The two great forces shaping the future at this time are globalization and technology.
Globalization has its benefits: We are more aware than ever of our interconnectedness with other people, nations, and cultures. But it has its downside: corporations outsource jobs to places where people work for less and there are no unions There is a story that President Obama once asked Steve Jobs what it would take to bring Apple production back to the U.S., and Jobs replied, “Those jobs are never coming back.” Why should they? It is cheaper to produce the devices in China.
Technology also has its good and bad sides. It has put us in instant touch with everyone else, it has created new jobs, it has made possible new ways of living and working.
The downside is that technology kills jobs by replacing humans with machines. Not long ago, I had dinner with a retired executive of Kraft. One of his jobs was supervising candy factories. He told me About factories that once employed 1,000 people but are now run by only two people.
A recent series of articles in USA Today includes one about the robots that will increasingly replace workers in low-skill jobs.
“”These ‘safe havens’ for low-skill workers may not be there in the decades to come,” says Carl Benedikt Frey, one of the authors of The Future of Employment, a 2013 University of Oxford study estimating the scope of automation. “A lot of low-skill workers will need to acquire creative and social skills to stay competitive in the labor market in the future.”
“Low-skill workers, experts say, need to look past any short-term job growth.
“We’re moving the unskilled jobs into skilled jobs. And that is going to be a challenge for us going forward,” says Henrik Christensen, director of the Institute for Robotics and Intelligent Machines at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “If you are unskilled labor today, you’d better start thinking about getting an education.”
“USA TODAY’s analysis suggests some metro areas will gain more low-skill jobs in the next two years than others. Tourist destinations, for example, are expected to gain jobs such as food service workers, retail salespeople, housekeepers and taxi drivers by 2017. Las Vegas is expected to add nearly 900 gaming dealers, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., needs nearly 500 landscapers.
“Health care jobs are growing nearly everywhere, and some construction jobs are showing high demand in certain metro areas.
“Half of all jobs — and 70% of low-skill jobs— may be replaced by robots or other technology in 10 to 20 years, according to Frey’s research.”
Think of it: if half of all jobs are automated, what will people do for work?
Then there is this article by David Brooks. Quoting from an article by Kevin Kelly in “Wired,” he describes a new world of artificial intelligence. It is a world where a very small number of corporations and people grow ever more powerful.
He writes:
“The Internet is already heralding a new era of centralization. As Astra Taylor points out in her book, “The People’s Platform,” in 2001, the top 10 websites accounted for 31 percent of all U.S. page views, but, by 2010, they accounted for 75 percent of them. Gigantic companies like Google swallow up smaller ones. The Internet has created a long tail, but almost all the revenue and power is among the small elite at the head.
“Advances in artificial intelligence will accelerate this centralizing trend. That’s because A.I. companies will be able to reap the rewards of network effects. The bigger their network and the more data they collect, the more effective and attractive they become.
“As Kelly puts it, “Once a company enters this virtuous cycle, it tends to grow so big, so fast, that it overwhelms any upstart competitors. As a result, our A.I. future is likely to be ruled by an oligarchy of two or three large, general-purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences.”
“To put it more menacingly, engineers at a few gigantic companies will have vast-though-hidden power to shape how data are collected and framed, to harvest huge amounts of information, to build the frameworks through which the rest of us make decisions and to steer our choices. If you think this power will be used for entirely benign ends, then you have not read enough history.”
I can’t see into the future but I don’t understand how our democracy can survive this aggregation of power in so few hands. Or how a society like ours can provide enough work if such a large part of the labor force is displaced by robots.
Maybe Bob Herbert is right in his book “Losing Our Way.” This might be the right time for a vast public works project to rebuild our nation’s infrastructure. Real jobs. High social value. A vision for the future. Unless, that is, the 1% forbid it.

Reblogged this on David R. Taylor-Thoughts on Texas Education.
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to anyone who cares to answer:
do people who have the mindset that we must make our schools more like South Korea or our future is doomed because there are no jobs here and won’t be under a cloud of fear or have they just read too much Joel Klein?
What would you tell someone who says they want their children to have an education more like South Korea so they can have a job someday?
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I would say that if we want creative people to overcome the problems of lack of jobs caused by technology and globalization, we need people who can think critically and creatively, and that’s not going to be generated by a South Korean style education. We need people who have learned to see the world differently and see new possibilities, not people who have swallowed whole loads of information that’s readily available anyway or “critical thinking skills” as promulgated by CCSS, which are in fact neither critical nor thinking. We need people who have learned to trust their own experience and who have spent their lives from childhood on solving problems and working together. People who have spent their lives learning to fill in the correct bubble on a standardized test won’t have much of anything to contribute.
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that’s my hunch too.
I am perplexed at what some very intelligent people buy into sometimes. Very perplexed. Because they are intelligent and I respect their knowledge in certain areas, I scratch my head when I hear them on the reform bandwagon and wonder if I’m the one with the errant notion.
But trusting my gut, I think what you have stated here is stating it best. Besides, I worked in a toxicology lab and the toxicologist told me that Asians are great workers, but do not know how to ask the questions that drive science.
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Yes, learning to ask good questions is far more important than learning to get the “right” answer.
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OK, I’m officially scared. I teach at a college in which we are dealing with incoming students who expect someone to take notes for them, read exams to them, and keep them organized. That’s what they’ve gotten in schools that cater to what parents want for their special ed students, and they expect the rest of the world to do the same for their babies. We need to rethink special ed, IEP’s , and how we are educating students to survive in the real world.
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Hmmm. Interesting point.
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My experience of 504s and IEPs is that they give students who don’t fit the cookie-cutter mold a chance to survive in a system that is not designed to serve their needs. I have students who are perfectly capable of doing lots and lots of really productive and valuable things and who are perfectly capable of real growth who are forced by the system into academic tracks for which they are entirely unsuited.
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And yes, it is doubtless the case that these sometimes create expectations on the part of students that will not be met by colleges. However, it’s a mistake to paint with too broad a brush. I can point to many examples of such plans that incorporate mechanisms for building self-reliance, in which such mechanisms are specified.
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Agree on the broad brush. Mechanism is not up to your usual style, Not the word police, just a bit surprised.
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agreed. Posted too quickly
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I was just in one of these meetings yesterday. Public schools are subject to a different law than colleges when it comes to educating students. Public schools HAVE to provide services for special ed students, by law. Colleges have to make sure that courses are accessible to all students, as required by the American Disabilities Act, but are not required to provide all the services that public schools do. (I hope I stated that correctly.)
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There are some colleges that do a much better job of providing services to their special ed students. West Virginia Wesleyan College in Buckhannon, WV has an excellent such program.
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I can vouch for this. 2 of my 3 boys graduating 2005 & 2010 needed this kind of assist under IEP’s. (Noting that they were in a super-achieving school system w/a particularly good ELA/writing program & robust SpEd program). Both pegged as performing below indicated IQ’s (1 due to slow-processing, 1 adhd).
