I am falling in love with Jamelle Bouie. I love his mind. I love his writing. I love his insights. I read his personal blog (to which I subscribe via The New York Times), and here is a recent article in a special opinion section that cheered me up.
We frequently hear that Donald Trump represents a large and significant number of Americans, each attracted to him for several different reasons, none of which are that mysterious.
There are supporters attracted to his doctrinaire commitment to social conservatism, even if he himself is a libertine. There are supporters attracted to his belligerent hostility toward a broad variety of perceived cultural enemies. There are supporters attracted to his open cruelty toward and contempt for various racial and religious others. And there are supporters who simply think he’ll get them a good deal in foreign and domestic affairs — whatever that actually means.
Again, it’s not that complicated.
What is less frequently heard on the lips of political commentators is the fact that, while large and significant, Trump’s following is not a majority. Not even close. In fact, by any measure, Trump has been a unique electoral loser for the Republican Party.
His ceiling in national elections — having been twice on the presidential ballot — seems to be somewhere between 46 percent and 47 percent of the voting public. In 2016 that was enough, thanks to the Electoral College, to put him in the White House. In 2020 it wasn’t.
Just as significant is the fate of the most explicitly Trump-aligned candidates — the so-called MAGA Republicans whom President Biden condemned in his 2022 address on the state of American democracy. They are also electoral losers. The Republican Party, thanks to Trump’s influence, has lost or severely underperformed in three consecutive national elections, as well as a large number of special and off-year elections.
None of this means that he and his closest allies are somehow doomed in November. But it does seem as if there is a national political majority that is, if nothing else, consistently hostile to Trump or Trump-like figures and will vote to keep them out of office.
There has been an endless parade of analysis of the Trump or MAGA voter. Perhaps it’s time to focus on the views of this actual silent majority, whose members don’t attend rallies or make a show of their political commitments but whose votes have powered the Democratic Party to an unusual six-year run of electoral victories.
In Jamelle Bouie’s newsletter today, he compares Trump to George Wallace, and concludes that he is the heir apparent to Wallace. He describes two biographies of Wallace that he read recently and ends: A final thought:
Wallace was a smart, clever and intellectually agile man. We are probably lucky that our demagogue, dangerous as he is, lacks those particular attributes. Even so, if Wallace has a legacy in national politics, it is very clearly Trump.
Diane Ravitch's blog 
Bouie neglects the majority of trump voters. They are apolitical for the most part, which means that they derive their information from sources that suppress some truth and lie about other truth. They really hope only to gain protection from all the things their limited information tells them to fear.
Trump’s ideas are simple. Your world under the other people is crap. These other people are responsible for all your worries. I am your savior. I will save you from the immigrants, from the Muslims, from the rich people who make you poor, from the poor people who want your money. I see I’ll keep you safe from those whose goal is to wreck your view of your world.
Wallace was a paradox. He stood on the college steps and swore mighty oaths to segregation, but was elected with black votes his last term as governor. I see why Bouie makes this comparison, but I do not think Trump will ever turn his political voice in such a way as to garner support from his former detractors.
Bouie is correct in that trump has achieved his highest political success, underperforming in midterm elections and becoming president only because pro Clinton votes were suppressed by the FBI investigation and the attitude that people would never support trump. Since then, however, efforts to suppress urban votes have become more sophisticated, and the prospect of a trump presidency based on 45% of the popular vote looms large in possibility.
Ironically, Niki Haley based her campaign on the idea of electability, pointing not to Trump’s moral degradation but to his popularity threshold. She is right, but the people who vote for trump do so out of fear, not strategy.
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The Trump voters you describe are exactly like the people who gave Trump tens of thousands of dollars to enroll in Trump University.
They aren’t just apolitical. They are apolitical AND they are gullible. They should be referred to as “marks, suckers, stooges, mugs, rubes”.
There are apolitical people with similar concerns about their future who may not vote at all or they decide to vote for Dems or third party. What makes them different from Trump voters is that they aren’t gullible suckers who are easily conned.
Trump voters who have concerns about the future and believe Trump has the answer are no different than the folks who happily gave Trump their hard earned money to enroll in Trump University.
Recall that there were huge numbers of people who wanted to get an education that would set them up to be successful in business. They did not ALL enroll in Trump University. Only the suckers among them fell for the con that if they gave Trump thousands of dollars to attend his “university”, they would get what they want.
