The New York Times reported two studies that found that children transmit the virus.
Among the most important unanswered questions about Covid-19 is this: What role do children play in keeping the pandemic going?
Fewer children seem to get infected by the coronavirus than adults, and most of those who do have mild symptoms, if any. But do they pass the virus on to adults and continue the chain of transmission?
The answer is key to deciding whether and when to reopen schools, a step that President Trump urged states to consider before the summer.
Two new studies offer compelling evidence that children can transmit the virus. Neither proved it, but the evidence was strong enough to suggest that schools should be kept closed for now, many epidemiologists who were not involved in the research said.
Many other countries, including Israel, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have all either reopened schools or are considering doing so in the next few weeks.
In some of those countries, the rate of community transmission is low enough to take the risk. But in others, including the United States, reopening schools may nudge the epidemic’s reproduction number — the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single case, commonly referred to as R0 — to dangerous levels, epidemiologists warned after reviewing the results from the new studies.
In one study, published last week in the journal Science, a team analyzed data from two cities in China — Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, and Shanghai — and found that children were about a third as susceptible to coronavirus infection as adults were. But when schools were open, they found, children had about three times as many contacts as adults, and three times as many opportunities to become infected, essentially evening out their risk.
Based on their data, the researchers estimated that closing schools is not enough on its own to stop an outbreak, but it can reduce the surge by about 40 to 60 percent and slow the epidemic’s course.
“My simulation shows that yes, if you reopen the schools, you’ll see a big increase in the reproduction number, which is exactly what you don’t want,” said Marco Ajelli, a mathematical epidemiologist who did the work while at the Bruno Kessler Foundation in Trento, Italy.
The second study, by a group of German researchers, was more straightforward. The team tested children and adults and found that children who test positive harbor just as much virus as adults do — sometimes more — and so, presumably, are just as infectious.
“Are any of these studies definitive? The answer is ‘No, of course not,’” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who was not involved in either study. But, he said, “to open schools because of some uninvestigated notion that children aren’t really involved in this, that would be a very foolish thing.”
The German study was led by Christian Drosten, a virologist who has ascended to something like celebrity status in recent months for his candid and clear commentary on the pandemic. Dr. Drosten leads a large virology lab in Berlin that has tested about 60,000 people for the coronavirus. Consistent with other studies, he and his colleagues found many more infected adults than children.
The team also analyzed a group of 47 infected children between ages 1 and 11. Fifteen of them had an underlying condition or were hospitalized, but the remaining were mostly free of symptoms. The children who were asymptomatic had viral loads that were just as high or higher than the symptomatic children or adults.
“In this cloud of children, there are these few children that have a virus concentration that is sky-high,” Dr. Drosten said.
He noted that there is a significant body of work suggesting that a person’s viral load tracks closely with their infectiousness. “So I’m a bit reluctant to happily recommend to politicians that we can now reopen day cares and schools.”
Dr. Drosten said he posted his study on his lab’s website ahead of its peer review because of the ongoing discussion about schools in Germany.
Many statisticians contacted him via Twitter suggesting one or another more sophisticated analysis. His team applied the suggestions, Dr. Drosten said, and even invited one of the statisticians to collaborate.
“But the message of the paper is really unchanged by any type of more sophisticated statistical analysis,” he said. For the United States to even consider reopening schools, he said, “I think it’s way too early.”
I’m sure researchers are now trying to figure out why asymptomatic individuals do not show symptoms. What is it about their immune systems that makes them less susceptible to the virus? With this most recent information, that asymptomatic children in some cases had a much higher viral load than those who were symptomatic, someone(s) somewhere(s) are staying up late at night and/or spending long days in the lab trying to figure out why and how we can use that info to fight COVID-19 more effectively.
I don’t want to hear abot any teachers volunteering or being forced to return to work “for the children.” Those children could be the death of them.
