Kenneth Wagner, Commissioner of Education in Rhode Island, has approved a plan to allow the Achievement First “no-excuses” charter chain to more than triple its enrollment over the next decade to more than 3,000 students. (Other stories say that the number of students will grow from the present 720 to 2,000.) The proposal is controversial because the increase in charter enrollment will cut the budget of the public schools in Providence, where most of the students are now in attendance. So, most students will suffer larger classes and fewer programs so that the well-funded AF chain may expand.

The city’s internal auditor estimates that the district public schools will lose between $28 and $29 million annually by the time Achievement First reaches full enrollment. The analysis by the Rhode Island Department of Education estimates that the district will lose $35 million, of which $8 million comes from the city in local aid. The rest comes form the state.

The per pupil spending follows the child from a traditional public school to a charter school.

Critics say if the charter school grows to 3,112 children, it will have a devastating impact on the traditional public schools and effectively create a parallel school system.

By state law, Wagner must consider the financial impact of a charter school expansion on the sending school districts, in this case, Providence, Cranston, North Providence and Warwick. But 86 percent of the charter’s students come from Providence, so the impact will be greatest there.

Based on the experience of other states, Providence is likely to see its credit rating fall, meaning that the city will have to pay more for its indebtedness. But when a politically powerful group like AF, backed by billionaires, wants to grow, what matters is not the vast majority of students–who will suffer budget cuts–or the city and state’s bond rating, but placating the billionaires.

The mayor of Providence, Jorge Elorza, is chair of the board of the Achievement First charter chain in Rhode Island, and he said recently that he won’t move forward with the expansion unless AF’s wealthy backers raise the $28-32 million that the school district will lose as AF expands.

A defender of the expansion plan said that the fiscal impact wouldn’t be as bad as the state and city auditors estimate, because once children learn to read at grade level, property taxes will rise. Yes, he really did make that claim.

William Fischer, a spokesman for RI-CAN, part of a national, pro-school choice advocacy group, said the R.I. Education Department has a legal obligation to weigh the fiscal impact on the entire community, not just the school district.

“We hope the study will look at the impacts to property taxes when students are reading at grade level,” he said. “I thought [the auditor’s report] was a very simple analysis. It didn’t take into account student attrition and the charter’s growth over a decade.”

This is called “magical thinking.”

Jonathan Pelto has written extensively about the Achievement First charter chain in Connecticut. He has pointed out that AF schools have disproportionately small numbers of students who are in need of special education and who are English language learners. Like other no-excuses charters, they are known for their high attrition rates. They skim, they cherrypick, and they get extra funding as compared to high-needs districts from which they poach students.

The Providence Journal editorial board endorsed the proposal to divvy up school funding between charters and public schools, even though 80% of the kids in need of extra attention will still remain in the public schools after AF reaches its goal, and even though the public schools will lose resources, making them less able to help those left behind.

Achievement First spokeswoman Amanda Pinto said the school is “thrilled” by Wagner’s recommendation.

“When considering the fiscal impact,” she said, “The most important factor is the economic value of providing thousands more Rhode Island students with a high-quality education that equips them for success in college, career and life.”

In other words, the negative fiscal impact on the vast majority of students in the Providence public schools and on the finances of Providence don’t matter, as compared to any test scores gains for the small minority of students that AF accepts and retains. This is just plain selfish thinking. 

Can any sensible person say that it is a good idea to open new schools to enroll 3,000 or so students, when 15,000 students are in need of extra help? If AF follows the pattern it established in Connecticut, it will skim off the most promising students, subject them to stern discipline, and then boast of its test scores.

If anyone steps back and thinks about this picture, it makes no sense. This is a recipe for a dual school system, both drawing from the same pie, with one free to choose its students, the other accepting all students who show up. Following this path will weaken the public schools that enroll most students, strip them of the resources they need for the students, and send them on a path of steady decline. This is a bad deal, from the point of view of the students, the city, and the state.