If the mainstream media treated those Trump voters as no different than the Trump University students who gave Trump thousands of dollars to make Trump (and not them) rich, they would soon decline in number. Instead, these dupes are elevated as very important folks whose views must be listened to. When there are other folks with the same concerns that Trump suckers have who haven’t been conned, but are ignored.
Why would anyone believe that students conned to attend Trump University have something important to say about the state of education today — even more important than those NOT conned into attending Trump University?
Our so-called mainstream media has become an Orwellian nightmare.
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I wrote this in Regard to Jamelle Bouie’s newsletter:
“In Wallace’s last term as governor in the late 1980s, he hired a black press secretary, appointed more than 160 blacks to state governing boards and worked to double the number of black voter registrars in Alabama’s 67 counties. In part, it was the politics of patronage – in his last race for governor he won with 60 percent of the vote and well over 90 percent of the black vote – but on a deeper level it was using his waning political power to bond with those he once scorned. Tuskegee Institute responded with an honorary degree.” Coleman McCarthy, Washington Post, 1995
Yes, George Wallace was flawed, but he at least acknowledged those flaws before his second stint as Governor of Alabama in the 1980s. He then governed as such. It troubles me when the media so quickly compares Trump to Wallace without acknowledging this caveat. Wallace represents a hope for redemption where Trump has nothing to redeem.
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Paul,
Biuie notes that as a young man, Wallace was a moderate on racial issues. But he turned into a flaming racist to advance his political career.
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But the problem is that the scum bag could easily win again and destroy democracy. He and his minions have already done significant damage.
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Dumbfounding. What gets me is the “election was rigged” only for him. It didn’t seem to matter that other Republicans won, therefore, not rigged? And, let’s say, the 2024 election goes through, Biden wins, so are we going to have a “peaceful and patriotic” visit to the capitol again — I mean the over and over? The timeless journey of the Mobius Strip?
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Rick, that’s an important point and Liz Cheney says the same in her book other Republican colleagues. If the election was rigged, how did you get elected?
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The right wing Young Americans for Liberty has an offshoot, Make Liberty Win PAC. Two days ago, a Maine candidate that the group endorsed pled guilty to assaulting officers on Jan. 6. Based on the photo array of candidates that MLW PAC endorses, the group is a strong election presence in Maine, S.D., N.D., Wy., Missouri, Idaho and Az.
A research paper out of the University of New Hampshire reported in 2023 that, in one state, out of 76 state reps endorsed by MLW PAC, 53 won.
One of the endorsed Maine politicians is Heidi Sampson who was appointed by LePage to Maine’s State Board of Education (selected to advocate for homeschooling).
A signature on the Frankfurt Declaration of Christian and Civil Liberties is Barrett Young, Executive Director of Make Liberty Win PAC, Austin, Texas. Since the site of MLW PAC (Arlington Va.-based) doesn’t identify its leaders, Young may be regional, state or national.
The Frankfurt Declaration written in 2022, is international in scope. It states in part, “God the creator as sovereign Lawyer and Judge…We …have good grounds to question the modern state’s ethical pronouncements and moral vision since the secular humanism and relativistic ethics has no transcendent basis for human behavior and morality.”
If Republicans are elected, women, Black people and Jews should be very concerned.
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Trump is in trouble:
When properly dissected, Trump’s “victory” in the Iowa caucuses is a big concern for his electability. For example, although the media made a Big Deal of the winter weather, the weather was well within what Iowans are used to at this time of year, and Iowa businesses reported no drop off in traffic at stores and restaurants — but, only 40% of Iowans bothered to votel, even though the caucuses were the topic of endless coverage in the media. That means that 60% of Iowans weren’t all the interested in any of the candidates.
BOTTOM LINE: Trump is a Serial Loser. The majority of genuine Republicans know this, and perhaps in the coming New Hampshire primary election they will send a strong message that serial loser Trump is not going to help the Party win the White House or anything else.
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MAGA is Trump. Trump is MAGA.
What happens to MAGA when the traitor dies?
I don’t think any Republican competing to replace Trump will ever be Trump. Even DeSantis, Abbott, et al., who are working overtime to attract MAGA voters, will never be as toxic as Trump no matter how hard they try.
Traitor Trump is a uniquely vile, malignant narcissist with a host of other negative personality disorders. What does that reveal about the traitor’s worshiping MAGA cult?