In conversations I’ve had with physicians and researchers who are dealing with COVID-19 on an hourly basis, the one word that comes up more than any other is “heterogeneous.” This is short hand for everyone reacts differently, there is no one-size-fits-all explanation, and they are trying to figure out their best why this is so. I’ve come to the conclusion that the only medical opinion to follow is that we have to get comfortable with uncertainty in the short- to medium-term. Every day physicians are seeing symptoms and reactions that are completely new to them, no matter how many patients with COVID-19 they have encountered. This is not unlike the experiences of physicians during the 1917-1920 American flu (which was misnamed the Spanish flu) and AIDS in the 1980s. Based on this history and current experience, anyone who claims to have definitive answers should be treated with extreme skepticism, if not outright dismissal, until randomized clinical trials are conducted. And that take time. Or as William Burroughs wrote, “Death needs time for what it kills to grow in.”
“Heterogeneous” is what makes this virus scary and unpredictable. Some people with no preexisting conditions believe that they may get a mild infection, but they wind up being a death statistic. Other people had such mild symptoms that they didn’t even know they had it.
Re: heterogeneity: There is a story covered in the LA Times and Washington Post about an ongoing analysis of gene sequences in COVID-19 patients that suggests (suggest is medical-ese for, “it’s interesting and possibly significant, but we’re not willing to go beyond that right now) the virus may not be stable and capable of having many mutations.
“If the pandemic fails to wane seasonally as the weather warms, the study warns, the virus could undergo further mutations even as research organizations prepare the first medical treatments and vaccines. Without getting on top of the risk now, the effectiveness of vaccines could be limited.”
Both stories are behind pay walls, but I found a reprint of the LA Times story in another paper: https://www.concordmonitor.com/A-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says-34211676
Before the peanut gallery chimes in, this is not a reason for panic, but of measured concern to help with our decision-making.
What especially scares me is that people are pushing for a reopening and we are by no means ready or able to deal with a new escalation of cases. Heck, most of the country isn’t past the first bout. Yes, we have to reopen at some point, but there is a hell of a lot of work to be done preparing how to open, when to open, and what opening will look like for all the various constituents. How much good does it do to social distance in schools when children go home to a two bedroom apartment with too many people live? I just read an account of a young Latinx mother who went back to work in a nursing home after giving birth to her third child. She just died and her husband, who also works at the nursing home, is infected as well. Just whose lives are worth risking when we can’t take care of people right now? Then there is the meat processing plant in Minnesota ordered to stay open despite a number of cases. They are mostly Somali refugees, so they count less than …? I guess what is really terrifying is that we have an administration in D.C. that has proved itself totally incapable of managing this crisis.
Here’s an example of what you cite:
https://www.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2020/05/05/texas-gov-greg-abbott-caught-on-recording-saying-reopening-will-increase-spread-of-coronavirus
Thank you for posting this, Diane. I value the community you have forged and built. I value it because you’re the real deal and the vast majority of people, like me, who have read your books and found this site, understand that empiricism and honest scholarship lead to fundamental truths, which are so hard to find today. When I first became aware of you in 1991, I thought you were smart, but there was something that didn’t jibe with me at the time. I was fortunate to have had two intense, personal conversations with Al Shanker, who said I should pay attention to you but take some views with a grain of salt. I witnessed your engagement in the process of the development of National Standards for Civic Education, which should have been the most controversial, but turned out to be the least, that were cynically attacked by Lynne Cheney. Our paths diverged until 2010.
You’ve never disappointed me since, even when we have disagreed. Your fidelity to scholarship and evidence are rare in this day and age. You do not have an ideology, which I believe this the greatest cancer on social and political thought in our time, if not ever. You could very easily have chucked it all to cash in on paid articles, lucrative board memberships, and a place at the table of power. You didn’t. And this post encapsulates this as well as anything you’ve ever done. I know I’m high maintenance and a pain, but I thank you for constantly engaging me and others more talented and committed that me to care about pubic education so deeply, even though I do not have a professional stake and have very little personal stake in it, unlike the vast majority of your readers. I consider them to be best people I know of, but have never met and will likely never meet.
Such a lovely comment, Greg!
(And you most definitely are neither a pain nor high maintenance!)
Ditto.
I second everything that Greg B has written so accurately and so clearly. Thank you, Diane. You have helped me survive these past years.
I third the above. Glad to see GregB posting again and spot on post about what is so amazing about Diane and this blog.
