Billy Townsend writes a blog where he exposes public corruption in Florida. In this post, he tries to understand why his friends and neighbors will vote for Trump.
He begins:
Choosing — yet again — to inflict a deteriorating, revenge-obsessed, 78-year-old Capitol lynch mob inciting felon sex abuser and his horde of MAGA freaks on your friends, loved ones, neighbors, fellow citizens, and communities means inflicting — yet again — a deteriorating, revenge-obsessed, 78-year-old Capitol lynch mob inciting felon sex abuser and his horde of MAGA freaks on your friends, loved ones, neighbors, fellow citizens, and communities.
I am surrounded in Lakeland, Florida these days by folks who have made this choice multiple times already, who pretend they’re in downcast denial about the self-evident facts of making that choice yet again, especially post January 6th. They’re pretending to believe that choosing to make a MAGA dictatorship and give it the nuclear codes and Department of Justice does not meanmaking a MAGA dictatorship and giving it the nuclear codes and Department of Justice….
What I most value about elections is that they force clear, unambiguous choices. The MAGA Freak dictatorship choice before us is the clearest and most obviously one-sided choice in the history of American self-government. Everyone knows this. The fact that the vote will be close on something so obvious says more about Americans than it does about the choice we face. MAGA doesn’t even have a fake economic or border argument to make.
I mean, at the most elemental level, I would be proud to call Kamala Harris friend, aunt, wife, mother, boss, co-worker Kiwanis Club president, mayor, minister. I would be disgusted and embarrassed to call the deteriorating 78-year-old MAGA dictator friend, uncle, husband, father, boss, Kiwanis Club president, mayor, minister.
Diane Ravitch's blog 
So, how did we get here? Why is HALF the American electorate breathtakingly misinformed and ignorant? Why don’t these people know that we can’t nuke hurricanes and send astronauts to the sun? Why do they not know that the countries on which we impose tariffs don’t pay the tariffs? Why don’t they know enough about the history of medical science to understand the necessity of vaccines?
We have a breathtakingly uneducated populace. And Trump, ofc, in his own words, “loves the uneducated.”
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I agree with you. I would add that much of one’s education comes after your school years. School is supposed to start you out toward citizenship, not complete your journey. Longer work hours, more access to right wing radio, and a greater volume generally of misinformation is a part of the golden triangle of modern fascism.
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Good morning Bob,
I think about this a lot. What is it that people see in Trump? I think there are many factors. It’s not all about education although that does play a role. I think much of it has to do with psychology and projection. He is also a hook on which people project their fears (of immigrants, losing their jobs) and desires (to be wealthy and famous, to have power, to believe in a savior or parental figure who will solve all their problems). I think people don’t work consciously with their deepest fears and patterns that keep them locked into a way of thinking. And even when they do, it’s hard to let those ego-binding illusions be changed. That takes a psychologically mature person. But it’s still painful. Further, I think there’s real disappointment with this country and a wide gap between the rich and poor which causes anxiety and anger. I think there’s a great destructive impulse in people (everyone, actually) and we hear how people think he is a “change agent.” Unfortunately, they don’t always think out what that change will be. Social media and the internet have made it easy to spout hate and fear monger without taking the time for self reflection, holding back and asking oneself what really going on inside me here. Am I putting out as much hate into the world as I am accusing others of doing? People can’t concentrate for long periods anymore or listen to reasoned arguments. They can only respond to sound bites and jump to solutions that are easy fixes. We’re constantly reacting, letting our emotions spill out into everything we say. Finally, there’s so much information out there that people don’t know where or how to find properly vetted information. This is probably the most insidious problem we have now in terms of the media. So, I think there’s a lot in play here, and I don’t think the answer is easy and clear cut. 🙂
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Mamie, your analysis is always pointed and thoughtful
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Thanks Roy,
In terms of education, though, Bob is right in many ways. I think living abroad (and extensive travel) is one of the best things Americans can do. Learning about foreign cultures and languages is so important because you realize that your way of life isn’t the only way to live. And sometimes it may not even be the best way to live. It broadens your perspective about people and culture and YOURSELF. And sometimes it can really break your ego and your vision of yourself but if you don’t do that sometimes, you can’t grow. I’ve been through two school districts getting rid of French now so that students will have no choice but to take Spanish. I often think how short-sighted and narrow-minded it is. I also think there are some unconscious issues at play here too. But anyway, yes, education does play an important role, as Bob said.