Both, music techies, went on to smallish college music-tech majors where they excelled partly because others were average, partly due to high musical skills, but also did OK in non-ELA, A’s/B’s in ELA core courses– due to high-quality critical thinking/writing skills taught ground-up in their school system– & not in small part due to good org/study skills gradually learned thro excellent IEP program.
For these 2, whose musical abilities meant college a must [despite very average book/pencil abilities], well-implemented IEP’s allowed them to make the necessary jump.
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Believe it or not, there are students with intelligence yet have physiological barriers to learning. Postsecondary is unaccustomed to fully accommodating these students from years of sink-or-swim approaches to education. Before you embrace contempt for these students and parents, walk a mile in our shoes. Parents of special needs students sacrifice incredible amounts of time, money, and emotion into giving their child a decent chance at independence that parents of “normal” kids cannot even begin to comprehend.
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yes yes yes
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I so agree (see my earlier comment– these are music-techies). My IEP young men did not use the support available at college level. One w/very hi IQ despite book/pencil challenges understood he was smarter than average bear & would not signal difficulties by segregating self to SpEd support office [& in fact got good college grades but at great emotional cost]. The other found that his combination of absolutely average book/pencil skills & high musical talent– combined w/majority of colleagues being from lesser-demanding high schools– meant he could get a B average in college w/o using extended test time, note-taking assistance etc.
For me, bottom line was: these 2 kids when raised in rarefied atmosphere of highly competitive K-12 w/ high-IQ populace were singled out as– ‘something’s wrong!’– smart but not able to “do school”, hence IEP. This helped them make leap to ‘regular’, average colleges. Tho they were oddities in K-12 [unusually talented artsies yet ave-to-below-ave scholastically], found themselves above-average once in small-ish local colleges.
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Virginina.
I always find it interesting that in many states an IEP is reserved for students with a diagnosed learning disability. In my state, students who are identified as gifted are also given an IEP. I have had both kinds of IEPs in my household, and in many ways the K-12 system as better served the student with the learning disabilities than the student who was gifted.
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TE, I wonder if in my state (NJ) one might see more G&T 504’s in schools where most students are ave or below. No doubt state allows it as it’s fed law. In our local sch system as preponderance of kids were above ave scholastically (& system well-funded), there were G&T programs available from K up w/o need of 504, a couple of tiers of math in middle school to fast-track, & all kinds of AP et al challenging alts to core courses in hi sch. So SpEd was used as a way to provide good options for dev-disabled (& now autistic) and those w/signif gap between IQ & grades due to LD. We even have an alt hi sch prog for the ‘alienated’ (for lack of better word).
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Do you have any experience working with children that are learning disabled Sue? Perhaps you think that every child has at least average “ability” in most curriculum areas. Do you expect a child with an overall IQ of 76 to perform at the same level, academically, as a child with an IQ of 116?
With the emphasis on standardized testing, one would think that there would be some understanding regarding the original standardized tests that were designed to diagnose brain function; visual or auditory processing, speech and/or language delays, short term memory deficit, autism spectrum, etc, etc.
Perhaps not all children need to go to a traditional college. Perhaps there needs to be a variety of ways that young adults can access further study or training after high school.
How will society address the fact that there will be young adults that will not be able to function at a higher intellectual level. Does that mean that there will be nothing of value that they can contribute to their community? How will they make their way?
How does capitalism work along side democracywhen workers are displaced by technology?
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/saskia-sassen/charts-excluded-from-economy_b_6109496.html
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http://www.epi.org/publication/ib330-productivity-vs-compensation/
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Obama with Congress is working on the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement which has been described as NAFTA on steroids. With the president just making a deal to offer Chinese citizens ten year work visas, they will cheapen the salaries of the tech, workers here. It will also give corporations Monsanto control over food production and pharmaceuticals while it takes away the right of consumers to sue and seek retribution for their mistakes.http://www.aflcio.org/Issues/Trade/Trans-Pacific-Partnership-Free-Trade-Agreement-TPP
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If Congress & the administration are so concerned about US jobs they would be revising our terrible trade policies (e.g. NAFTA and CAFTA) and NOT pushing fast tracking the secret TPP. http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/05/tpp-another-upward-transfer-wealth.html
Germany’s economy is booming and they have tight control over imports, exports, outsourcing, and strong unions. Their public sector, including public education and health care, has not been hollowed out by outsourcing and private contractors. Thankfully, they are turnign sour on the TPP:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/07/germany-bucking-toxic-nation-state-eroding-transatlantic-trade-investment-partnership.html
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Not to mention employees here on visas do not have to pay into Obama care.
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Soylent Green is People!
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“Employment” will not disappear. It will mutate.
In the face of an ever-self-serving One Percent, both the “black market” and criminal enterprises will grow and thrive.
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I agree. People do find a way.
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Yes, new “industries” will expand, Mercedes is right. For example, the insatiable appetite for celebrities and gossip is a burgeoning machine; the takeover of broadcast/cable by pro sports will spin off more low-wage jobs in peanut-sellers, hot-dog rollers, and security staff/parking attendants, as well as more professional jobs for lobbyists who force local govts. to finance sports palaces for local teams. There’s another world possible–and it relates to construction of the public sector–every low-income area needs a new public park and playground as well as a local family health clinic and preK-daycare center. All urban areas need mass transit upgrades to eliminate need for cars. I could go on, but you get it, the only agenda for the future is being written by Wall Street and its agents in the Dems/GOP/mass media. Part of our task as progressive advocates is to put forward plans for building a society friendly to people from the bottom up.
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I’ve written about this before and I have also talked about this issue in several Blog posts on my blogs—What happens to the 1% when there are no more consumers?
And, what are the 1% going to do with the other 99% if they don’t care if their corporations run out of consumers?
One thought is that the 1% will implement a program simlar to the one that Hitler started leading up to World War II. The 1% will purify the human race of billions leaving just enough people to serve the 70-million who make up the global 1%. Those who are allowed to live and who are not a member of the 1% will be the skilled people machines can’t replace.
Since most of the wealthiest 1% are white men, it’s arguable that one sector of skilled people that machines can’t ever replace will be beautiful women who look like Victoria Secret Models, and it won’t matter if they are literate and educated because they will end up being toys for the global oligarchs.
Think about it.
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Reblogged this on Lloyd Lofthouse.
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When you have a society that is primarily founded on immoral principles then everything that stems from that society including the economic structure will also be corrupted. I’m sorry but if our kids are growing up idolizing athletes and actors whom produce absolutely nothing productively tangible that benefits our society then how can we expect them to respect and value a teacher or a nurse just to give an example? When you have absolute losers like the cast members of The Jersey Shore making over 200 grand per episode for a worthless piece of trash show what message does that send to our children in regards to education and values? We have abandoned our moral principles as a Country and now we are seeing the effects of this within all fabrics of our society and culture. We have abandoned God who cannot even be mentioned by name in a school but hypocritically as a former educator I had to sit in a three hour training about accepting and catering to transgender and LGBT students who I’m to allow to use whatever restroom they desire regarding gender. This is blasphemy and yet no one takes a stand. We sit by while our elected leaders cut programs for our seniors who built this Country from the ground up and then we act shocked when the very same crooks gut our pensions. We take discipline out of schools and then wonder why the children are misbehaving. Our Country and culture is ass backwards in many aspects and until we address these issues nothing will ever change. It’s amazing to think that so many people have a contempt for teachers due to the demonization of the profession while they comfortably sit back on Saturday night perked up in front of their televisions showing incredible admiration for the likes of a Kim Kardashian.