Exactly right, GregB!!! I feel the same way, and so does almost everyone else who comments here regularly. Thank you for articulating this so well.
Thanks belongs to Diane and Diane only. Please forgive the typos, but I think you get my drift.
Hear, hear!!
There is also this alarming news about children and coronavirus:
“One child, 8 years old, arrived at a Long Island hospital near death last week. His brother, a boy scout, had begun performing chest compressions before the ambulance crew reached their home.
“In the past two days alone, the hospital, Cohen Children’s Medical Center, has admitted five critically ill patients — ages 4 to 12 — with an unusual sickness that appears to be somehow linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by coronavirus. In total, about 25 similarly ill children have been admitted there in recent weeks with symptoms ranging from reddened tongues to enlarged coronary arteries.
“Since the coronavirus pandemic began, most infected children have not developed serious respiratory failure of the kind that has afflicted adults. But in recent weeks, a mysterious new syndrome has cropped up among children in Long Island, New York City and other hot spots around the country, in an indication that the risk to children may be greater than anticipated.”
You’ve written a lot of important posts, Diane–ones with advice and warnings that, if followed, can make enormous differences in the lives of children. But this might well be the most important post of all. If this warning is not heeded, teachers and administrators and staff and parents and, yes, some children are likely to die who otherwise wouldn’t have. There was also a piece in the Times about how children who never develop symptoms of Covid-19 but are asymptomatic carriers, can, in some cases, develop other serious illness as a result of this virus’s assault on their immune systems. Here’s the link:
Ah, I see that Christine was posting this at the same time I was! LOL.
Thank you, Diane, for getting the news out about these important stories!!!!
All his life, except, perhaps, when he was a kid and his father was belittling him and creating the monstrous need for continual praise that the “adult” Trump now has, Trump has been pampered, catered to. He has always been the boss. He has always had things his way. He built a cult of personality around himself and was ruthless toward anyone in his circle who didn’t grovel.
Stalin was like that, too. And so were many other crime bosses and dictators. But here’s what happens to such people: they become not only monsters of narcissism, but they also become magical thinkers. They start believing their own bs. Everyone knows that Trump is a shameless and quotidian liar. But I think it’s even worse than that. When Trump says or does x and then a minute later claims that he said or did not-x, I think he actually believes the latter. In other words, a lifetime of the cult of personality has made him actually delusional. Insane. Crazy. Psychotic, for psychosis consists in dramatic distortions of reality. The “man” needs to be in a psych ward, not in the Oval Office.
So, people like him–delusional people who lie and believe their own lies–are immune to reality checks. Whatever they want to be the case, for them, becomes the case. Trump wants the economy to be booming so that he can be reelected because he believes himself to have been the greatest president ever, and he wants this disease just to go away, and most people would say to themselves, “Well, that stinks. You can’t always get what you want.”
But for Trump, whatever he wants to be the case IS REALITY. And so he has been suppressing the science and urging everyone to get back to their pre-Covid lives and pretending that it’s just going to go away any moment now, but for him, it is not pretending. I think he actually believe this because he is deeply, profoundly, psychologically ill. And because of his sickness, this other sickness is going to kill a lot more people than it otherwise would.
In other words, Trump isn’t EXACTLY, I would say, a liar. He’s like the one who leave the following note for the day nurse in the ward:
No meds for me, thank you. I’m fine. –Joan of Arc
According to reports I’ve made up, Joan figured out she blew it. “Damn, wish I had those meds. This fire stuff is for the birds!”
You had me at la la. Love this song. As one of those dastardly secular humanists, I have a fascination with Joan (as I do with John Brown), especially with Dreyer’s silent move and Twain’s under-rated (and his personal favorite) novel. As for Leonard, this is the song that’s been swimming in my head lately:
LOL, SomeDAM. Funny.
As you doubtless know, for you know so much European history so well, she was captured, in the end, after her breathtaking but short career, because she stayed with those left behind to hold off the enemy while her troops made a strategic retreat. She didn’t have to do this. A brave one to the end.
Here’s the opposite of that: “I take no responsibility.” –Donnie Trump
Oh, Lord, Greg. Yes. That’s the song that’s been on continual loop in my head as well. If Cohen had written only this, he would be, in my book, a great poet. He nailed our time in this.