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And there’s the pope who decries women’s right to make choices over their OWN bodies, while priests rape the young.
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I don’t dispute that we have a lot of stupid people in America (although I think there are a lot of stupid people everywhere). But I know a fair number of intelligent people who will vote for Trump.
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I cannot call anyone who would make this moron the leader of the free world intelligent. Intelligent is as intelligent does.
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I know what you mean by this. I know a guy with a degree in engineering and forty plus years in aerospace who thinks Kamala is a commie and Trump is the second coming. I know a pediatrician who bid Trump a fond farewell in 2020, citing the “class” Trump brought to the presidency.
These people are not stupid. They are, however, militant about their refusal to believe anything bad about Trump. Any negative fact about their guy is just rejected as bad press.
Some years ago, a friend reported on a conversation he had with the president of a major engineering school. The President told him a disappointing truth: I am graduating students who can build anything. But they will build it for anybody.
No matter how smart you are, you can still rationalize beliefs.
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Misinformation for political gain is a big problem. We are not the only country that is grappling with this issue. Australia recently proposed a tax on misinformation, but such a tax would be challenged as a infringement of 1st Amendment rights. However, just as there are laws against yelling “fire” in a theater, perhaps there is a way for legal scholars to distinguish between harmless free speech and misleading speech that causes harm to others. Nevertheless, legal scholars may be able to figure out a way to carefully thread that needle since having so many Americans tricked into believing such demagoguery that it is a threat to national security. While we do have slander laws, they seem not apply to deliberate misinformation for political gain, and nothing is possible with the current composition of The Supreme Court. It may be time for us to look for some legal ways to curtail the misinformation madness. It’s a complex problem with no simple solution.
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If we believe that better education is the answer, we will not be producing too many critical thinkers from our public schools since online education produces worse results. https://www.newsweek.com/educational-screens-classrooms-do-more-harm-good-opinion-1953468
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Hi Retired teacher,
I talk about this with my husband all the time. And it’s a really difficult problem. It’s going to be worse when not only language but images and video can now be doctored and used to incite violence on a large scale.
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I don’t want the government in the business of determining what is true and what is false.
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Nate Silver says that the race is neck and neck. He has a history of being right. God help us.
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While I prefer to keep expectations extremely low, Thomas Miller, the data scientist from Northwestern, has a history of being more accurate than Nate Silver.
(I never understand why Nate Silver gets credit since his polling was still way off in 2016. I guess being less way off than other people in one election goes a long way.)
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Nate Silver doesn’t do polling.
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Correct. Nate Silver is an aggregator of polls.
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It also doesn’t really make strict sense to say he’s accurate or inaccurate, because he doesn’t make predictions, but rather publishes probabilities based on simulation outcomes.
I like Silver not because I think he’s “accurate” per se, but because he provides useful information that helps one think about the likelihood of different outcomes. How much weight one puts on his probabilities depends on how good one thinks his model is, and he’s fairly transparent about how the model works and its limitations.
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Exactly so, Flerp.
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Nate Silver doesn’t do polling, so there is no such thing as “his polling.”
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Correction:
While I prefer to keep expectations extremely low, Thomas Miller, the data scientist from Northwestern, has a history of being more accurate than Nate Silver.
(I never understand why Nate Silver gets credit since his prediction was still way off in 2016. I guess being less way off than other people in one election goes a long way.)
You are correct that Silver does not do polling. Neither does Miller.
Thomas Miller’s predictions have been more accurate than Silver’s.
But it’s pretty safe for anyone to say the race is neck and neck. I predict that Nate Silver will be able to garner plaudits for “being right” regardless of the actual results! I’d even bet on it.