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The difficulty is which God?
There are so many, and if you pick the wrong one the consequences can be significant.
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To equate slavish devotion of all things Kardashian to training people about LGBT issues and the real discrimination transgendered people experience is the real blasphemy. You were out of line there.
You made some good points about the coarsening of our culture, largely brought about by the corporatization of our nation and the malign influence of those corporations on our government and other institutions.
We teachers can provide some bulwark against that coarsening, as long as we are allowed to run our classrooms as we have for decades, installing character, integrity, and values by modeling them for our students.
Sadly the forces that have poisoned much of our culture are moving in on the institutions that fight against that rot. Thus our profession and the very idea of public education is now under attack.
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I don’t disagree with you, but you might be surprised what most mature adults seem to think when it comes to “rating the honesty and ethical standards of people in difference fields.”
Here’ the top three:
1st place – 82% who responded to this Gallup poll said Nurses.
Grade school teachers and pharmacists were tied for 2nd place at 70%.
Now for the bottom two:
Only 8% said members of Congress
6% said Lobbyists—I wonder if there are that may lobbyists in the U.S. and they voted for themselves. :o)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/honesty-ethics-professions.aspx
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I am not out of line I cannot talk about God in a school but I have to have LGBT forced upon me in a training. Something which goes against my religious beliefs. We can spin this a million ways but you can’t have it both ways. If God is not allowed as a topic in schools then there should not be a LGBT club allowed to meet on school grounds period either that was my point. Discrimination exists at all levels for all races and genders. Ever heard of black people meet dot com. Now let me try to create white people meet dot com and see what the responses and backlash will be like. Just the other day Rihanna said in an interview that the best thing about the President is that he’s black. Spin that the other way and now it’s racist. People need to stop falling for the medias schemes of trying to divide and incite conflict between races genders and individuals of varying sexual orientations in the end we are all human beings with our separate characteristics. But then again you know what they say divide and then conquer.
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The Real One,
Who said we can’t discuss God in a classroom? The Bible is allowed to be taught as literature, and since God is in the Bible, children, in theory, could read the Bible and then describe God’s character in relation to the conflicts and themes that stream through the bible like the flood.
In fact, I know a teacher who taught the Bible as literature in California for half of the 50 years he was a teacher.
“the Bible as Literature is being taught in approximately 345 different school districts in 43 states”
http://bibleasliterature.org/bible-in-the-schools.php
Of course, if the CCSS doesn’t have questions that relate to the Bible, that will probably be the end of that. A friend who is still teaching in a public California high school told me today that every lesson they now teach is scripted and teachers aren’t allowed to use their own lessons without some sort of committee approval. He said the scripted lessons were of a poor quality and he couldn’t stand them.
It’s not a stretch to see that CCSS might lead to censorship by not asking questions of any book the authors didn’t want students to be exposed to — like the Bible.
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Welcome to the Big Tent of anti ed-reform!
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FLERP!,
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Ravitch finds this post by The Real One personally insulting. I would if I were her.
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I do hope you’ve seen the South Park treatment of transgender rest rooms…
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Leave the ‘abandonment of god’ out of the equation and I agree with most of what you are saying. I know plenty of people who lead strong moral and ethical lives but do not subscribe to the god of any religion. I also know many people who think of themselves as good christians who are selfish, ignorant and self serving. Morality does not spring from ones belief in a god.
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Well the real joke here is already being played. A college education doesn’t guarantee anyone a job, when there are few jobs to be had. Almost every employer is running leaner, and having the lower employees do more for less, or has switched to part-time, no benefits, employees. Amazing;While CEOs and Equity Partners get wealthier, everyone else worries when they will get fired, and even while they are working, how will they continue to afford even the basics, like an apartment, food, and bus fare.
How many kids have graduated college, are a ton in debt, still live at home, and can’t find meaningful employment in their fields? Plenty. I and my friends are living this right now. I and my husband wait for our pink slips. My kid lives at home and it took 3 years to find a teaching job that she is always in peril of losing. Her friends live at home with looming debt as well. Many of them work two minimum wage jobs in reception, or bartending, or customer service.
Welcome to the future; it is already here.
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Donna,
For every job in the U.S. that requires a college degree, there are almost three college graduates. The same job challenges for college graduates are happening in all but one of the to five countries with the most college graduates.
>>>53.5% of Russian’s population have earned a four year or better college degree and many are unemployed or underemployed. Some, after graduating, go without jobs for months and even years.
Young, educated and unemployed in Russia
http://www.dw.de/young-educated-and-unemployed-in-russia/a-16635170
>>>51.3% for Canada
Why are so many of Canada’s young people out of work?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/why-are-so-many-of-canada-s-young-people-out-of-work-1.1370260
>>>46.4% for Japan
In Japan, the situation may be easing, although only slightly, after years of rising graduate unemployment.
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20140213153927383
>>>46.4% for Israel (The exception due to a high tech industry)
>>>42.5% for the U.S.
48% of working college graduates are underemployed. This chart will get worse over the next decade.
http://www.businessinsider.com/rise-of-college-student-underemployment-2013-8
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What’s insulting about my post? Do we not live in a Country where one is allowed to express their opinions? I mean the other day someone here got offended because I compared Rick Scott and Charlie Crist to a turd. With attitudes like this guess what, you will live your life always being offended by something. We live in a society that is so PC that we have been systematically conditioned as to what is and what is not appropriate. I’m sorry but I don’t see anything in my post that is offensive. The only thing offensive are your moronic posts that attempt to justify the indefensible such as outsourcing crony capitalism and the Walmart business model.
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The Real One,
You may not be aware that Dr. Ravitch is married to another women. She is a member of the LGBT community and may feel that your characterizing acceptance of people like her as “blasphemy” is personally insulting. While she is very comfortable with posters insulting each other on the blog, she does not allow posters to insult her.
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Not only No Child Left Behind, everyone will be left out.
The Race to the Top will be won by the very few who learn to control the machines who will control the people.
Cliche as they sound in response to this blog:
METROPOLIS, BRAVE NEW WORLD, 1984 (The Apple irony is scary!), SOYLENT GREEN, A.I., IRobot, so we’ve been warned and we don’t seem to care because as we all know “…it can’t happen here.” (Thank you Frank Zappa.)
Education, not 30-second sound bytes or explaining how you got the wrong answer!
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Congress needs to enact a new law called No Human Left Behind that guarantees a decent income provided you’re willing to work. If the market doesn’t provide the work, the government should.
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“If the market doesn’t provide the work, the government should.”
That’s what FDR did with The New Deal during The Great Depression (1929 – 1940).
“The largest relief program of all was the WORKS PROGRESS ADMINISTRATION. When the CWA expired, Roosevelt appointed Hopkins to head the WPA, which employed nearly 9 million Americans before its expiration.”