You may enjoys this, Bob. It’s a short piece from Latvian composer Emils Darzins, who died at a young age, called Valse melancolique. I’ve been playing it a lot lately, it seems as though it was written for these times. This version can be found on Favourite Encores by Neeme Järvi and the Detroit Symphony Orchestra.
& this post gives the answer to The Economist post as to why schools are not yet ready to open, & may not be any time soon with this ever-changing information about an insidious virus.
This time, it’s the science, stupid.
Beautiful, retired!!!! Exactly.
I miss the kids, too.
a good bumper sticker: It’s the science, stupid.
BTW–this is National Educators Appreciation week, so thank you to everyone who is teaching. Jimmy Kimmel had an extremely humorous piece about “parents thanking teachers” last night.
& now–we value you so much that, well, science be damned! March yourselves right back into those schools!
Call Bill Gates immediately. Need to implement extreme social distancing in schools starting fall to ensure the safety of all staff. Need to do this until a vaccine or cure is found—until 2025 or longer if necessary. Students must have temperatures taken before they can enter school. Students attend classes two days a week to alleviate crowding. No recess permitted. All sports cancelled. All schools implement remote learning technology to supplement reduction of class time. Technology provided by Microsoft at big discounts. Huge budget cuts to education for several years as state revenue continues to plummet from global depression. Hiring freezes, salary freezes, pension squeezes, and teacher furloughs result. Technology is in place to pick up the slack.
And the purpose in jumping to extremes is what?
To illustrate the implications of the position that reopening schools will be unacceptably risky for teachers as long as the virus is still spreading and there is no vaccine. Many of these conditions have been outlined already by the UFT in NYC as return-to-work conditions. So I’m not just making these up.
Extreme illustrations in the service of sound policy decision/actions, yes. Fear mongering and ridiculing of opposing viewpoints serve no purpose. Opening schools without sound policy based on extensive scientific data and planning is at best callous.
If we don’t have scientific data sufficient to allay the fears of teachers, then maybe schools don’t reopen in the fall. Remote learning technology will become hugely important in that event.
What role the remote learning technology plays is equally important although the edupreneurs will try to convince the powers that be that their canned programs can replace actual teacher-student interaction. Technology as a tool has a lot to offer. Whether we can adequately supply access to all students is another thing. We may need to go back to some of the old technology offered through TV programming. I believe kids in the outback in Australia used to get their schooling through radio. Maybe it’s time to rethink some of the old technology as well. We ought to be playing with lots of different ideas.
Well, but I think one would have to look at it in terms of “essential workers”, because that’s how we have operated in the US. Not everyone has stopped going to work- hundreds of millions of people have continued to go to work.
Obviously medical and health care people, but also transportation, the huge sector that produces, processes, transports and sells food, law enforcement, and many more deemed essential.
So are schools essential? I would say they are.
No one would be saying it’s safe to reopen schools- it’s more dangerous to work at a Costco than it is to attend Zoom meetings- they would be saying school employees are essential on-site workers, like transportation, or the people who maintain and deliver utilities, or law enforcement, or food.
I think it was reasonable to close schools short term and I see the risk, but I do think schools are essential on-site, especially as more and more people go back to work because “essential” isn’t a fixed category. They’ve started up non-emergency or acute medical care because while it wasn’t “essential” short term, it is essential long term. It went from non-essential to essential because it had to.
Ah! So we have school so parents can go to work! We shouldn’t lose too many children or their relatives. Maybe the third of teachers who qualify as high risk should quit, so they aren’t a drag on the budget when we have to find people to fill their ranks. I know you are not suggesting this scenario is acceptable, Chiara, but we have to know way more how to safely conduct school before we open. Schools should not become the next meat plant disaster.
Too, there’s already a huge push in ed reform to “reinvent” schools and end the (dreaded) “buildings” that are holding up innovation, or something, so I would suggest we deem schools essential or they’ll swoop in and take them.
Jeb Bush is already churning out columns touting the cheap online classes he’s been promoting for years. We’ll end up with schools being a luxury item only the wealthy can access, because of course all of this stuff is only pushed on low and middle income kids- wealthy kids still get “buildings”.
