The National Education Policy Center issued a report about the likely fiscal impact of vouchers, which finds that vouchers are a risky venture with no proven benefits. NEPC is noted for its peer-reviewed reports.
An NEPC Review funded by the Great Lakes Center
Key Takeaway: Tax-credit scholarship programs probably incur more costs than savings for state and school districts, placing financial strain on state budgets and driving the need for future budget cuts.
GRAND RAPIDS, MI (September 26, 2023) – A recent report from the Georgia Department of Audits and Accounts examines the monetary costs and benefits of the state’s Qualified Education Expense Tax Credit (QEEC), a voucher policy that provides a public subsidy for families to pay for private school tuition. A review of the report, however, contradicts its claim that the policy provides a net fiscal benefit to the state budget.
David Knight of the University of Washington reviewed Qualified Education Expense Tax Credit: Economic Analysis, and he found several methodological challenges that undermine the report’s conclusions and its usefulness.
One key claim in the report is that the tax credit results in $81 million of forgone state tax revenue per year. Another key claim is that the vouchers incentivize almost 20,000 students per year to choose private schools instead of public, thus removing the cost of educating those students from state and local budgets. Based largely on these two claims, the report concludes that QEEC provides a net fiscal benefit for Georgia’s state budget.
Professor Knight points to a lack of data about how many students per year do actually switch from public to private schools because of the voucher subsidy and incentive. In fact, existing private-school families have extremely strong incentives to accept the public subsidies. And if most of the vouchers are provided to support these students who were already planning to attend a private school, then the policy only subsidizes private school students with funding that could otherwise be returned to taxpayers or invested in the state’s public education system, which is open to all students.
While these calculations are all necessarily grounded in some speculation because of the unregulated elements of the voucher policy and the resulting lack of hard data, the most likely result of tax credit scholarship programs like QEEC is that the state and school districts incur more costs than savings, placing financial strain on state budgets that could require future cuts.
Because the report relies on unrealistic assumptions, its suggestion that program benefits outweigh costs is tenuous and risks misleading state education leaders. Instead, state leaders should invest educational dollars in policies that have a positive return on investment and therefore help, rather than harm, state and local budgets.
Find the review, by David Knight, at:
https://www.greatlakescenter.org
Find Qualified Education Expense Tax Credit: Economic Analysis, written by Greg S. Griffin and Lisa Kieffer, and published by the Georgia Department of Audits and Accounts, at:
https://www.audits.ga.gov/ReportSearch/download/29827
NEPC Reviews (https://nepc.colorado.edu/reviews) provide the public, policymakers, and the press with timely, academically sound reviews of selected publications. NEPC Reviews are made possible in part by support provided by the Great Lakes Center for Education Research and Practice: https://www.greatlakescenter.org
Diane Ravitch's blog 
I was confused at first. Media reports that although GA voucher bill passed in Senate 3/6/23, it failed in House 3/29/23. It was a bill to fund $6k vouchers to families whose children attend “the bottom 25% of schools.” The bill would have passed save for 15 Republicans who sided with Democrats against it. [Rep pressure will continue; the bill will be back in some form next year, says Rep Speaker of House.]
But now I get it. This is about the existing voucher program passed 2008 called QEEC [ESA program]. As of 2021, average voucher value $4,292; 17,440 “scholarships” awarded. Total K12 public school students that year = 1,686,319. Scholarship students = 1%.
Regardless, GA audit report is ridiculous in its claim “the vouchers incentivize almost 20,000 students per year to choose private schools instead of public, thus removing the cost of educating those students from state and local budgets.” How does that figure? State is spending, i.e., losing revenue, to the tune of $81 million per yr on vouchers for that 1% of K12 students. The report’s “suggestion that program benefits outweigh costs is tenuous [i.e. false!] and risks misleading state education leaders [i.e., those who can’t read a ledger].”
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Meanwhile, RE: expanded voucher programs– the direction in which GA Rep legislators clearly are pushing to go [starting with just students in “the bottom 25% of schools”]…
FL has a newly expanded voucher program similar to AZ’s and a couple of other states. Regardless of family income, one can garner up to $8k/yr payment [or discount] of any private school’s fees. That’s equivalent to the state’s annual portion of K12 per pupil spending [total including local = average $11,800].
FL Policy Institute has estimated an increase of $4billion to state K12 ed expense in the first year alone. Half– $1.9 billion– is automatically transferred to families who have heretofore been shouldering privschool cost on their own dime.
Wonder who’s getting a haircut so state can spend 16.5% more for “school choice”?
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Voucher programs always begin as the camel’s nose under the tent. First, they are limited to the poorest kids; then to kids with disabilities; then to kids who say they were bullied; then to children of the military…On and on until there are universal vouchers, $8,000 per for everyone, regardless of income or anything else, to spend on trampolines, kayaks, whatever.
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