Poor Tennessee! It is locked in the embrace of fake reformers who promise miracles, and a far-right legislature that wants to believe them. Worse, having won a Race to the Top grant, it has to produce miracles, even if they are fabricated out of whole cloth.

One of the alleged miracles-to-be is the Achievement School District, led by Chris Barbic of TFA and YES Prep. Barbic came to Tennessee to take charge of the lowest-performing schools and promised to raise them up to the top 25% in the state in only five years.

Now come the lies. Gary Rubinstein here unravels the manipulation of data to show how unimpressive the gains are as contrasted to the miracle claims.

Gary writes, after analyzing the numbers:

“Suddenly, it’s not so good anymore. The ASD grew by 1.1% more than the state in that period while the ASD actually went down by .7% more than the state went down. At this rate of losing .35% of ground each year to the state, the ASD will never get out of the bottom 5% in reading, and for math where there is a 30% difference between the ASD and the Tennessee average, if they creep up at .5% a year it will take 60 years for them to get to the 50% mark, let alone the top 25%.”

As Gary shows, there were no miracles, other than the miraculous tales told by the reformers to their true believers.

The clock is ticking. Three years to go until the bottom 5% is in the top 25% of all schools in Tennessee. Anyone want to place bets?