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Silver didn’t make a “prediction” in the 2016 race, he published win probabilities. As I recall, in November 2016, his 538 model was giving Trump a much bigger chance of winning than most of his peers.
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flerp!
I know what Nate does. Just a couple weeks ago Nate said the probability of a Trump victory was 60%, so 50/50 odds is Nate saying Kamala has gained ground.
And I understand that a lot of people find it useful to know if a candidate has an 18% chance of losing versus a 33% chance of losing.
And some people find it useful, after being told that the candidate has an 18% chance of losing one week, that the chances the next week are up to a 33% chance. It’s especially helpful if you are placing bets on the outcome.
It’s also helpful for the person figuring the odds, since they are only giving odds for a final outcome. They get plaudits for having “a history of being right” if they say the candidate has a 33% chance of losing for all these outcomes:
The candidate wins in a very tight race! (They said the candidate had a 66% chance of winning!)
The candidate wins in a landslide! (They said the candidate had a 66% chance of winning!)
The candidate loses in a very tight race! (They said the candidate had a 33% chance of losing and some actual polls showed the candidate winning.)
The candidate loses in a landslide! (They said the candidate had a 33% chance of losing and some actual polls showed the candidate winning.)
I just find it amusing that Nate gets plaudits for his 2016 election odds that gave Trump’s odds of winning as 33% .
But as you seem to be saying, Nate was increasing his odds of a Trump victory because the various polls were showing Trump gaining ground at the end.
And now Nate is increasing the odds of a Kamala victory because the various polls are showing her gaining grounds.
It makes me wonder whether why there is any point in talking about polls or predictions or “odds of winning” until October 30. In 2016, Nate’s odds of a Trump victory fluctuated all summer and fall, and even the last week his model only gave Trump a one in three chance of victory.
I was extremely worried about the outcome right up to election day, but many folks reading Nate Silver only giving Trump a 33% chance were not.
The one thing I think we agree on is that any calculations of the odds of victory made today are no more valid than the odds of victory made 3 weeks ago, or 2 months ago. Especially since whatever Nate Silver says this week will be forgotten as soon as he makes a new calculation of odds.
But lucky for Nate, he can even return to his early September probabilities, giving Kamala only a 40% chance of winning, and if Kamala wins, he will be more correct than his 2016 probabilities calculation was!
I want his job. It seems like he can’t go wrong!
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Sorry, it wasn’t clear that you did know what he does, since you were first incorrectly saying he was doing polling, and then incorrectly saying he was making predictions. Anyway we can assume you know now.
I think a lot of people see stuff like “33%” and interpret it like they would interpret a two-candidate poll in which one candidate got only 33% support, which would signal a landslide. A win probability of 33 percent means 33 times out of 100 times, Trump wins the election. Those are odds that should have made anyone extremely nervous (or excited if they were a Trump fan).
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I was extremely nervous 2 weeks ago when Nate told me Kamala’s chances of winning were only 40%. And I’m extremely nervous about him saying this week her odds of winning are 50%.
And obviously, I will also be extremely nervous if Nate says Kamala’s odds of winning have increased to 66% because that’s what he said the Democrats’ chances were in 2016, when we all should have been extremely nervous.
I don’t see any way to not be extremely nervous if I read Nate Silver! Unless I am a Republican.
“A win probability of 33 percent means 33 times out of 100 times, Trump wins the election. Those are odds that should have made anyone extremely nervous (or excited if they were a Trump fan).”
One reason I find Nate Silver kind of useless is that statement. Trump fans can be excited with a win probability of 33% but Democrats should be extremely nervous with a win probability of 66%.
I really think it would be more useful to concede that Democrats need to be extremely nervous, period. It’s not like Nate giving odds of winning at 75% (or even 90%) instead of 66% means we don’t have to be extremely nervous. Especially because next week Nate might change those odds back to the 40% odds he gave Kamala 2 weeks ago. And then we would be kicking ourselves for not being extremely nervous when Kamala’s odds of victory were 90% because we should have known that in a week or two those odds could change to the very worrisome 66%.
We should all be extremely nervous and worried, period.