Critics called the WPA “We Piddle Around” or “We Poke Along,” labeling it the worst waste of taxpayer money in American history. But most every county in America received some service by the newly employed, and although the average monthly salary was barely above subsistence level, millions of Americans earned desperately needed cash, skills, and self-respect.
http://www.ushistory.org/us/49b.asp
And, that’s what China did during The Great Recession of 2007-08. I read that 20 million factory workers in China lost their jobs due to a decrease in exports, and the government either retired older workers early—China has a system similar to Social Security with a mandatory retirement age of 65—or hired them in government owned industries and/or to work on infrastructure projects building new cities, new roads, new airports, new power plants, new railroads, etc.
The GOP will never do anything like this. They will let the private sector economy fix itself and if it doesn’t, people can just lose their homes, become homeless and/or starve to death. In fact, thanks to GOP President Hoover’s business as usual Republican policies, by 1932, millions of Americans were living outside the normal mortgage or rent-paying housing market—many in slums called Hoovervilles, and millions of Americans may have starved to death, while GOP president Hoover fiddled.
http://depts.washington.edu/depress/hooverville.shtml
http://www.infowars.com/researcher-famine-killed-7-million-in-us-during-great-depression/
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Lloyd read this. It happened in my District and the District did not budge until the realized the magnitude of the lawsuit they were going to have on their hands. This is simply ridiculous and mind you it happened during “free reading time” not during classroom instruction. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/05/05/FL-Teacher-Bans-Bible-He-s-Not-Permitted-to-Read-Those-Books
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One case in one county does not represent every school district in the country. A dozen cases in a dozen counties/school districts does not represent every school district in the country. Even a thousand school districts do not represent every school district in the country. Even what happens in one state does not represent what happens in the other 49.
For instance, Texas is a GOP stronghold but California is a Democratic stronghold, but both Texas and California have minorities that vote for the other side. If someone can’t stand the politics of Texas or California, all they have to do is move to the state that matches their thinking. In fact, that seems to be the trend these days—people moving to states and communities where there is a majority that matches what they think.
Public education in the US is supposed to be run by each state and each school district is supposed to be run by an elected school board that represents the local community’s values. If the majority of voters don’t like the policies of the reps on an elected school board, they have an opportunity at the next election to get rid of them.
If a parent wants the local public schools to offer classes that teach the Bible as Literature, that parent has the option to take it up with the local school board and if the school board says no because the majority of voters in that district don’t agree with that thinking, then I suggest the parent who wants God in the classroom moves to another state or district that matches their thinking.
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I am aware of it and it is her choice and I respect it. It is her life and I am no one to tell her how to live it. However, on the other hand there are people who get offended when someone talks about God because it may conflict with their own religious beliefs or lack thereof. All I am saying is that we should be able to express whatever our views are regarding religion and sexual orientation without having to go to war over it or feel like we are walking on egg shells. I have two very close friends who are gay and they know how I feel about the issue but it does not stop us from being close friends. In the end we just have a difference of opinions regarding our beliefs but our friendship is stronger than those varying views. This is my point I am in no way trying to offend anyone and I mean that sincerely. I would give the shirt off my back to help anyone regardless of race religion or sexual orientation and if I have offended anyone I sincerely apologize.
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Back when I was a kid, people used to talk a lot about how in the future, technology would enable us all to have four-day work weeks and lead to a great Renaissance of freedom among the masses to cultivate their abilities, realize their potential, and generally enjoy life.
That vast dislocations of workers are underway and that this will occur at an accelerating pace seem, both, reasonable extrapolations from the current state of affairs. However, I have read NO rational discussions of what this will actually mean. This is not familiar territory. It’s a complete game changer, and the old economic rules will not apply. I’m not sure that anyone understands what this will mean, though it’s clear enough that in the short term, it’s going to be really ugly.
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I’m reading about the push for the eight-hour workday. The language Gompers uses is interesting –he wants workers to have time for learning, cultivating the mind. Where do we hear this kind of language today? Who talks about the masses aspiring to refinement? Does this mean we’re “dumbing down” our ideal of what it means to be human?
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Yes, robots and other miachines can indeed take over some jobs. But, egads…they are expensive and in many situations a human touch is needed. We don’t know what the jobs of the future are. What I do know is that this country is being sold off to the highest bidder.
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you’re right.
It’s not the new-fashioned robots we should fear, but the old fashioned con artists who are quite literally trying to sell the earth that we live on.
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yup
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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/
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Here’s hoping that the robots of the future will have more dependable software than Microsoft or even Apple. Will we have to repeatedly restart the robot before it works properly? Will we have to wait and wait and wait for the robot to reboot, communicate, buffer, buffer and more buffering, then connecting? Whoops, it crashed. Then you can spend hours contacting tech support in India concerning your Dell robot. Or call the Geek Squad to reprogram your robot and get the glitches resolved.
Truth be known, humans in China, Vietnam, Mexico, Honduras or Sri Lanka, etc., are still cheaper than robots.
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A few years ago, my daughter was badly hurt by smoke inhalation during an apartment fire. She had a tracheotomy, and we were sent home with a machine for cleaning her breathing tube if it became clogged. On the side of the machine was a big notice with a 1-800 number to call in an emergency, if the machine malfunctioned. Well, one day the tube was clogged and the machine malfunctioned, and I called the number. I got an automated phone tree from some enormous corporation with many, many options, none related to the issue, and I listened to these as my daughter struggled to breathe. I finally gave up and worked assiduously to try to figure out the problem myself. Eventually, I did, just in time. She will tell you that that day she almost died. She is very healthy and almost fully recovered now, but no thanks to the displacement of workers by this corporation.
Many millions have been displaced by these “customer self-service portals,” as the technology consulting industry euphemistically calls them. Most supermarkets have now replaced most of their cashiers with machines. Most warehouses of any size have now replaced most of their stock pickers with machines. Most consumer goods are thrown away instead of mended. (When I was a kid, every city block had a tailor and a cobbler on it.) And we’re just at the beginning. The Motley Fool has been advertising for a year now based on a coming revolution in digital 3D printing that is supposed to automate all manufacturing.
What all this will mean, no one seems to know. But it seems pretty clear that soon there will be billions with no employment at the same time that wealth and income are being concentrated among those who control capital.
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Reblogged this on As the Adjunctiverse Turns.
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Great discussion. One of my biggest reservations about the current “grade and grind” (a phrase I’m stealing from Diane R.) school policy, is that all the stress is for kinds of employment that most likely will not exist for our children. To provide for themselves, our kids will probably have to rely more on social skills than academic skills, which leads me to still believe that making friends and learning to work in a group is the top reason to go to school. Since most of this valuable work is done at recess and play, there should be more recess and play, not less. Ironically, Duncan, Obama and all the titans know this and send there kids to expensive schools better suited for preparing people for post-industrial, post-outsourcing-everything-and-the-kitchen-sink-work.
One silver lining to the employment picture, is the return of small scale self employment, small farming, food trucks, and other crafty small enterpirses. This type of work is paradoxically growing along with the concentration of wealth. Or maybe it is not a paradox but a response to the shading of middle class professional jobs.
