Anya Kamenetz, education reporter for NPR, writes here about research findings that suggest the risk of reopening schools during the pandemic have been exaggerated.
Of course, there is good reason to be concerned because the U.S. Congress has not passed the funding needed by schools for safe reopening. Congress has bailed out major corporations, but allotted only $13.2 billion for the nation’s nearly 100,000 schools and more than 50 million students. Public schools were not allowed to request money from the $660 Billion Paycheck Protection Program, but charter schools, private schools, and religious schools were eligible to request PPP funding, and some received millions of dollars.
Kamenetz begins:
Despite widespread concerns, two new international studies show no consistent relationship between in-person K-12 schooling and the spread of the coronavirus. And a third study from the United States shows no elevated risk to childcare workers who stayed on the job.
Combined with anecdotal reports from a number of U.S. states where schools are open, as well as a crowdsourced dashboard of around 2,000 U.S. schools, some medical experts are saying it’s time to shift the discussion from the risks of opening K-12 schools to the risks of keeping them closed.
“As a pediatrician, I am really seeing the negative impacts of these school closures on children,” Dr. Danielle Dooley, a medical director at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C., told NPR. She ticked off mental health problems, hunger, obesity due to inactivity, missing routine medical care and the risk of child abuse — on top of the loss of education. “Going to school is really vital for children. They get their meals in school, their physical activity, their health care, their education, of course.”
While agreeing that emerging data is encouraging, other experts said the United States as a whole has made little progress toward practices that would allow schools to make reopening safer — from rapid and regular testing, to contact tracing to identify the source of outbreaks, to reporting school-associated cases publicly, regularly and consistently.
“We are driving with the headlights off, and we’ve got kids in the car,” said Melinda Buntin, chair of the Department of Health Policy at Vanderbilt School of Medicine, who has argued for reopening schools with precautions.
The studies omitted the lessons from fully open college campuses, superspreader events, rapid closing, reopening… “learning loss” is impossible to punch into an mathematical formula, especially when measured by results on flawed standardized tests
.
Erring on the side of safety builds confidence, we’re dealing with lives, the mathematical formula is measuring learning loss versus COVID infections/fatalities: you want to make that decision?
I think there are good lessons to draw from college campuses. Infections do not occur in the classroom, rather they are traced to imprudent socializing after class. Luckily few elementary school students go out to bars or a kegger after classes are over.
Yes – but their parents may. And they may travel and take vacation and be part of sports associations (like hockey).
Beachteach,
Do you think the parents are more likely to do this if their children attend schools in person then if they attend via the net?
I know a college student who stayed away from all social events and wore a mask in public settings–but probably got Covid from a science lab partner. So infections can occur in the classroom.
Dozens of students at this college have been infected.
No doubt there are non-college students in a similar situation. Infections can occur in a classroom. Learning can also occur. Does learning have no value?
According to teachingeconomist, “Infections do not occur in the classroom,” a claim of absolute certainty , if ever there was one
Unfortunately, the reality can be quite different. In fact, the only thing certain in science is that there is no certainty.
Science is all about handling UNcertainty.
But TE would not know science if it put him in intensive care with covid-19.
“Infections do not occur in the classroom, ” proclaims “TE the Omniscient” (TM) with certainty.
“In science, though, everything is uncertain”
Can you say Un-SIR-ten-tee?
I knew you could (but I seriously doubt TE can)
https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/scientists-say-uncertainty
The problem with this position is that it treats schools, teachers, and students as though they are isolated, and not connected to their larger communities. 46 school superintendents in West Michigan just signed a letter warning their communities that if they didn’t pay more attention to strict social distancing and mask wearing they would be forced to close schools for the foreseeable future–it’s worth mentioning that this is the most conservative part of our state, and the home of Betsy DeVos, yet these school leaders are taking a courageous stand on behalf of the children and teachers in their schools.
The superintendents warn: “Unfortunately, the collective hard work of schools alone is not sufficient in controlling community spread of the coronavirus,” the letter says. “Public health experts report significant increases in positive cases across our state and region in recent weeks. Health officials cite that the rise in cases is largely due to a lack of safe practices – mainly distancing and mask wearing – in social settings and community gatherings.
“If cases continue to trend upwards, County Health Departments warn schools may be forced to implement additional restrictions to prevent continued infections. Restrictions may include cancellation, or other mitigation efforts, of extracurricular activities like athletics, band, choir and drama.
