s been sued thousands of times. People who pay their bills rarely get sued for nonpayment. Trump gets sued all the time.
What do you expect? He’s a crook, always has been.
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It’s the cultural stuff. They feel like the GOP is more like them than the Dems. And yes there are a lot of stupid people out there. It’s unfortunate that they have most of the guns.
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Wrong spot
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The New Republic:
“Teamsters President Sean O’Brien isn’t happy that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticized the union for refusing to endorse Kamala Harris for president. On Thursday, in response to her comments, he made the spurious claim that the Teamsters in AOC’s district overwhelmingly support Donald Trump.
Speaking to CNN’s Dana Bash, O’Brien said, “[Ocasio-Cortez] should maybe get into her district, where it voted far-right Republican, and maybe find out what the problem is.”
Bash asked the union president what he meant, to which O’Brien responded, “In our polling, New York, her district, voted overwhelmingly Republican to support former President Trump, so she may want to focus on her job instead of mine.”
While that sound bite was highlighted by the Trump campaign on X (formerly Twitter), O’Brien’s statement was quickly disproven by the fact that Teamsters Local 202 in New York’s 14th District in the Bronx endorsed Ocasio-Cortez Thursday, which the congresswoman was happy to post on X herself. “
Let’s recap:
AOC posted on twitter: “The NY-14 Teamsters mentioned here have actually voted overwhelmingly to endorse Harris-Walz. Just as Teamsters in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have, too. It’s a big thing to be wrong about. So let’s set the record straight: Teamsters Local 202 are all in for Harris
Teamster leader Sean O’Brien wants the public to believe AOC is a liar because HIS very credible but mysteriously non-transparent poll of Teamsters shows that the ones who live in AOC’s district are heavily pro-Trump.
I just hope people don’t start attacking AOC for questioning Sean O’Brien’s trustworthy poll, and start belittling her for not knowing that all truck drivers are MAGA, including in her district.
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That the NY-14 Teamsters leadership endorsed Harris does not disprove the claim that NY-14 members support Trump more than they support Harris.
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I should have written “Teamsters Local 202 leadership” and “Teamsters Local 202 members.” (NY-14 is just the congressional district.)
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to be clear, the poll showed that teamsters in NY-14 voted “overwhelmingly Republican to support President Trump”.
I imagine they are very angry at their “leadership” right now for endorsing Kamala when they voted “overwhelmingly” for the union to endorse Trump.
I’m sure that’s the most logical explanation for why there is no transparency in the poll that showed their overwhelming support for Trump. And you probably have another theory about why the overwhelming majority of teamsters in AOC’s district are so quiet about the leaders doing the OPPOSITE of what the overwhelming majority of them wanted.
That definitely sounds like something a Trump supporter would do. Quietly accept the results of an vote where apparently the result WAS truly fabricated and the Republicans have the evidence (the polls!) to prove it!
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I don’t understand what you’re saying. But maybe I can better explain what I’m saying, in case you didn’t understand it.
I’m saying that (1) the New Republic article you quoted said that O’Brien’s assertion that the Teamster’s internal polling showed “overwhelming” support for Trump among teamster members in AOC’s district was “disproven by the fact that Teamsters Local 202” voted to endorse Harris. And I’m saying that (2) the Local 202 endorsement does not disprove O’Brien’s assertion because that endorsement was the result of a vote by the executive board of Local 202, not a vote by the ~7,500 members of Local 202.
Is O’Brien’s assertion true? I don’t have any way of knowing that. But it’s not contradicted by the fact that Local 202 endorsed Harris.
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There is a very long history in the United States of union leadership supporting Democratic candidates when the rank-and-file blue-collar workers support Republican ones. AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SURPRISING. Workers are used to this, so it barely ruffles them, typically. AND, AGAIN, MANY BLUE-COLLAR PEOPLE JUST DON’T FOLLOW POLITICS MUCH. If anything, the national Teamsters is doing more than they did in the past to try to align with their rank-and-file.