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If you don’t find it useful then it’s not for you. I think it is useful. What’s useless for everyone is people who make firm predictions of extremely close races as if they have some election spidey sense.
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I don’t remember anyone of consequence making a “firm prediction” of any presidential race, even when Reagan wiped the floor with Carter and Mondale, but yes, we should definitely oppose that. As I did back in June when everyone said Biden was a guaranteed loser if he stayed in the race.
Polls can show a race being “extremely close” one week and much further apart a few weeks later, which is what happened in 2016. So I’m with you about people making “firm predictions” about the future. I didn’t find Nate Silver useful in 2016 when he told me the odds of Trump winning were practically zero nor did I find him useful when he told me the odds of Trump winning were 33%.
The odds are constantly changing, so to me, knowing what the odds are on any given week when I know they are going to change again, probably multiple times, seems less than useful, since I already know I have to be extremely nervous regardless of what the odds are any given week.
Although if Nate Silver ever presents odds that will allow me to act like a Republican and be excited instead, I will thank you if you can post that info here. It would be a huge relief!
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I write short fiction (and have two novels in draft form). I’m pretty imaginative. However, it would strain my resources to invent a more vile, a more despicable character than Donald Trump. He has it all: breathtaking ignorance, vanity, stupidity, cruelty, dishonesty, criminality, traitorousness, seditiousness. He is a serial predator and philanderer and spoiled rich boy and degenerate one-time playboy and adjudged rapist. He preys upon middle-class and poor people. He is utterly amoral. And half our freaking country thinks he is just grand.
Sickening.
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How can we be here, neck and neck?!? Harris should be leading by light years. Trump is so obviously unfit to be president of anything; he’s a ranting blowtorch of lies and misinformation. Decades of hate radio has indeed laid the groundwork for a fascist thug.
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It boggles the imagination. Trump is utterly loathsome. I cannot stand to listen to him or look at him.
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Bob,
I agree. Trump is a loathsome person. He appeals to racism and hatred. He will say anything to get votes or sell schlock. He certainly has no capacity to appeal to “the better angels of our nature.” He appeals to the same people who used to join lynch mobs or join in the town square to see someone tarred and feathered.
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The other thing that gets me is how BREATHTAKINGLY IGNORANT people have to be to think that this dirtball piece of shit was and will be a good president. I’m sorry, if someone thinks he knows WTF he is doing and gives a hoot, then that person is a moron. I don’t care what position said person holds in our society–doctor, lawyer, GrandKleagel–he or she is an ignorant moron.
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Bob,
Every day of the four years Trump was president, I worried about what he would do next. What crazy things would he say next. I watched the turnover of his staff with apprehension. When he lost, I thought, “I’ll never have to listen to him again.” Now there is a steady and wise hand on the tiller.
I blame Mitch McConnell for letting this lunatic survive to take control of the GOP. I have not forgotten what it was like.
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Same. Every day. This insane man is directly responsible for the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. And he has been a Russian useful idiot, a kind of Russian asset, since the 1980s. As long as he plays a large role in our political life, I will feel like I am in the middle of piece of absurdist horror theatre.
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I used to post on Facebook a feature I called “Today’s Outrage,” chronicling the daily idiocies and horrors of his maladministration. Every single day, I would wake and ask myself, “What utterly moronic and extremely dangerous thing will this demented fool do today?”
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“Every single day, I would wake and ask myself, “What utterly moronic and extremely dangerous thing will this demented fool do today?”
Me too.
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300,000 Haitian-Americans are registered to vote in Florida. I hope they express their views at the polls. Florida would go blue Rick Scott would lose. Karma.
Someone on Twitter wrote: if only Trump would accuse retirees of eating cats and dogs. It would be a landslide.
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We also have a suboptimal (to put it mildly) electoral system, both nationally (Electoral College) and state-level (electors awarded winner-take-all rather than proportional). This would all be very different if not for those factors.
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”The MAGA Fluid cannot even articulate whythey are freely choosing to toss out 250 years of American efforts at self-government as casually as a Trump wife. “
For anyone who has never read the scathing prose of Billy Townsend, the above quote is instructive. You really should read his blog.
