Recently the website Five Thirty Eight published a post declaring that VAM works. Only economists who never set foot in a school since their own high school days could reach this conclusion.
This reader disagrees with the economists:
This was my comment, as a lowly parent & taxpayer, at the 538 article comment thread:
As a taxpayer and parent I’d like to know what this article has to do with economics. I can find nothing in the article, nor in the comments thread, which speaks to (much less ‘proves’) that VAM shows any results which save the taxpayer money. As a member of a community I am well aware of the time our teachers have been spending for the last two years on the voluminous paperwork required to implement VAM. Although they seem to be doing it without extra pay, this is worrisome. These people already spend too many hours on a medium-salary job, and with the extra stress, that will push more of them out of a difficult profession.
What’s worse at least in my area (NJ), VAM seems to be a 2-pronged affair:
there’s the SLO/ Danielson or Marzano business that has them adding short autumn and EOY assessments in every subject to measure progress — which sounds like debunked & easily-gamed MBO junk I had to do in the ’80’s private sector–
and then we have the students’ PARCC scores which will soon become a weighted part of the teachers’ annual evaluation.
The SLO business adds a couple of hrs’ testing in every subject (so 10 hrs of class time per year)– minimal yet to my mind from experience a waste of time.
The latter– PARCC CCSS-aligned tests, taken on computer, disrupted the schedule horribly this year. Just to administer them required weeks during March & May to shuffle students by group in & out of gym/ library/ computer lab, where available laptops were corralled. That meant those areas were lost to normal physed, library research projects, curriculum-associated computer-lab work, for 3 – 4 wks of the 12-wk spring semester.
Much class time was spent teaching primary students how to keyboard, drag-&-drop, scroll, not hit buttons that would freeze the screen. And much more class time was spent drillimg kids on the PARCC Q&A format.
Although the PARCC tests are administered solely to collect data on school & teacher performance (meaning by the way older students recognize they have no ‘skin in the game’)– because they are or soon will be hi-stakes for school & staff, much time & attention is paid.
Did I mention my district has long been one of the highest-performing in the state? Here in NJ rich districts like ours send a large chunk of our RE taxes to poor districts; we pay 96% of the school budget ourselves. And now we must sacrifice many weeks of our precious, highly-paid-for curriculum-learning time to… VAM???
OK now I’m mad. I can read right on this board that there’s absolutely no proof that any of this supposedly economically-driven activity has anything to do with lowering my property taxes. In fact, what I can glean by reading the national news, its primary effect to date has been to drive veteran teachers into early retirement, to be replaced by substitutes, TFAs, & newbies (which is what I see is happening in Newark, where much of my RE taxes go, which is why mine are cripplingly high; as far as I can determine costs are higher than ever in fact Zuckerberg’s $100million went to consultants and state administrators).

This is generally outside the parameters of VAM, and yet it seems show evidence of making successful citizens:
Research says this is what you need to teach your kids in kindergarten if you ever want them to go to college or get a job
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You nailed it with your first comment. I find several people who support testing and the new reforms have never set foot in a public school classroom in 20 plus years. It is amazing how much they don’t know but yet think they know. Amazing.
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Your observations are totally correct.
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Only economists who never set foot in
a schoolreality since their own high school days could reach this conclusion. .Fixed.
“On Permanent Vacation from Reality”
Reality’s a place
Economists never visit
Or even ever face
They never even miss it
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wdf1. 700 children four locations, no information on SES, when they were tested– early or late in kindergarten. Sound to me like the researchers have confirmed that middle class social skills, playing by the rules, pays off. This is not earth shaking and the N is small.
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Valid points. A link in the original article begin to answer some of the points you raise.
source
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source
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Let’s suppose an overwhelming majority of teachers feel they have a calling to some degree, and given supportive conditions would naturally grow say 5 to10% better on average ( though it’s not really quantifiable and all that, but stay with me here). And that 5 or 10 percent would then get compounded by the growth of all teachers and students year to year within a school.
Contrast that with VAMming out 5%, of which 2.5% are actually excellent teachers (perhaps most of that 5% are), and experiencing a huge decline in morale among both students and staff and a crossover to automated teaching in which everyone is just going through all sorts of motions to try to survive in an insane environment.
This is a huge humanistic and monetary loss to all of the classrooms in all of the schools – virtually all public schools -affected.
The true key is school leadership and support, then community and parental support. That’s it.
Just because that isn’t always easy to do, you don’t stoop to mass destruction, unless that is in fact what you’re really after.
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“Let’s Play Risk”
The risk to schools of VAM
Is that it is a sham
And any potential savings
Are dwarfed by misbehavings
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“Self Love”
Economists who love VAM
Are prone to mathturbation
It’s “VAM bam thank you sham”
And real self-flagellation
Mathturbation
(n.) The act of deriving equations just for the sake of deriving them, at no apparent gain
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Try not to write VAM and math on the same line. The universe may be at risk!
Truly, honestly VAM is to real statistical analysis or the queen of the sciences, mathematics, as untreated manure is to gourmet food. I mean, sums of products of wildly inaccurate variables — are you kidding me? Look at it. Look at that formula. It is a pile.
http://web.alternet.org/education/can-good-teaching-be-measured-formula
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And you can get correlations from total randomness. That’s what the normal curve is all about. That’s where it comes from in fact. The law of averages, things tend toward a center; outliers are relatively rare usually because they depend on multiple less than likely factors.