I don’t know if it’s true for all teachers, but observing as a parent it looks to me like “remote” learning is MORE work for teachers, not less. It has to be easier to have them all in a room if we’re talking about 30 kids to a class in public schools, and we are.
Remote learning for my kids has essentially been homework assignments. It’s very close to home schooling. My son does Zoom sessions with a math tutor, which is the only way he gets actual math instruction.
Keep this up into the fall and beyond, and I’ll have to ask myself, why not just home-school?
It’s spotty, I know. My son is in high school and fairly self-directed but the only consistent formal “lessons” he is getting are in math class because his math teacher holds them on Zoom.
One thing that DOES work well on Zoom is guidance, IMO. I think he has more contact with the guidance counselor now than he did when school was in session.
I think you and I generally agree schools must open in the fall. I think schools are the definition of “essential”.
I’m confident they will open.
I would be less confident about colleges – I think dorms might be a real problem. Those to me are cruise ship territory as far as spread.
Here’s the Jeb Bush plan:
“On Monday, the Avondale Board of Education voted to close Avondale Academy and to restructure it as the Avondale Diploma and Careers Institute Virtual School – a fully online alternative high school.
Social studies teacher Paul Sandy said he is horrified by the board’s decision. He created the petition “Save Avondale Academy” and, as of Tuesday evening, it has more than 500 online signatures.”
It’s an alternative school, so of course the kids who may need personal contact the most have been sacrificed. Not to be a cynic, but you know how this works. You know which kids will get robbed by this. We have so much experience with virtual schools! Ohio invested BILLIONS in them- cheered on at every step of the way by the leaders of the ed reform “movement”- a disaster.
https://www.theoaklandpress.com/news/avondale-alternative-high-school-closes-to-switch-to-fully-virtual-education/article_cd5de8ac-8ef6-11ea-b253-03aec4e56497.html
Here comes the skunk at the wedding…
No one, as far as I’m aware, is disputing the idea that children transmit the virus It’s been known almost from the beginning that they are much more likely to be asymptomatic carriers than to actually get the disease themselves.
But that’s not the point. The point is the problem with the alarmist talk about “endangering” or even “sacrificing” our children. There are a few hundred serious cases in the U.S. among “children” under 20 (I have not been able to find statistics that tease out how many of those “children” are 18 or over) and about 20 deaths, all but a couple of whom had underlying conditions. Statistically, children are infinitely more likely to die in car crashes, but I’ve never heard anyone hyperventilate about “sacrificing” our children by taking them on errands or road trips.
Yes, yes, of course, it’s a serious concern that kids transmit the virus to adults. But that is an entirely different issue. It’s not about “the children”, it’s about adults. Absolutely we need to have that conversation and figure out how best to protect adults, but the issue boils down to to what extent and for how long is it morally justifiable to confine and isolate children in order to protect adults? Children thrive on social – even physical = contact and large body movement and play. Zoom meetings for 4 year olds (or even 10 or 14 year olds) is simply not an adequate substitute. The longer this goes on, the more we are risking serious mental health consequences to an entire generation of kids, who, incidentally, are the future for us all. BTW, the mental health consequences I’m talking about are far more than “quarantine sucks” – I’m talking about lifelong depression, anxiety, and even suicide.
I’m not saying there are easy solutions or that we should just let the virus run rampant. But what I’ve been saying all along is that there is more than one aspect to this pandemic. Considering and balancing other factors like economic and mental health factors is not “wanting people to die for Wall Street”.
Yesterday there was considerable reaction to the idea that people are “panicked” about the virus, but the sheer inability for people to hear other points of view and honestly evaluate what dissenters are actually saying rather than painting them as demonic suggests rampant terror. Please understand that you are not the only ones afraid, but every single person has a unique constellation of things that we are afraid of, the virus being only one of them. So anyway, go ahead and rip me apart and yell at me for – even though I said exactly the opposite – “wanting people to die for Wall Street”.
Many have theorized that children may be less effective transmitters based on at least (1) the total or near-total number of cases tracked to children by contract tracing and (2) the theory, based on collected medical data, that children (particularly young children) have lower viral loads than adults. It’s by no means conclusive, and this study complicates things.