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As a patent attorney, I’ve been around technology industries for many years. First and foremost, don’t believe too much of the robotics and AI hype. Much of that can be ascribed to three factors: (1) too much ignorance and credulty—and fear- and hype-mongering—on the part of the press; (2) a desire by many in industry to create a story that supports their desires for reduced immigration limits, tax cuts, and school reforms; and (3) a desire by the 1% to blame all of our economic problems on “structural” factors, like the obsolesence of worker skills and education.
Having said that, we do have a lot to consider and work to.do. We are reaching a point where the economci value of work will reach a minimum. Thus, an economic system that favors the accumulation of capital will reward vast sums on those who own the most capital. And the value of capital ownership wilIn only increase. In short, working will increasingly become useless as a way to survive economically. This thesis was discussed quite a bit from the 1920s through the 1950s. One excellent book on this subject, and which offers a way out, is The Capitalist Manifesto by Louis Kelso and Mortimer J. Adler.
The real issue is cultural, as described so presciently by Jacques Ellul in his book The Technological Society. Ellul describes how the rise of science and technology have become a sociological driver that has brought society to a state where “optimization”, production, and consumption rule. Society will become ever more centrally controlled and draconian as a result of our reliance on the idea that adherence to strict protocols becomes a moral imperative. The only way out is to change society.
The other great book about this issue is R.H. Tawney’s . In the end, Tawney argues, we have to judge ourselves and others by what we do, not what we have.
Common core and its associated reforms are part-and-parcel with Ellul’s Technological Society. The best education, a liberal education, is what will lead to Tawney’s just world. We need to abandon the first and embrace the second.
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NIce to see you mention Ellul. His writing predicted much of what is happening now. I ordered a copy of the book not that long ago so I could go back and read it again.
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Oops! The last two paragraphs should have read:
The other great book about this issue is R.H. Tawney’s The Acquisitive Society. Tawney argues, we have to judge ourselves and others by what we do, not what we have.
Common core and its associated reforms are part-and-parcel with Ellul’s Technological Society. The best education, a liberal education, is what will lead to Tawney’s just world. We need to abandon the first and embrace the second.
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Thanks moosesnsquirrels.
The international gold standard for ecellence in education is what the elites want for their children and it is usually a balanced program in the arts, sciences, and humanities with at least one foreign language–an idea that the US embraced and announced as “valuable” by establishing the National Science Foundation (first) then the National Endowment for the Arts, and National Endowment for the Humanities. That was about fifty years ago.
We know that the marketers of the CCSS have sold these standards and all that is attached to them–including tests–as if to garantee students who are in Kindergarten now will have career paths starting in 2027 or so. People in high places bought the snake oil.
The US Department of Labor only makes job projections for a decade ahead and it updates these every three years wirth some tweaks in between. The latest job projections for 2012-2022 are summarized here.
The labor force is projected to grow 0.5 percent per year from 2012 to 2022, compared with an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent during the 2002-12 decade slower growth than the interval of time during which the CCSS were hatched and marketed.
Due to the aging baby-boom generation, workers ages 55 and older are expected to make up over one-quarter of the labor force in 2022.
The overall labor force participation rate is projected to decline from 63.7 percent in 2012 to 61.6 percent in 2022, continuing the trend from the past decade. Fewer people are working and/or finding work.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 2.6 percent annually from 2012 to 2022, slower than the 3 percent or higher rate often posted from the mid-1990s through mid-2000s. The tech and STEM boom that is supposed to produce growth is more hot air than reality.
Employment growth is projected to be greatest in service-providing industries. The health care and social assistance sector is projected to add 5.0 million jobs between 2012 and 2022— nearly one-third of the total projected increase in jobs.
Employment in the construction sector is next, projected to add 1.6 million new jobs over the 2012-22 decade, well below the peak level (7.7 million; 2006). Recall the housing bubble…burst, mortgage frauds, and so on. Economic collapse–not like the black swan–engineered by greedy people.
Five industry sectors are projected to have decreases in employment: manufacturing (-549,500); federal government (-407,500 (likely more if Republicans have their way); agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (-223,500); information (-65,200 not the information economy as some have claimed); and utilities (-56,400 ).
The largest projected employment increases from 2012 to 2022 are expected to come 22 of 30 occupational categories that typically DO NOT require post secondary education.
Replacement needs. More than two-thirds of jobs between 2012 and 2022 are projected to come from replacement needs (not economic growth). Economic growth looks bad as a source of new employment. Moreover, most of these “replacement” jobs (nearly two-thirds) typically DO NOT require postsecondary education for entry.
Even so, occupations typically requiring some form of postsecondary education for entry generally had higher median wages ($57,770) in 2012 and are projected to grow faster (14.0 percent) between 2012 and 2022 than occupations that typically require a high school diploma or less ($27,670 and 9.1 percent).
So, what this means, if you like proportions, is that occupations and industries related to healthcare are projected to add the most new jobs between 2012 and 2022.
Right now, here is where the action is. The most jobs available and median pay
Personal care aides 580,800 $19,910
Registered nurses 526,800 $65,470
Retail salespersons 434,700 $21,110
Home health aides 424,200 $20,820
Food prep//servers 421,900 $18,260
Nursing assistants 312,200 $24,420
Secretaries/admin 307,800 $32,410
Customer service 298,700 $30,580
Janitors (not maids) 280,000 $22,320
Construction labor 259,800 $29,990
General managers 244,100 $95,440
Laborers movers 241,900 $23,890
Carpenters 218,200 $39,940
Bookkeeping clerks 204,600 $35,170
Heavy truck drivers 192,600 $38,200
Medical secretaries 189,200 $31,350
Office clerks, 184,100 $27,470
Childcare workers 184,100 $19,510
Maids/house clean 183,400 $19,570
Nurses LPNs 182,900 $41,540
Meanwhile among the ten states with the lowest average pay for teachers in 2012-2013, the worst was South Dakota, but the states with the worst cuts in the last decade are North Carolina at 14.7%, about $7900 less than a decade ago; followed by Florida at 6.65 a loss of about $3240 dollars (constant dollars current).
If you want to “standardize” everything about education and are also enchanted with REDUCING GAPS.. here is a beauty.
The pay gap between the highest and lowest average teacher salary in 2012-13 was $35,591, Too bad I cannot bold face the numbers.
Nationally, teachers in 2012-2013 were making $750 less than a decade ago. These stats include the DC schools, Find more than you wanted to know ant the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
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The claim that globalization and technology will result in an inevitable lack of jobs, in advanced economies, leads to a wringing of hands, in despair. And, it is the latest sequential chapter in the oligarch-preferred narrative. The ubiquitous story, promulgated on AM talk radio, Fox, neoliberal editorials and in right-wing letters to the editor, substitutes for a call to action. The plutocrats are great at creating the apathy of hopelessness (the last election had the lowest turnout in 7 decades). We should reject the false narrative, in favor of actions like the following:
1.Corporations that sell in America, can be mandated to produce in America.