“As a worst case scenario, schools may be asked to shift to a distance learning instructional model either periodically or for an extended period of time until cases decline,” the letter warned.
So even if Ms. Kamanetz and others who believe that schools are safe to reopen are right, it won’t matter if those kids and teachers leave the relative safety of their schools only to enter a virtual Petri dish of viral infection at home, in stores, and at restaurants.
With Covid on the rise in 44 states, it’s time to do what we should have done at the beginning of this pandemic–shut down face to face learning until the virus is under control and hospitals have the capacity to handle the large numbers of the infected. This will require Congress to pass a large enough stimulus bill to make it possible for parents of school-aged children to stay home for the time it takes the rest of us to figure out how to wear a mask that covers our noses, and/or a safe and effective vaccine to be administered to the entire population of the US.
We have the money. We need to find the political and moral courage to act.
https://www.bridgemi.com/talent-education/west-michigan-schools-community-mask-covid-or-we-close-down?utm_source=Bridge+Michigan&utm_campaign=00cc230c7c-Bridge+Newsletter+10%2F23%2F20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c64a28dd5a-00cc230c7c-82366380
I honestly hope I’m proven wrong on my past comments about how to respond to the pandemic. But count me as still being strongly skeptical about stories like this. I think the U. of Michigan (sorry for that reference, Mitchell) authorities would disagree given their latest actions. I do have a son away for his freshman year and another who started in-person high school about a month ago and all seems to be going well. But we’re still stressed out about what might go wrong.
strongly skeptical of what? a resurgence of Covid that equals the all-time high last July?
Skeptical about the rosy scenario.
In the post, not your comment, with which I agree. Should have been clearer.
KEY POINT made: “.. it won’t matter if those kids and teachers leave the relative safety of their schools only to enter a virtual Petri dish of viral infection at home, in stores, and at restaurants.”
The title basically says it all, but given that this piece references the “crowdsourced dashboard” being overseen and “analyzed” by economist Emily Oster, I can’t say that I am at all surprised.
Oster implied back in early May of this year (when almost nothing was known about the cov2 viral effects on and transmission by school aged children) that the risks were being exaggerated and has also famously assured pregnant mothers that the risk of drinking alcohol during pregnancy (at the level of 1 glass of wine per day) has been “exaggerated”(eg, by the US Surgeon General, who has said no amount of alcohol is risk free to the developing child).
Emily knows — even before she does.
The devil is in the details (of schools contributing data, data analysis, etc) and there’s undoubtedly lots of legitimate data and analysis on this issue from actual epidemiologists.
Which raises the question: why does the stuff from Oster keep appearing on MY dashboard?
It’s like the Check Engine light from Hell that won’t go away no matter what you do and how much money you spend to fix your car.
Believe me, I know. I drive a 17 year old car that has had the check engine light on for most of the time I have owned it. I used to periodically erase the error codes causing it, but since it always came back, I just put a piece of black tape over it.
Wish I could do the same in this case.
I do still keep checking the engine, though.
Just to make sure it’s still there.
It is — and running like a champ (or like a Saturn, at least)
I hope, and doubt, that this is so. US Covid-19 cases just hit a 3-month high, and other studies show that kids over 10 transmit the virus at the same rate that adults do.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
I think we’re on the same wavelength, both in spirit and timing of our remarks on this.
….reporting school-associated cases publicly, regularly and consistently…”
This is the prerequisite for any sound judgments about any policy related to the virus. For schools this means tracking the presence of the virus not just in classrooms but also in the homes and neighborhoods and modes of transportation being used by students and school staff.
People are fond of screaming data, data, data… but there is scant reporting on cases and new guidelines for safe practice keep changing.
See, for example, the chaos created if schools follow the just issued and new CDC guidelines. http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/inside-school-research/2020/10/cdc_clarifies_15-minute_rule_for_COVID_social_distancing.html
People are fond of screaming data, data, data… but there is scant reporting on cases and new guidelines for safe practice keep changing.”
The problem is it’s not possible to know whether the data and analyses are reliable without looking at them in detail. Short of that , one has to place trust in those collecting the data and doing the analyses.
Is the collection and analysis being done by qualified epidemiologists?
How long have the data been collected?
How much testing was done? How often?