But yes, children themselves are clearly not in serious danger. That doesn’t mean no children have died from COVID-19. It means the statistical impact on children is VERY low. All available data from cities, states, and countries bears this out. NYC’s data can be treated as an exemplar, given the scale of the crisis in NYC:
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
FLERP!,
It’s also possible to theorize that the reason that NYC had such a drastic death toll compared to San Francisco and LA was exacerbated by even that short delay – a week? – in closing schools and putting in sheltering in place orders.
The entire point of “flattening the curve” is to spread out the severe illnesses — and neither you nor dienne77 have talked about severe illnesses in children that required hospitalization which has happened at a significantly higher rate than influenza.
Can you imagine what would happen if children’s hospitalization rooms started to look like what happened with adults? The countries with overwhelmed medical systems had far more deaths. NYC was overwhelmed and it likely led to people getting treated too late and ending up with worse symptoms. Meanwhile, San Francisco, which seemed to have an earlier outbreak had beds available. People who were sick could go to the hospital without waiting until it was too late.
Hearing people saying “reopen the schools, you are demonizing those who want to open the schools and I want to do it” reminds me of being in a PTA meeting and having that “helpful” know it all parent who has a great idea for a fundraiser that will be so great. Of course, that parent has no interest in figuring out how to execute their idea but they know it is such a fantastic idea that someone else will be able to do all the work and raise tons of money. When no one reacts by praising them for their great idea, or another parent who has volunteered many hundreds of hours to make that happen, the parent with the “great idea” gets very angry and accuses the entire PTA of not wanting to hear great ideas and raise money and being too lazy or too mean to parent with great ideas. How dare those parents not agree with them that this is a great idea that should happen now!
I found that the best reply to those people is to say “sounds like a promising idea, you should write up all the details of exactly how you would make this happen”.
So, either you and dienne77 are saying that schools should reopen exactly as they were before COVID or you both have some idea about how this can be done so that the kids with vulnerable parents and grandparents, the kids with vulnerable conditions themselves, the kids with vulnerable siblings, the kids whose parents are doctors, nurses, firemen, and other workers who are constantly being exposed every day are taken into account.
What’s the plan? Same crowded classrooms? Who cleans them? How do students get to school? Are masks required and what happens if a kid takes his off — suspensions? What if they are six and putting their hands in their mouths and touching their friends? How many teachers are required for a first grade class of 30+ and who is paying for all those teachers and how do we find trained and vetted teachers who can double the number of adults in the classroom — or triple them — while knowing all of those adults are safe and vetted?
All the gun-toting people who want to open up businesses again think it is a terrific idea. They don’t need no stinking plan. They don’t understand that the death rate we have is not nearly as high as it would be if what we saw in the most overwhelmed hospitals in March becomes the norm for more than a few weeks. Because those kids will keep bringing it home.
I have not heard an outpouring of support to open public schools from the medical professionals working in the front lines of this pandemic whose own children are among those who have it the worst, since their parents can’t be there to oversee their remote learning.
Instead, I hear it from people who have this great idea that they expect someone else to execute.
So I ask you and dienne77 to offer up a little more detail in how you imagine this is done.
That would be a lot more useful than having someone (not FLERP!) angry and accusatory because everyone questions how this would be possible.
I give the PTA parent challenge. You think something is a good idea and you are angry that someone else won’t execute your great idea, then you should explain to us how you want it done.
Trump has lots of “great ideas” for how the pandemic will be gone. He has a great idea about testing and a great idea about new medicines and new vaccines. Lots of “great ideas” from a person who has no ability whatsoever to execute anything but giving his cronies something to enrich themselves.
There is a lot more to reopening schools than people saying it’s a great idea and then spending their time attacking the people who challenge them for not “honestly evaluating” their great idea!
How can we “honestly evaluate” an idea like that? It’s a pie in the sky vaugue nonsense without any details that explain how it is supposed to happen.
Really reminds me of PTA parent who shows up at a meeting and stands up to offer their “idea’ and is angry that the PTA officers and others won’t execute their wonderful “idea”.