2. Progressive taxes that reduce concentration of wealth, can be enacted to increase middle class demand 3. Infrastructure-building jobs can be financed, with plutocratic dollars 4. Greater middle class retirement income can provide better pay, for the service workers, that assist older people (it’s estimated that 401k managers take 40% of the value of worker investments).
5. The personal service jobs that are characteristic of an advanced economy, can be professionalized, in terms of pay and credentials.( As teachers know, plutocrats rig the system for the opposite.)
6. Union jobs can be increased to assure workers receive more than the fatigue of productivity but, also the financial benefit 7. America can excise the financial sector, that drags down the economy.
Let’s take a page from the climate change denial book. The forecast for the climate, is bleak. Yet, the Koch’s ignore it. The plutocrats say the outlook for jobs is bleak. Let’s ignore the false prediction and maximize middle class benefits now, just like the Koch’s maximize profits now.
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Reblogged this on Things Fall Apart and commented:
Interesting thoughts.
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I think the concerns here are misplaced. There will be short run dislocations, but that is the only way we can change the economy and increase prosperity. How many of you want to run the technological clock backwards so that 50% of the population is back on the farm? In the long run either we will all have more time for what makes us human or still need to produce the necessities and conveniences of life.
Lets take this to the most extreme level: machines can do everything we now do (including making more machines) at zero costs. No human production can possibly compete with zero cost. If that happens there is no reason to limit anyone’s consumption so now we can truly give to each according to each according to their need.
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LOL- that is what the thinking was in the 1950’s. It did not happen. Our economy, pay and society have become worse not better since the 1950’s. In fact we are the first generation in American history that are doing worse economically than did prior generation and that includes the depression which did recover after an 8 year set back. It was a great recovery too.
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So I Am,
This deserves some careful thought. What measure would you use to decide that society has become worse off since, say, 1955? I will take a guess at some metrics and let you know about them here. Feel free to suggest others that we might use to compare the 1950s to current living standards.
The usual physical quality of life indicators argue against your thesis. Life expectancy at birth, for example, was about 66.7 years for men, 72.8 years for women, both about 7 years short of today’s figure. If your African American, the increase is, of course far more dramatic.
What of poverty? We didn’t actually calculate the poverty rate in the 1950’s, but the rate for 1959 was 18.5% of households living in poverty, 18.1% in 1960, 18.1% in 1961. In the latest three years the calculated poverty rate was 11.2%, 11.8%, and 11.8%. The more recent figure is likely to overstate the poverty rate because of income sources, like the earned income tax credit, are not counted in calculating the more recent figure. It would seem that now is better than the 1950s.
What about basic consumer goods like food, clothing and shelter? Perhaps we must spend more of our income on these goods. We can figure that out as well. In the 1950’s consumers spend about a third of their income on food, about 12% of their income on housing. Today the average household spends about 15% of their income on food, about 4% on clothing.
Spending on housing has gone up, but so has the size and quality of housing. In 1950, 35% of all homes in the United States lacked complete plumbing (Full plumbing is defined as hot and cold piped water, a bath-tub or shower, and a flush toilet) Of course this was just an average, some states like New York had relatively few housing units without full plumbing, only 14%. Other states, like Georgia, South Dakota, and Missouri had a majority of housing units without full plumbing. In Mississippi only 1 out of every 4 housing units had full plumbing. Anyone want to guess on the percentage of housing units lacking full plumbing today?
These are the good old days.
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“Our economy, pay and society have become worse not better since the 1950’s. In fact we are the first generation in American history that are doing worse economically than did prior generation”
Although the narrative is that in ‘the old days’ each generation could do better than the previous, in my experience that is only true for those whose forebears were immigrants– they started with nothing, nowhere to go but up.
My dad born in mid-’20’s Midwest might agree with you, but facts are his farm family ate fine off long-held land– even rented out subsistence plots to laid-off workers during Depression. He made his way to steel plant & navy before 20, & worked his way east into middle class thro skill & marrying into a bit of capital. But he worked sunup to sundown his whole life; it all was basically the middle class.
In my WASP experience, the only generation which raked it in were the great-grandparents who founded industries in the 1st qtr of the 20thc. Except for the Rockefellers et al, they lost it all or at least had to ‘go public’ after the crash, perhaps saving enough shares for their kids to do advanced degrees & become professionals; those could maybe do BA’s for their kids (or the GI bill did), & my boomer generation was already looking to the fed for college loans & no property left to inherit. Even in this privileged group, it’s been a long decline since the 1920’s.
But economy bubbled up post-war, hardly ‘in decline since the ’50’s’. They boomed until the first big stutter– 1974, the oil embargo; in retrospect, the upswings since then were all bubbles. Many folks continued despite all signs, one-upping their parents with bigger houses cars etc– until the inevitable bust.
The change is today, for the kids born in the ’80’s. It’s a change in security. The future is not assured, not even predictable. I see the phase we’re in as akin to the ’30’s, when the economy suddenly contracted. Those grandparents who owned their homes gathered kids & grandkids under their roofs & everyone chipped in to pay taxes & utilities, working whatever jobs they could find.
The one bright spot I see– am I nuts?– is all the 20-somethings I see around town, having enlarged their perspectives w/BA’s of their choice & now eking out a minimum-wage living– but living w/parents or stacking up w/peers in an apt– spending their spare time playing in bands, creating blogs, publishing e-books, taking free art courses. Well that’s the middle-class bubble I live in, things surely suck in the inner cities & rural outposts.
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Someone, please replace TE with an economics-teaching machine. There are much more productive uses to which he could be put in the technological utopia that he envisions.
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Sorry about that, TE, but, hey, ” There will be short run dislocations.”
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Bob,
Any thoughts about how much you benefit from having most of the farmers leave the farm? Should we move them all back?
There is such an incredible privileging of the status quo (or more precisely, the status quo of when posters were in their early 20’s) that it is breathtaking.
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It’s hard to keep them down on the farm once they have seen all those glorious opportunities to work as part-time Walmart janitors.
Though much of what is developing is new, and no one knows what this all will mean, one thing is certain. We have seen oligarchical societies in which an individual’s labor was of no significant most people’s labor was of no significant value, one’s in which human life was treated as correspondingly cheap–have a quick read of Huizinga’s The Waning of the Middle Ages. Not pretty.
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TE,
Read what the PEW has to say about farms in the United States and what is happening to them:
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-sheets/2012/07/18/how-corporate-control-squeezes-out-small-farms
Imagine all food production in the hands of a company like Monsanto.
Maybe capitalism isn’t all that great when it comes to producing food when someone like Monsanto destroys the little farmers by waging economic war against them.
2.2 million farms dot America’s rural landscape. About 97 percent of U.S. farms are operated by families – individuals, family partnerships or family corporations.
http://www.fb.org/index.php?fuseaction=newsroom.fastfacts
Farming has changed from the horse and plow days. Today it is big business that often requires a college education.
By 2007, the share of farm operators receiving a high school diploma (90 percent) exceeded the graduation rate for all U.S. households (87 percent)
Since 1983 the number of farmers who have received a college degree has increased over 50%
http://www.americasfarmers.com/2014/05/19/myth-busted-farmers-dont-get-college-degrees/
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Bob,
I was not describing my utopia, I was describing Dr. Ravitch’s nightmare.