What covid test was (were) used ? What is the estimate for the error rate (particularly false negative rate)
What fraction of the students in the studied schools are attending in person? What is the classroom density? What mitigation measures are in place? What is the condition of the schools?
How are all these factors taken into account when drawing general conclusions about overall school safety?
Does the analysis report results with error/uncertainty estimates? (If not, the results are basically meaningless)
Do those doing the analysis point out potential biases of the data and potential problems of the analyses?
Is a proper risk analysis part of the equation?
Do those doing the analysis make statements like “the risk has been exaggerated” or claim that “schools are not superspreaders” without even defining the term super spreaders?
Where are the results being published? online? At NPR? NY Times? Scientific journals?
These are just a few of the questions that I would ask of those doing the data collection and analysis.
The NPR Journal of Covid Studies
All Things Covid
Pee-er review
All Things bovid
Bull crap too
Thanks for posting.
Right. But when does anyone think the political skinflints will give public schools the money necessary to pay for rapid testing, plexiglass dividers, smaller classes, etc.? The business of America is business – not education.
Randy,
You are right. Without funding for safety, the schools won’t be safe.
No offense, but I’m sick of studies about schools by people who aren’t in the classroom. They sit in their ivory towers and assure us that it’s safe all the while they’re not in any personal danger, themselves. That’s really easy to do. How about I give them advice how to swim with sharks. I’ll stay here on shore but they can go swim with a side of beef tied to their backs. I hear that keeps sharks away. And if not, I can make a ton of money selling tickets to the show.
When a research team releases a study saying schools are safe and then they volunteer to teach in the highest infected covid areas for a full year to prove it – THEN I’ll believe them.
Seriously, though, these studies fly in the face of facts about COVID spread in our communities. My neighborhood district just had at least 9 cases in the last week. And I say “at least” because the district is playing games trying to hide the facts. If it’s so safe, why would they do that? Why wouldn’t they just be transparent?
And this is happening in so many districts.
More than 223,000 people have died in this country. I don’t want to be one of them. I don’t want anyone in my family to be one of them. I don’t want anyone I love to be one of them. And I don’t want any of us to suffer for the rest of our lives with complications from the virus.
Taking that into account necessitates erring on the side of caution. Yet we have these fools telling us to jump back in the pool! The water’s great!
It is infuriating!
Many of the people weighing in on school safety are not only not qualified epidemiologists but actually have absolutely no clue what is required to make such an assessment.
And some of them made up their minds long ago that the risks were exaggerated and are now simply on a hunt for any evidence that backs up their preconceived notions. These folks are easy to pick out because they lack even the most rudimentary knowledge of scientific principles.
As usual, you hit the nail on the rhetorical head. I’d like to require having these “researchers” spend a full week in a classroom and then see what they write.
Exactly. Utah has had at least 20 schools have to shut down because of too many cases at schools, and yet we keep being told that schools don’t spread it. But sports and other extracurricular activities keep going.
Parents are refusing to test their kids so that they can still play sports.
And a lot of we teachers have been trying to get outside more with classes and opening windows and such, which won’t be possible much longer.
These “studies” I think are giving people a false sense of security, and I worry that it will backfire as schools have to go inside more. I sure hope I am wrong.
Agree. We have the same situation in the Northeast. Eating snack outside won’t be possible soon.
If we are not going to listen to the epidemiologists and other medical professionals in their ivory towers (otherwise known as the classrooms where they teach and the teaching hospitals where they daily risk their own lives treating patients), who should we listen to?
For someone with “economist” in his name, you sure don’t seem to understand how money works, TE. These aren’t epidemiologists. These are corporate backed researchers who “find” whatever is in the best interests of their backers. It’s like a Philip Morris funded researcher that “finds” smoking is just great for growing children. I trust people in the trenches, not the armchair generals way in the back assuring us that everything is fine. Come out front and put your own butt on the line. Otherwise, they should just be quiet.
And while I wait for my other comment to post, to answer “who should we listen to?” By no means you.
Steven, did you somehow read my moderated post? Carry on!
Steven,
Have you actually read the NPR article linked to here? Have you ANY EVIDENCE AT ALL THAT THESE PEOPLE FIND WHAT IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THEIR BACKERS?
I have to conclude that you are no different from those that deny climate warming and those that say vaccines cause autism. Can you offer some way to distinguish what you say from vaccine deniers?