Tell us how you think it can be done.
NYCPSP, the genocide twins should get together and head over to Yale to set this guy straight. He’s obviously in a panic:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/epidemiologist-coronavirus-genocide-by-default_n_5eb2a5ebc5b63e6bd96f5d81
And if they can’t get to New Haven, perhaps they try San Francisco.
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/05/417356/initial-results-mission-district-covid-19-testing-announced
There is also this from Vox: https://www.vox.com/2020/5/2/21241636/coronavirus-children-kids-spread-transmit-switzerland
TE,
I think you miss the point. Adults who work in schools have contracted the virus and have died. Did you not know that? Maybe you did not see the post about the staff in NYC schools who got the virus and died.
Although we don’t know that they got the virus in schools (as opposed to at home, in bars or restaurants, in the subway, in many other places).
Also, the DOE says that the number of DOE employees who have died with coronavirus is 72. The DOE has 150k employees, so that works out to 42 deaths per 100,000. That’s about 25% of the citywide death rate. (163 per 100k.)
NYC Bus drivers and subway workers have died, yet others still come to work because they are needed. Healthcare workers have died, yet others still come to work because they are needed. People up and down the food supply chain have died, yet others still come to work because they are needed. If schools are open this fall, teachers will die, yet others will, I think, still come to work because they are also needed.
You go first.
FLERP!
Not sure why it would be relevant to compare DOE employee death rate to the city death rate. How does the DOE death rate compare to the death rate of doctors or nurses or lawyers or accountants or finance industry workers.
The city death rate includes a very high percentage of people in nursing homes and I believe the median age was quite high. I think if you compared the two you would find that the median age of DOE employees who died was significantly lower, and there were also deaths of people who worked in private and parochial schools.
People who work full time for the DOE do not include people who are very elderly and are too sick to be working.
I also believe it is impossible to understand what the real impact of this is without having good data on the hospitalization rates – and the lengths of those – of DOE employees who did not die.
It’s useful because it puts this in context and dispels the notion that the fact that some teachers have died from/with the virus does not necessarily mean that schools are especially high risk workplaces.
Deaths among the elderly do indeed pull the citywide numbers higher. On the other hand; the low fatality rates for people younger than 44 pull the citywide rate in the opposite direction. (The falsity rate is 16.5 per 100k for ages 18-44, and 0.0 per 100k —that’s right, zero—for ages 0-17.)
For another comparison, the citywide fatality rate for people aged 45-64 is 151 per 100k—more than 3 times the fatality rate of DOE employees.
The fatality rate of NYPD employees is multiples higher than that for DOE employees. Should the NYPD shut down until there’s a vaccine?
Read the article again, Diane. It does not advocate opening anything, but suggests that we need more research before any such conclusion can be drawn. It cites many examples that caution against opening schools. Bottom line is we don’t know enough.
Where did I say that the article advocated opening schools or anything else? It said we don’t know enough right now.
“TE,
I think you miss the point. Adults who work in schools have contracted the virus and have died. Did you not know that? Maybe you did not see the post about the staff in NYC
schools who got the virus and died.”
I didn’t express myself very well. I didn’t think TE missed the point. The VOX article for which he gave a link, was a balanced accounting.
FLERP!
Your reasoning is confusing. If I follow your logic, every business should be open as long as the employee death rate is lower than the NYPD?
I had suggested that a more illuminating comparison would be to compare the DOE to some of the hardest hit frontline working industries like the NYPD and the medical field, and ALSO to other industries like financial firms and corporate headquarters.
Surely you don’t believe that the measure of whether all businesses should be back up running as usual is whether their employee death rate is lower than the NYPD. By that reasoning, let’s go back to normal now.
I wrote a long post that disappeared, but the gist of it is that all these suggestions of re-opening the schools remind me of the parent who comes to a PTA meeting for the first time with a “great idea” that will raise lots of money. They stand up and say that idea in one sentence and expect someone else to do all the work to figure out how to do it because they just know it will work and they have done their part by offering up this get idea! Then once people start asking questions that illuminate the problems with the idea, they get very angry and accuse the PTA of not listening to great ideas.
