Timothy Snyder is a political scientist at Yale who has written incisive books about fascism. In this essay, he describes a scenario that will bring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to an end.
He does not believe that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He believes that the humiliating retreat of Russian soldiers on the battlefield will produce power struggles in Russia. The mercenaries that Putin has relied on from Chechnya and the Wagner Group (a neo-fascist militia) are unlikely to put their best troops at risk when the Russian military is retreating. The consequences will not be favorable for Putin.
Diane Ravitch's blog 
Putin is like Covid. The only thing certain about him is his uncertainty. Believing he won’t use nuclear weapons is folly.
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The policy of MAD is based on the idea that one’s adversary will behave rationally, or at least rationally enough not to commit suicide.
It’s also the Achilles Heel of the policy, acknowledged by the acronym.
It seems to me that assuming Putin’s ultimate rationality would be a bit of an overreach when it comes to the fate of the world. Just a bit.
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Coronavirus showed us it is smart. Putin shows us he isn’t.
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Timothy Snyder is extremely knowledgeable. I highly recommend his online course, available for free on YouTube, on the history of Ukraine.
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