Teaching positions vary as do sizes of classes and numbers of people in halls of the buildings at one time. There are lots of variables.
Who should we listen to? The teachers and staff at the buildings where the decisions are being made – in combination with the state epidemiologists.
It’s actually quite hilarious that Teachingeconomist, who has been a consistent booster of crank science ( VAM and the “crapidemiology” of Emily “a glass of wine a day is fine during pregnancy” Oster) is now equating a teacher’s skepticism on an issue with very limited data and considerable UNCERTAINTY with climate change denial and vaccine denial.
Does it get any more ironic than this?
Can TE offer some way to distinguish what he says from brain dead patients on life support?
By the way, I’ve visited crank science blogs like WattsUpWithThat and TE’s ignorance of science rivals anything encountered there.
A tribute to Diane’s Democracy
TE’s head
Is Oster sized
But TE’s never
Ostracized
A pediatrician is not an immunologist. Nor is Dr. Buntin, who is a health (cough, cough, get this) economist. So please, Teaching Economist (Oy!), don’t give people credentials they don’t have and then think “other medical professionals” covers it pauschal (that one’s for you SDP). Please take your contrived equivalence somewhere else.
Perfectly stated. 110% agree.
According to TE, we should listen to economist Emily Oster (heading up the “crowd-sourced dashboard”), whose main claim to “anal-ytical” fame is anal-yzing epidemiological studies of outcomes of drinking during pregnancy and “publishing” (in what became a best selling book for expecting mothers) her IgNobel Medicine Prize worthy conclusion that drinking a glass of wine a day can’t hurt (contrary to what the US Surgeon General, The American Academy of Pediatrics, American College of Obstetricians and many other medical organizations have cautioned)
But Oster is a stable genius* among unstable idiots. She just knows what everyone else doesn’t about everything she decides to apply her anal-ytical genius to (not unlike TE and so many other economists)
And for anyone who doesn’t know what a stable genius is
(The stable part of the genius is the end you don’t see)
And here’s what the National Organization on Fetal Alcohol Syndrome thinks about the medical advice of Oster
https://www.nofas.org/emily_oster/#:~:text=The%20National%20Organization%20on%20Fetal,You%20Really%20Need%20to%20Know.
Oh. And Osters secondary claim to fame is her much touted (by Wall Street Journal and other “science” journals) — albeit very likely wrong –claim that Hepatitis B was largely the cause of millions of “missing women” in China.
Unfortunately, Oster later had to retract her claim because it did not comport with the evidence — not even with evidence that was available when Oster made the claim.
But the main problem with Osters claim was not even that it was wrong, but the way she and others made it
You can read about that here
https://voxeu.org/article/journalism-and-science-hepatitis-b-and-missing-women
Others are free to make up their own minds, but I would not trust Osters proclamations on school safety as far as an ant can throw a stick.
But the president says it’s safe. (What a fool).
And, few politicians seem smart enough to say, “Yes – open schools ONLY IF… these protocols are in place.. and HERE’S THE FUNDING to do it right.”
The only way to open schools is slowly, phased in, overly conservative prevention protocols and measure put in place, and a commitment and constant reminder everyone has to play by the rules.
6 feet distancing everywhere, masks, wash hands routinely, wipe down surfaces, and VENTILLATION, keeping pods/classes of kids together and not room to room for now, and others IS SCIENCE – – but it’s not rocket science. Just follow the protocols and don’t get complacent. And, ENFORCE the protocols if broken. Teachers need to know there is no “oh, it’s ok” if kids refuse to distance or wear masks. Routine communications with parents. (Amazing how parent-teacher conference participation is UP with it being virtual)!
And, trust among adults.
Adults must be able to trust that their team teacher didn’t go to a big party in the ozarks or some major indoor, unmasked function (outdoors protests seem to be ok if masked). Adults have to trust that others stay protected as best as possible when not in school.
If the politicians, scratch that, if the president and the red disciples in state houses had done their jobs and listened to experts, we’d be back 100%. Whoever thought that this is how they would destroy public education and increase the racial and economic divide?
One of the most inane policies ever on handling Covid in schools was instituted by the Billings, MT, schools superintendent. The New York Times wrote about it, and the Billings Gazette has additional details:
“14-minute shuffle”
https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/14-minute-shuffle-billings-schools-retreat-from-controversial-policy-after-criticism-from-health-experts/article_83c7cc04-617b-5537-aca0-a2f8483a3d6c.html
What’s inane about that?