The best way to deal with those kind of “I have a great idea that someone else should figure out how to do” parents is to say to them “that’s a great idea, please explain in much more detail exactly how you would get it done.” They usually disappear when they actually have to do more than offer up their “great suggestion”.
But, to be fair, sometimes some of them actually have an idea and are willing to think about it and figure out how to make it possible to do. They listen to a lot of the supposed naysayers and present their idea in a way that addresses those real problems.
Many others simply continue to believe “it’s a great idea and if you were a good PTA you would figure out how to do it perfectly so I could take credit for the idea or blame you if it doesn’t work because you just didn’t do it the way I knew it could be done.”
I do challenge those who feel that students should be back in school to offer up even the slightest ideas of how that would be done and how all the problems people have mentioned would be addressed.
Children on subway? Young kids who take off their masks? Young kids who put their hands in their mouths and share toys and materials with other kids? Children with underlying health problems? Children whose parents are first responders and are more likely to be infected? Children who live with elderly family members? Testing children regularly?
Hiring more staff to keep kids apart? Who vets that staff? Who makes sure that staff has been trained and makes sure that serious background checks is made on all the new staff?
Kids hospitalized for long periods of time? Teachers hospitalized for long periods of time? Overwhelmed hospitals?
It’s easy to have an idea. It isn’t easy to come up with a viable plan that addresses all of those issues.
In my opinion, de Blasio has publicly acknowledged that distance learning has huge disadvantages. He isn’t claiming it is better. He is saying that it is the solution that seems to do the LEAST harm, but not that it does no harm. Now some people might believe that the least harm is having 100,000 more people die and having their kids in school is better.
But one of the most notable things about what is happening in the US is that the people most likely to die also happen to be the most vulnerable.
Until I hear medical professionals saying that they want their own child’s school to open, I will remain very skeptical of the motives of those who insist that anyone who questions those with the “great idea” to reopen schools is not treating them fairly.
I challenge those who want to reopen schools to give even a smidgeon of details of how this would be done. And if the idea is to simply reopen exactly as it was, then at least own that idea that it will hurt many, many kids, even if it does benefit the most privileged.
Dr. Ravitch,
I can not go first because of all the people who never stopped going, the ones that are risking their lives to sustain those that stay in. If the governor, mayor, and chancellor allow it, however, I will be teaching in my usual classrooms this fall.
I repeat (&, NOT being an “alarmist” type): IT’S.THE. SCIENCE. STUPID.
Did you not hear Fauci say that this thing (which they still know very little about, & has just mutated) could come roaring back in the fall, & could be even worse? & that they (the scientists) are not sure if one who had tested + for covid-19 was immune from getting it again? &, now, this, about children “w/a syndrome that doctors do not yet fully understand.” —NYT So who, here, can state, with certainty, that children are not vulnerable & will not die, as well? Let’s make them guinea pigs as Mayor Carolyn Goodman was willing to do with workers in Las Vegas–she “offered” them up as a “controlled experiment–you, know, like w/a placebo, a control group.” (Yet she, herself, hasn’t visited a casino in years, & would not now.)
Yeah, let’s wait & see what happens in GA after not-legally-elected guv-who-didn’t even-know-people -could-be-asymptomatic re-opened his state (not long after closing it, after almost every other state): you can see on the news: people who are “enjoying” their “freedom”–many not wearing masks, restauranteurs not wear masks, no gloves (& I’m not talking about CNN & MSNBC {for sure you wouldn’t see Kemp’s most dangerous game on Fox}–I’m talking Democracy Now!, the most honest news outlet & in-depth reporting available; & if you don’t already watch it, I strongly suggest you do: all can be found at democracynow.org if your local PBS station doesn’t carry it). These stories are also on BBC News, BBC America.
So is this a one size fits all, schools in the fall have to act in unison across the US?
Or could there be some nuance to this?
There is a benefit to closing schools in fall, but there is also a huge cost to that. The cost to the lives of 50 million children for missing on site schooling for a few months is huge. The cost to closing schools in fall also may be the destruction of public education as we know it. I sure hope the benefit outweighs the cost. Since there is no scientific way to measure the costs and benefits, I hope the fervent and religious decisions being made are correct.