“Poll: Less Than One-Quarter of Americans View MAGA Positively”
https://truthout.org/articles/poll-less-than-one-quarter-of-americans-view-maga-positively/
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We saw the video of Trump saying that Nikki Haley was responsible for the security at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. He didn’t slip up just once. He repeated her name a few times. He meant to say Nancy Pelosi but he can’t keep his enemies straight.
We may have seen the video but Elise Stefanik came to his defense and said he didn’t say what we all saw. She added that she would be honored to be his VP.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4419704-stefanik-pushes-back-reports-trump-mixed-up-haley-pelosi/amp/
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I wish this were so, Lloyd, but Trump has awakened something extremely dangerous and sinister that will live after him, and with him out of the way, some monster will assume the mad mantle.
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Bob,
After Trump either dies or slips into total delirium, we must still worry about the rough beast he has awakened.
But there is no one in the GOP that has his salesmanship or evil charisma. Gaetz? Johnson? Rick Scott? Tim Scott? Greg Abbott? Stitt?
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So, who will it be?
And what rough beast, his hour come round at last,
slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?
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I utterly do not get what is charismatic about this repulsive, poisonous toad.
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It’s the views of folks who might reject Trump but are either ambivalent or hostile to Biden that worry me. The potential stay-at-homes.
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Arthur, agreed. We know there is a huge difference between them. They are known.
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Read, Nicholas Kristof’s column in today’s Sunday Opinion about the life of despair of his friend and the “Snickers” column about perception of inflation. Democrats are failing to address the anger and alienation of working-class voters either with real empathy or with practical solutions such as universal healthcare or free public post-secondary education. Neither are Republicans, but they play on the anger using blame the “other”. That’s why I keep harping on the uselessness and perceived contempt of telling voters what a wonderful job Biden is doing or that the economy is doing better than people think by the numbers. Only, perception of “I get you and I’m on your side, “will get folks to the polls to vote for Democrats and against the angry strongman appeal.
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Agreed. Here’s my take on all of this. Common folk say, “And how does this help me?” The “kitchen table talks.” In my world, I have to decide: “Can I afford a MRI Scan because I haven’t met my deductible or just wait it out? (can’t lift my arm for some reason). And then, this system doesn’t accept my insurance and won’t talk to that provider — Geez. My wife worries we won’t have enough money in retirement; she stresses working in a meaningless job to have health insurance. I am a “saver of receipts” and monitor prices well since Covid — we are very frugal and pragmatic. Prices used to change by “nickels and dimes.” Today, prices change by dollars. I do all my home repairs. Just to get parts, expensive! From Home Depot to the grocery store, the buzz is “Geez, this trip cost me close to $200 where it used to be under $100. Water rates just went up; cable went up; the garbage program went up; egg prices are going up. What do we do? Well, won’t be buying that, well and that and that. Surcharges, fees, extra taxes — everywhere I look, all of it adds up and we all feel helpless. This is what common folk know and live. Most people use “the economy is bad” because it really takes critical thinking to understand how an economic system functions. And understanding how the market functions — “brain freeze” for a lot of people. The Biden team needs to really focus on letting people know: we are curtailing the corporate greed as they inflate prices on the supply chain; we know how hard it is to decide if you can spend extra for a birthday party, a trip, or whatnot. It used to be people could get away to a state park, but now that is very expensive, Most people see what they do on a daily basis. I wanted to fix the fence, but lumber prices are through the roof; textured my wall (texture was $11, now $22); paint has skyrocketed. Home Insurance in CA (if you can get it) through the roof! So, regular folk continually see that their dollar can’t go very far these days, therefore, the economy is bad. I am living it and after all these years (now retired) really have to think about each dollar I spend. I understand the overall way things are working, but most folks have no patience nor the money to wait. People live in the now. My fear is people might say, “Nothing is working for me; to hell with it” and stay home when it is time to vote. As always, just my take on it all and how we feel.
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Same. I keep hearing these reports that things aren’t that bad. The feds saying, for example, that food prices increased by six percent last year. Well, I’m spending TWICE at the grocery what I did a couple years ago. My electric bill DOUBLED this year. My rent has been going up by 25 percent a year every year for several years now.
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Arthur,
You know why Biden’s ambitious plans got killed. In the first two years, Manchin and Synema. In the last two years, Republican control of the House. The Freedom Caucus is in charge and nothing passes.
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Yes, and…..not enough other Democrats who speak to voters to offset the too thin Dem margin in Congress.
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Jamelle Bouie gives me oxygen.
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He gives me hope.
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