Everyone knows that viruses move very slowly (countless studies by economists have proven this beyond a shadow of a smidgeon of a micropossibility of a doubt), so if kids move around , the viruses will never be able to catch them.
It’s just very basic physics.
The Covid Theory of Relativity
If child moves like light
But virus moves like matter
Then virus loses fight
To overtake the chatter
Armchair experts
I’d rather go with armist
An armchair scientist
Than go with an alarmist
Who wanders in the mist
We opened full F2F in mid September and our numbers have steadily climbed ever since. Out of 95 counties we are now ranked 7th for active Covid cases. Deaths are occurring daily. We are now in the red zone, hospital is reducing elective surgeries and we are still going to school on a hybrid schedule. We are in Northeast Tennessee.
Today we reached the highest number of reported cases in the US since the pandemic began.
Wait, what! Trump said we turned the corner!
We have turned the corner into the lane of an oncoming bus.
We did turn a corner! To a more crowded metaphorical six-lane highway. The next corner will be a ten-lane superhighway in gridlock.
Turning the corner
The cube has many a corner
And turning one will bring
From that one to another
Like Rubik on a fling
Turning the Coroner
We’ve finally turned the Coroner
Into a billionaire!
Where wealth was just a foreigner
It’s now a love affair
Schools have not been open long enough to make broad statements based on data from this fall. It takes weeks to know how spread in a community is happening – and that is only if contract tracing is being done and cases are being properly reported.
If a community has very low positivity rates, students are masked and school districts have the resources to lower class sizes, provide a hybrid model and stay on top of illnesses, it may be safe to open in person. This is a lot of ifs.
Headlines like this cause people to jump to conclusions about all schools, in all community. I think it’s irresponsible.
oops – in all “communities”
New evidence shows the virus can linger for hours. Our schools notoriously have poor ventilation systems. Kids don’t exist just at school. There is no funding to make schools safer. Kids are spreaders. We have no real testing and tracking program – so how can we take such claims seriously? Teachers have already died. What is an “acceptable” number of teacher and student deaths?
Some news from Texas.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/23/texas-students-remote-learning-failing-schools/
The NPR report relies on a Spanish study. As far as I know, in most European schools, kids stay in the same classroom with the same 20 or so kids since they all take the same classes. In the US, kids mix with each other much more, since they meet different set of kids for each class. Also, in Europe, they open the windows of classrooms, and there is much less circulated air.
You know we are really screwed when people get their science from NPR
At what point did America transistion from the beginning of the end of brick and mortar education to the middle of the end of brick and mortar public education?
I guess that would be about NOW.
Returning to school is not the priority for the people in charge.
The Reset button is all that matters.
https://www.weforum.org/events/the-jobs-reset-summit-2020/themes/education-skills-and-lifelong-learning
Does this statement make any sense?
“Where you see cases on the rise in a neighborhood, in a county, we see that tend to be reflected in a school,” Dickson said. “[But] we’re not seeing spread by virtue of being in school together.” That’s from Utah.
BTW, in a similar NYT article (Schoolchildren Seem Unlikely to Fuel Coronavirus Surges, Scientists Say, 10/22) there were a few wry comments in the thread about the data-reporting in Utah. One even noted “Moms’ groups” with mutual pacts not to report their own children’s cases so as to minimize the number of quarantine interruptions.
This NPR article is far more well-reported and neutral by comparison to the NYT article. However, the NYT brought out a couple of good suggestions not covered here.
One is that in terms of containing community spread, F2F teaching should take priority over indoor dining, bars, gyms, & large[r] gatherings of adults in stores/ events etc. Netherlands was noted as using this guideline. I’ve read elsewhere that in a few Scandinavian locales, this is how it’s done: when local rates rise, adult gathering spots are curtailed first—schools only if that doesn’t bring them down.
The other was not covered in the article but frequently raised in the comment thread: PK-5 should be given priority for F2F teaching (w/all safety precautions in place); the scientific stats seem to support this. One could add that childcare is most needed for this age-group (re: parents working onsite); they are the least likely to benefit from online ed, and arguably the poor among them the most in need of social supports. Also, teachers and parents observed in the comment thread elemsch kids ‘follow rules better’ (& are more easily monitored) re: observing masks & distancing.