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It’s also the case that officers in the military tend to vote more progressive than do rank-and-file military personnel, who tend to be VERY conservative.
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That the Teamsters Local 202 leadership endorsed Harris does not PROVE the questionable claim (made by Sean O’Brien) that Teamsters Local 202 members overwhelmingly support Trump more than they support Harris.
That the Teamsters Local 202 endorsed Harris instead of Trump is NOT credible evidence that the leadership of Local 202 blatantly rejected what the overwhelming majority of rank and file teamsters in AOC’s district want – a Trump endorsement.
Do all of us at least agree on that? Can we at least agree that Sean O’Brien’s insulting attack on AOC is wrong because he has provided NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE supporting his claim that Teamsters in AOC’s district overwhelmingly support Trump?
Do you know what would prove Sean O’Brien’s attack on AOC was based on fact? TRANSPARENCY. Transparency about the poll he is citing to justify attacking AOC.
Why would anyone here be so triggered by my calling for transparency? I’m surprised that everyone wouldn’t be asking for transparency, too, instead of defending Sean O’Brien, especially after he belittled and attacked AOC.
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“There is a very long history in the United States of union leadership supporting Democratic candidates when the rank-and-file blue-collar workers support Republican ones.”
It depends on your definition of “very long history”.
Teamster endorsements:
1980 Reagan
1984 Reagan
1988 Bush
1992 Clinton
1996 NO ENDORSEMENT (Clinton v. Bob Dole)
2000 Gore
2004 Kerry
2008/2012 Obama
2016 Clinton
2020 Biden
2024 NO ENDORSEMENT (Harris v. Trump)
If anyone is interested in seeing what news reporting can achieve when done by curious, professional journalists, this LA Times article from October 18, 1988, written by the “Labor Reporter” is a fine example of journalism:
JUST 21,207 BALLOTS CAST: TEAMSTERS ENDORSE BUSH; ONLY MAJOR UNION TO DO SO
“The Teamsters Union executive board ENDORSED VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH FOR PRESIDENT Monday after a poll of the union’s members gave Bush a narrow edge over Michael S. Dukakis, the Democratic candidate.
The union is the only major one in the country to endorse the Republican candidate, just as it was when IT ENDORSED RONALD REAGAN in 1980 and 1984.
ONLY 21,207 of the union’s 1.6 million members RETURNED BALLOTS, which HAD BEEN DISTRIBUTED IN THE TEAMSTERS MONTHLY MAGAZINE, according to Duke Zeller, the union’s communications director. OF THOSE WHO VOTED, Bush got 50.2%, Dukakis 46.4%. Other political figures, including the Rev. Jesse Jackson, received the rest of the votes.
“The board has endorsed the results of the poll among our rank and file,” said William J. McCarthy, Teamsters president, at a news conference at the Grenelefe Resort in Haines City, Fla., where the Teamsters board is holding its fall meeting. “I feel, as well, that Vice President Bush is better qualified to lead and to serve this nation in the White House.”
McCarthy, a conservative Democrat whose home local is in Charlestown, a Boston suburb, is a longtime foe of Dukakis. He supported Edward J. King when he toppled the Massachusetts governor in the 1978 Democratic primary and again in 1982, when Dukakis beat King in the primary and went on to recapture the governor’s office.
Some members of the union’s board tried to persuade McCarthy not to make a formal endorsement, considering the closeness of the vote, sources said, but HE SAID THE VOTE SHOWED THE MEMBERS’ SENTIMENTS…….
Teamster sources acknowledged Monday that there was SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE RESULTS. “There were some shockers,” one source said. “Bush got his highest vote in Massachusetts–78.7%.” Dukakis’ strongest state was Iowa, where 73% of the Teamsters who cast ballots supported him. Sources said California Teamsters split their ballots almost equally between the two and would not disclose who prevailed.