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point well taken
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http://io9.com/post-scarcity-societies-that-still-have-scarcity-1640882232
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“….machines can do everything we now do (including making more machines) at zero costs.” Huh!!!! What about the energy needed to power these future machines, that’s not free. The raw materials needed to make these machines would not be free. All the insurances that have to be taken out on said machines is not free. The maintenance, upkeep and repair of the machines is not free. Are we talking about 2,000 years into the future? Even 50 years from now, humans will be very much needed. Who the hell knows about 2,000 years from now? So robots will be in charge of our nuclear arsenal? What could possibly go wrong?
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One would think that TE, of all people, should know that there’s no such thing as free.
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Dienne,
My story was based on Dr. Ravitch’s concerns for the future. I certainly believe that future will not happen.
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“machines can do everything we now do (including making more machines) at zero costs”
” Eternal Growth, Zero Cost and Zero Physics”
The laws of physics don’t apply
They simply don’t, so don’t ask why
The economic theory stands
All by its itself, in Neverland
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Joe,
I was taking Dr. Ravitch’s view of the future. I certainly agree that it will not happen.
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apologies.
In light of TE clarification, remove “Zero cost” from the poem title and the rest still stands
with one minor tweak: change eternal to infinite. More symmetrical Physicists worry about that kind of thing.
”Infinite Growth and Zero Physics”
The laws of physics don’t apply
They simply don’t, so don’t ask why
The economic theories stand
All by themselves, in Neverland
see Can Economic Growth Last?
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You are engaging in the logical fallacy of the False Choice.
Rejecting the control and benefits of technology going primarily to the 1%, or the 1/10th of 1%, does not automatically require us to return to a life of back-breaking farm labor, but it does mean re-orienting the power dynamics in society, so that not most of the benefits of technology flow upward.
Then again, as an orthodox economist, you are obliged to ignore power and political dynamics, aren’t you?
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Michael,
“Ignore politics”
And, a batch of well-connected economists are currently ignoring reality, as Krugman has pointed out. Unfulfilled inflation expectations, the austerity calamity, the financial sector drain on GDP, the threat of concentrated wealth to economic growth, the failure of commerce’ profits to improve products, instead diverted to political maneuverings, and the lack of increase in wages, predicted by productivity gains…to start the list of willful ignorance.
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Michael.
My post must not have been clear. The reference to our agricultural past was not meant as a prediction about the future but to point out that our current society is built on the transition of society from one made up of mostly rural farmers to one with very small numbers of rural farmers.
Politicians around the world have tried to slow down this transition. Governments have been unsuccessful in this effort. The economics of urbanization are too compelling for the political system to resist for long.
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Untrue: you most certainly did posit a “choice” between the degradation/elimination of human labor and going back to a life of farm work.
Additionally, you also falsely claim that governments are trying to maintain or restore family farms, when the entire model of globalized agriculture, as stated four decades ago by US Agriculture Secretary Earl Butz is, “Get big or get out.”
Tell Bill Gates and Monsanto that governments are trying to save small-scale, family farms and, in private and among themselves, they will burst out laughing.
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Michael,
Again, if that is what you understood from my post I expressed myself badly. I did not mean to suggest alternatives to the current economic structure.
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There are other such complete game changers afoot:
http://www.lef.org/magazine/2009/8/Turning-on-Immortality-The-Debate-Over-Telomerase-Activation/Page-01
Things are going to get very, very weird.
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This is such a grim outlook. It is like the glass-empty flipside of the glass-full rosy bygone predictions of the glorious era of leisure to come. Neither is rational. I agree with TE that we are in a temporary-dislocation phase (we’ve had many in the past). And I agree with Linda that the glass-empty prediction posted here is the preferred oligarch narrative, based on fear.
Even the current dire dislocations being caused by 1%-99% inequality give rise to niche industries created for those 1% consumers. Though the oligarchs presto-change bunches of us into fast-food drones with one hand, with the other they seek to consume the best the world has to offer in rarefied foods which can only be produced on tiny human co-op farms like boutique wine estates and farms with carefully-raised and nurtured goats and pigs. They pay 1k/head to eat locavore salads made with foraged wild mushrooms & greens, sushi with fish caught today etc. (art, couture, music–etc!)
Of course this is a tiny example and will only tide over a select few. The point is, those stacking up all the dough cannot survive in an airless gray world of robots while they leave increasing swaths of the country in festering poverty. Things will continue to change top-down (incentivized by the need to spend & enjoy life) and from the bottom up (incentivized by the need to make a living).
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More from the Future Fun department:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/12/u-s-military-successfully-tests-missile-that-picks-its-own-target-what-could-possibly-go-wrong/
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Bob, Your post reminds me that the issue of missile accuracy was being investigated in the late 60s, early 70s (TOW missiles) but got a big boost with Ronald Reagan’s proposed Star Wars program. That was to have been a computer controlled missile shield for the US, with the computer picking the targets and blasting the missles before they could hit us.
In an effort to stop this scheme in its tracks, individuals affiliated with Computers for Professional Responsibility put out a book in 1987 titled Computers in Battle, Will They Work? Pretty much demolished that plan ( along with other activities from this group), but it iremains a priority for the military to try to do battle with a minimum of “apparent” human intervention, currently rationalized as “saving lives.”
One of the illustrations in the book: A famous moonrise took place> It was watched by many lovers, and by a radar whose reflections were being analyzed by a computer program. “Aha” said the program, this is what I have been given to understand a missile attack looks like. I’ll just tell everybody about it! When the dust settled, everyone realized they needed more precise rules for the computer, There was a similar problem with a flight of geese. Paraphrase, pp.15-16.
A well-written book for a general audience, and still relevant.
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Given societies experience major restructuring, the problem isn’t technology or globalization, but rather the misuse of technology and the concentration of power in the hands of a few. A thriving middle class doesn’t just happen, it takes a collective effort and puposeful planning that “free market” libertarians fail to grasp. We can have a technologically advanced society that leads globally WITH 90% of Americans actually doing the work also share in the wealth they help create. Instead we have a rigged system perpetuated by “money is speech” governing and voters that decide based on sound bites and brand rather than substance and reality.
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“A thriving middle class doesn’t just happen, it takes a collective effort and puposeful planning that “free market” libertarians fail to grasp.” Thank you for that, MathVale. Free-market capitalism is a theory for those in government who prefer to doze at the wheel.
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Virginia,
What is the plan that will achieve a vibrant middle class? I think that is a very hard question to answer.
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Free-racket capitalism (which prevails in the US) is a theory for those in government who prefer to give the wheel to corporate CEOs.
“Free-racket Capitalism”
The rackets here are free
In America, you see
The bureaucrats
Wear corporate hats
To drive the economy
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National economy in future= 1% holding millions of i-robots making robo-calls? Kind of fantasy world you see in the Xtreme video.
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I read Brooks article and an article by Larry Cuban in succession and wrote this post in response: http://waynegersen.com/2014/10/31/ai-and-technology-in-schools/
If Brooks’ utopian vision of the future of technology is realized, schooling would focus more on personal and moral development and less on content that is available on Google or YouTube— or via stand-and-deliver instruction.