So, you really have to look extremely carefully at how studies are done, funded and analyzed when things are getting dumbed down or bastardized into near randomness. (Obama is such a disappointment. And Chetty rhymes with so little.)
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that’s what mathturbation is
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But Chetty does have one thing going for him:
Chetty picking
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And Chetty Chetty VAM VAM
The flying heap of dung
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At 538 they weight polls by historical track record, sample size and date.
Weight VAM by its accuracy. Maybe 0.0006% of an evaluation would be safe.
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Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, is a graduate of the University of Chicago. He described himself politically as between a libertarian and a liberal, which I interpret to mean a neoliberal. The distance between the two is very short. Profiteers get rich either path and the public loses.
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Years ago when working at consulting companies as a geologist, my fellow geologists and I became aware of a big difference between us and the civil/geotechnical/environmental engineers we often collaborated with.
Geology is a messy science in that there are a lot more “gray” areas in our understanding of the Earth than say physics There is more ambiguity in explanations, observations, etc., and most geologists are OK with that, content in that ambiguity. Two geologists could look at an area and offer different explanations for the origin of the features there, and parts of both explanations could be right. Geology has far less quantitative analysis than other sciences.
The engineers were very uncomfortable with that ambiguity. They saw the world as a world that can be quantified, as long as you have the correct data and formulae to analyze it. They loved that math, and the right or wrong answers that the math ended up with.
To my point…economists put their faith in their formulas and in their data, and less on the real-world observations that the rest of us see. It is a utopian world of predictable cause and effect.
Now most people know instinctively that that just ain’t the case. But if that is your world view, then you WILL put your faith in the numbers rather than the people, much like the engineers did. People are unpredictable, behaviors are ambiguous, but DATA…DATA is dependable and cannot be questioned.
It’s no wonder the economists decided to dip their line into the education pond with the 15 year focus on data-driven reform. It was a data set they just couldn’t couldn’t resist. Plus, coming after their “stellar” performance in predicting the economic breakdown
I feel sorry for them in a way. It seems to me they are, in a very real way disconnected from the natural world. Why we as a society put so much faith in them is bewildering. I want the math used to design that airliner to be correct, sure, but using it to predict in kindergarten if a child will be college and career ready 15 years in the future…ehhhh, not so much.
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I’ve been watching liberal economics bloggers (Krugman, DeLong, etc.) for any sign of vocal dissent against VAM, as applied to education.
None. No vocal dissent.
The reason may just be that these guys prefer to talk about other things. But because economists’ opinions are so powerful, their silence gives a open shot to VAM advocates.
Without the backing of a big shot economist’s authority, critics of VAM don’t register on a science journalist like Flowers. Flowers is just trying to show off how he understands random sampling. He doesn’t ask whether research on the effects of teacher and school quality really answers the questions it attempts to answer. (It doesn’t.)
The basic fact remains that ranking of teachers and schools, when based on VAM, fluctuates wildly year-to-year.
Mathematician Cathy O’Neill has the skill to explain in the simplest terms how VAM is just a coin flip at best. http://mathbabe.org/2015/04/03/how-many-nyc-are-arbitrarily-punished-by-the-vam-about-578-per-year/
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Mathbabe is indeed excellent. She saw through the VAMscam long ago.
Like you, I find the silence of people like Krugman (who is definitely smart enough to understand what a crock VAM is) — “The Silence of the VAMs”, as it were — curious.
IMHO, their silence makes these people complicit.
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And check out this earlier post at the same covering the many ways that VAM is hugely flawed if not arbitrary.
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Same site
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I’m sure those bloggers have plenty on their plates, but I wonder if they can be asked for their position with the incentive that their voice could actually improve the economy by helping knock out a practice that would certainly harm it. Otherwise, as Poet notes, they are not really doing their part.
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One option is a letter signed by university faculty, from across the country. Their employing institutions receive federal and/or state funds, which obliges academia to expose flawed assumptions that influence political policy.
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This article was beautifully written! All of this is why I am counting the days to my retirement. I love my students, and I love to teach. The day to day stress I encounter due to these toxic, silly policies are no longer fair to my family and me. My two children and my husband have to put up with a tired woman who barely has enough energy for them. No more! I am beginning to finally walk, eat right, and take care of myself. Teaching is the only profession which “looks down” on educators with over 15 years of experience, as if they are incompetent and need fired. Sadly, this toxic attitude has taken its toll and will continue to take its toll. Awesome article! Thank you! 😊😊😊😊😊
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I’m honored you featured this, Diane! I usually consider my habit of ranting away at smart writers saying stupid things (here, at 538) a vice. But if it brought a smile to the face of one sad teacher (5 smileys!) it must be a virtue.
Although I teach, it is my avocation; I have never had to deal with the outrages most on this board encounter on a daily basis. As a young woman I taught all five levels of French at a private school– only lasted two years, even though I had good mentoring, academic freedom, and precious little bureaucracy. I was too proud to be enervated by work that paid no more than a secretary’s salary.
Both professions were denigrated even then, but the latter provided a career path into business work respected by men. It took over a decade to wise me up: I was a well-paid cog, working weekends to keep up with the same sort of ludicrous ‘accountability’ millstone that now threatens to drown this laudable profession.
Having designed my own private-preK enrichment work since then, I skim the cream off the best that ed work has to offer while my husband provides. This board has provided answers to the puzzle-pieces of my kids’ public education. and here I glean the warped rationale that lies behind the otherwise-incomprehensible details I hear from many public-school teacher friends.
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Reblogged this on David R. Taylor-Thoughts on Texas Education.
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