Locals Back Dukakis
McCarthy made no detailed statement about what the union would do for Bush in the remaining weeks of the campaign. And several Teamsters sources said the endorsement would have no major impact. NUMEROUS TEAMSTER LOCALS AROUND THE COUNTRY HAVE ALREADY ENDORSED DUKAKIS and are expected to continue working on his behalf.
“The locals are the ones that can make a difference,” said one Teamster source, who spoke on condition of not being identified. “They have people to man phones and stuff envelopes.”
Notice that the poll was transparent about HOW the polling was done?
I don’t understand why Bob and flerp! prefer to speculate about how it POSSIBLE that Sean O’Brien could be justified in attacking AOC and telling her to shut up. It is also POSSIBLE that a small number of people returned a mail-in ballot from their monthly magazine. I could speculate all kinds of things, but what a waste of time.
I am pointing out – as Diane Ravitch made clear – that there is NO TRANSPARENCY to these 2024 polls, which is NOT NORMAL.
It also isn’t normal for you to justify an attack on AOC because she CORRECTLY pointed out that her local Teamsters’ Union strongly endorsed Kamala, and the only evidence being offered by the folks speculating that AOC “could” be a liar is this very questionable theory that IF teamsters in AOC’s district overwhelming supported Trump, the local teamster union leaders would definitely blow off the fact that the rank and file overwhelmingly supported Trump and those local teamster unions would strongly endorse Kamala anyway.
My expressing concern about the lack of transparency about how this poll was conducted seems to bother you a lot more than the actual lack of transparency! And that’s weird.
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I did not say “Teamsters,” I said “union leadership.” But do go on.
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Isn’t the Teamsters a union? I assumed you’d be interested in knowing that it endorsed Republicans and the rank and file did not always agree.
Why are you triggered if I post anything that challenges your certainty that the Teamster polls prove that you and Sean O’Brien are right and AOC is wrong?
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NB, to my point, from the very article that you quoted:
The union is the only major one in the country to endorse the Republican candidate
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GET SOME HELP.
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Stop using threatening language. There is no justification for you to be so hostile because I posted a link to a story that gives more details about how teamster polls have been done in the past.
You sound like Sean O’Brien attacking AOC. Really uncalled for. Are you going to tell me to focus on my job instead of yours next?
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I have no idea what you are talking about.
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And I have threatened no one. That’s not something I do. Ever.
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I hope people will consider reading the interesting LA Times article from 1988 which has a lot more transparency about how Teamster polls are done – and might make folks less sympathetic to Sean O’Brien justifying his attacks on AOC.
I hope people will ignore the folks who are seriously triggered whenever I post something challenging that Teamster poll.
For the record, Teamsters in AOC’s district MAY very well be “overwhelmingly” pro-Trump, and their local union leaders MAY be endorsing Kamala against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the teamster union members in that district. It seems like a rather questionable assertion, but maybe it’s true.
But we don’t know whether it’s true because of the lack of transparency in those polls that Sean O’Brien keeps citing.
I am not going to reply to any more of Bob’s insults, condescension and frankly, pure hatred. It scares me and I hope it stops.
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why are you so angry
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lol! Typical. Ignore the points in my post and just call me “angry”.
Stop being so triggered! Your hostility is starting to scare me.
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In the early 1980s, I was in the Teamsters–in fact, after all these years, I still have my withdrawal card, with which I can reenter the Union at any time without paying the initiation fee. Early on, I became interested in the workings of my obviously and extravagantly corrupt Union and joined an organization called Teamsters for a Democratic Union. I read all the recommended books (I recall one by Dan Moldea that was as informative of the contemporaneous Teamsters as one could hope to find, I guess).
This kind of thing has long been a problem in the Teamsters. When I heard the current president of the Union had addressed the Republican National Convention, approvingly, no less, I was not surprised in the least.
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