The Education Research Alliance at Tulane University has accomplished a spectacular feat with its latest report about the “academic progress” (or lack thereof) of the all-charter district in New Orleans. The report claims that the disruption strategy of school takeovers and closures is responsible for the academic improvements in the district, but at the same time admits “The average school improved from the first to the second year after it opened, but school performance remained mostly flat afterwards. Schools starting off above the state average saw slightly declining performance in later years.” Furthermore, “quality peaked around 2013 and has either stagnated or started to decline during 2014-2016.”

So, here is the New Orleans model: Close almost all public schools. Replace them with private charters. Fire all the teachers. Replace most of the teachers with inexperienced, ill-trained TFA recruits. Close low-performing charters and replace them with other charters. Keep disrupting and churning. In the first two years, scores will go up, then stall. By year eight, “quality” will stagnate or decline. The schools will be highly stratified and racially segregated. The few high-performing schools will have selective admissions.

Here is the report, released this morning.

This report should be read in tandem with the latest state scores, which shows the all-charter district lagging far below state average scores, actually declining. Most charter schools in New Orleans, as detailed in this link prepared by a pro-charter organization, are very low-performing. The high-scoring schools have selective admissions.

New Orleans is one of the lowest performing districts in one of the lowest-performing states.It is a model of how privatization increases stratification and segregation. It should not be copied elsewhere.

But the report claims the success of the venture in school closings and privatization! Remember that the Education Research Alliance won a $10 million grant from Betsy DeVos after its report last year claiming the success of the privatization experiment.

Here is the press release for today’s report:

Study shows average public school quality has increased in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina as a result of school closures, takeovers, and charter openings

New Orleans – The quality of New Orleans’ public schools improved considerably after Hurricane Katrina as a result of performance-based closures and takeovers, as well as charter openings, according to a new study from Education Research Alliance for New Orleans (ERA-New Orleans) at Tulane University. The study also found that variation in school quality has decreased, which means fewer students are in very low-performing schools.

Now an all-charter district, New Orleans public schools have returned to the control of the local school board. The city’s education leaders face challenging decisions about the district’s role in in school improvement, especially when and how the district should help support low-performing schools or take over these schools. This study provides insight into how these decisions can affect school quality.

“There are two main paths to improving the city’s schools: improving the ones we have or replacing them,” said ERA-New Orleans Director and lead author Douglas Harris. “Our findings suggest that we’ve been more successful with closing and taking over low-performing schools.”

The study’s authors analyzed data from 2002-2016 and found that the average New Orleans public school improved from the first to the second year after opening, but school performance remained mostly flat after the second year.

The study also examined factors beyond academic achievement to better understand how the city’s schools have evolved.

“The number of extracurricular activities that schools say they offer has increased over time,” co-author and ERA-New Orleans research analyst Alica Gerry said. “Also, there may have been a slight upward trend in the variety of school options in the city after the reforms, though this could just reflect school marketing rather than actual program offerings.”

“Students now have access to a wider range of higher quality schools than they did before, even in the first few years of reform,” Harris said. “School closures and takeovers should be a last resort, but they also show some promise when schools are consistently low-performing.”

The study’s authors are Douglas Harris (Tulane University), Lihan Liu (Tulane University), Alica Gerry (Tulane University), and Paula Arce-Trigatti (Rice University).

The novice journalist is likely to read the claims made about New Orleans—that outcomes improved because of charters and closing schools with low scores—and assume that this strategy of disruption is the key to good results. But unless they read the report closely, they may not notice that gains ended after the first or second year of an experiment now in its 15th year.

Expect more headlines about the New Orleans “miracle,” about the stagnation of market-based reforms in a city where most schools “perform” far below state averages.