And if his dystopian vision occurs?
Brooks writes: “In the cold, utilitarian future, on the other hand, people become less idiosyncratic. If the choice architecture behind many decisions is based on big data from vast crowds, everybody follows the prompts and chooses to be like each other. The machine prompts us to consume what is popular, the things that are easy and mentally undemanding.”
Which leads to a closing questions:
Which future is standardized testing leading us toward? One where idiosyncrasy is valued or one where it is punished? One where “everyone follows prompts” or one where people can choose to be different from the crowd? One where people “consume what is popular… easy to understand, and mentally undemanding” or one where people consume what is unique, complicated, and mentally demanding?
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We won’t survive. We aren’t surviving. I’m glad I won’t be around when we pound the last nails into our our coffins.
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The reduction of manufacturing and some service jobs is inevitable and “we should plan for it.” It is sad but true. However there is now more than at any time the potential for more entrepreneur ventures. Cottage industries are returning. Just join Etsy.com and you will see thousands of crafting entrepreneurs. Most are women which is exciting. The reduction of jobs in either manufacturing or service is challenging us to be more creative about how we earn money. We need to foster in our youth an entrepreneurial spirit and a willingness to travel to different states or abroad for work. I’m naturally adventurous and always have been since my youth. However I find most people seem terribly scared to travel out of their comfort zone. Most people can not fathom leaving their home state or traveling to another country for work. This “stay put” mindset prevents people from finding jobs. We need to teach our children to fly and to be independent. We need to encourage them to go see the world! It is a big wide world with so many opportunities. To change this stay put mindset we need to encourage our youth to engage in the working world before they graduate from college. They should experience the independence one feels when one earns their own money in high school and in college. We need to encourage them to explore the different states in our nation and abroad. If we do this we may have less college graduates living in their parent’s basement.
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I agree with you.
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When you are 60+ and disenfranchised and your health was wrecked by the stress teaching …where is the capacity to be entrepreneurial when all your focusing was on teaching and jumping through hoops as your health declined. What next?
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Your comment reads as if it could have been written by the press office of Uber, whose business model and wealth is predicated on destroying the (already low) living standards of cab drivers.
The overwhelming majority of people on Etsy earn a starvation income, while those who developed it have become wealthy, skimming off the top of what little the producers make.
Therein is the essence of the so-called “sharing” economy, where everyone is an independent contractor, with no benefits or security whatsoever.
It’s an ideal propagandistic turn of phrase, since in fact it’s a “taking” economy, with the product of people’s labor being taken from them in even more exploitive ways, while a tiny few become fabulously wealthy controlling the valves and access ramps to these technologies.
Beware of all utopians, but especially techno-utopians, who will enslave you while smiling and whispering cliches of freedom in your ears.
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Michael,
Any love for the carriage drivers that the cab companies killed off? They were very highly skilled in handling their horses, skills that became useless all thanks to the cab drivers.
If it is any conciliation, as soon as self driving cars are in the market in large numbers, I expect Uber will be killed off as well. I think it is likely that few people will end up owning cars because renting them will be so convenient. Most cars spend most of their lives just sitting in one spot with the engine off, it makes a huge amount of sense to use that wasted capacity.
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According to history, there is a story in most of Asian countries to remind me about how people in the past show us that only the strong survives. People have evolved from different small tribes into one big nation in order to survive against a stronger foreigner nation. Finally, nations unite into alliance force to fight against fascism, and communism (=ideology).
In this modern day, I can predict that we will live backward. According to Confucius, when people are too poor, they become thief. Thanks to technology like internet, these thieves are well equipped with marketing, media, and corruption (==social skills) to become notorious con artist of century (21st century). They are in a small and powerful group. Each group will compete to seize the most treasure on Earth, and into galaxies, not for survival, but for fantasy. And guess what happens that these lunatics will need teaching profession NATION who will teach them how to live with nature and how to enjoy the meaningful life before the Death visit them.
Welcome to more input into this thread. I am crazy or saint dependent on people’s objective view. Back2basic
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This article strikes a cord when I reflect on the “corporate ed mantra”… COLLEGE AND CAREER READY. Current curriculum is dictated by this supposed term (as if public education never prepared its citizens for productive work lives before???). If we have most of our manufacturing jobs going to robots and need very few workers to man them, it stands to reason we will have ever-increasing unemployment. So what exactly is the curriculum really preparing public students for? I would answer, “to be good followers and do exactly what is told of them – even to think as they are told”!
Are there any other teachers out there truly noticing how students are losing their natural curiosity (or are at least afraid to exercise it)? For so many years our education systems have been so busy attempting each year (sometimes even midyear) to make marked changes to curriculum to meet government-led RTTT/NCLB and now common core dictates. Children do not exist in a vacuum and are adversely effected by this constant “disruptive theory” change. Students no longer invest much in what is being supposedly learned because they are used to it being “unlearned” at a moment’s notice! Why invest under these conditions? This produces confusion, anxiety about “learning”, lack of interest in “learning” anything “too well” because they know IT WILL CHANGE and frankly they do not even have time to learn anything well anyway.
While our “ed reformers” believe in “disruptive change” theory ad nausea, this is doing irreparable harm to our nations’ children (it is abusive) and it will continue to do irreparable harm to a nation of public school children (and teachers too) – is there not a legal term intentional emotional duress???? Post Traumatic Distress Syndrome is very real in these circumstances!!!! RTTT has created war-like conditions in schools!!!!!
I heard peels of laughter coming from one of the rooms in my school the other day – an entire class of children laughing along with their teacher!!! My heart sang. I remember a time when this happened frequently – now it is a rarity. The students could not believe what a science experiment had lead to! The thrill was contagious. We need more of this. The teacher instigating these peels of laughter is a 30 plus year veteran teacher who at this point feels nothing to lose by ignoring RTTT dictates!
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My classroom mantra “a day without laughter is a day wasted.”. We laughed a lot.
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This particular post clarifies several things:
1. The emphasis on STEM is badly, miserably misplaced;
2. There is a dearth of real leadership in public education, from the “leaders” at AFT and the NEA, to superintendents and principals and school board members;
3. The real emphases in public schools should be on democratic citizenship, personal growth and development, and critical and reflective thinking.
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Couple this with people in Cibgress who want to get rid of Social Security, Medicare, ACA, teachers, and social support services and the lemmings who agree…and America is toast. This blog post is the most frightening thing I have read and caysed the most hopelessness I have felt in a very long time. This past election shows that people truly don’t have critical thinking skills. I am beginning to look forward to death.
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Reblogged this on Left Coast Voices and commented:
Another great post from Lloyd Lofthouse
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This reminds me of an old post of mine, before my blog name got stolen by a spammer and I moved on to other projects. I’m glad someone else is seeing this phenomenon. It’s a taboo subject in the news media. We are currently led to believe that there will be just as many, or more, jobs taking care of the machines we build. It’s a fool’s paradise.
http://thrustblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/where-have-jobs-gone.html
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