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When I hear someone say that Harris is a communist or a socialist, I like to ask what the person means by those terms. Most of the time it’s some vague answer completely off the mark.
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These are know-nothings. They haven’t any notion what a Communist or Socialist is.
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Talking out their asses
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Why?
Why are so many older people taken in by Trump, while it is the youngest voters who see Trump as he is? Maybe rumors of the educational malpractice committed by public schools in the last decade is greatly exaggerated. Seems like it is the Trump voters (mainly older) whose schools failed to teach them critical reasoning skills.
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It’s the New York Times, obviously.
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Obviously, it’s their education.
(Not sure what your intention was with this comment. Was it to provoke a juvenile fight? Sorry, not interested in playing along today. Maybe try taking a walk instead – it’s beautiful in NYC!)
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Vote for Trump and extend the time that women will have to crawl through a misogynist minefield just to have one’s voice heard.
I have just recently been reminded AGAIN of an episode of the Mary Tyler Moore Show where Mary complained about something or other with political overtones, and Mr. Grant says,
“Mary, you’ve got spunk. . . . I HATE spunk.”
And that’s just one percent of the problem with even the thought of another round of “President Trump.” What will he do or say next? CBK
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NYC: My thought is that older people were raised thinking that the news was most often believable, like with the Walter Cronkite variety. Change is hard. “Old change” is nigh impossible. CBK
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Over on her blog AccountaBaloney, Sue Woltanski has posted a very useful School House Rockesque video on Project 2025. Share!
https://youtu.be/CvQhTbCY4xc?si=C01ZGmnxXbZ4Til-
Here’s a link to her blog post:
https://accountabaloney.com/watch-and-share-this-video/
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Thank you for this commentary laced with humor. Humor may be the only thing maintaining my sanity these days. You are spot on!
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Blind optimist here. The noise has become so amplified and divisive that no one can see another alternative to the “why the 45 is my guy” theme. An alternative scenario (admittedly, without research to back it up), is that he isn’t. I’m not even going to get into the horse race that MSM and the polls (wide margin of error) are creating on purpose to keep us glued to the internet and empty our wallets. It’s possible that mainstream Republicans (forget MAGA, it’s a cult) will vote for Harris, regardless of whether they answer the poll truthfully. If GOP officials are willing to publicly endorse Harris, there are others out there who won’t admit it publicly in their own conservative circles, but will pull that blue lever when it counts.
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In case anyone is looking for another thing to worry about, read this gift article (trigger warning, it’s the New York Times) about what’s happening in Nebraska.
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I read this yesterday when you referred to it in a comment (thank you for that reference, as I decided to check out what was happening in Nebraska).
My immediate thoughts:
Of course this guy is going to cave. Republicans cave to Trump or they are excommunicated and severely punished. I doubt this guy is the very rare unicorn Republican willing to make that sacrifice.
Today’s Republican holding office seem to view Trump the way Russian politicians and government officials view Putin. They know very well what it means to express any disagreement with Putin. In Russia, those who dare to express any disagreement seem to meet with unfortunate accidents or find themselves in jail serving life sentences. In the US, Trump won’t amass that kind of power until he regains the presidency. So Republicans who try to stand on legal and moral principle don’t yet fear for their lives, they just fear for their livelihood and career. Once Trump is president knowing he fully owns the “Trump has full immunity” Supreme Court, all bets are off.
Scary times.
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Only caveat is that he’s not a garden variety Republican—he was a Democrat until several months ago.
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That’s a good point. And he has political aspirations that might be hampered by having blue Nebraska very angry at him.
If this were a movie, he would keep his principles but machinations by corrupt Republicans acting on Trump’s behest would mean his vote wasn’t needed and Nebraska would return to a winner take all electoral votes system.
But in the final twist, the Democrat would squeak out a victory and get ALL Nebraska’s electoral votes!
The America of Frank Capra doesn’t exist anymore, unfortunately.
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Why does anyone want to vote for an aging, narcissistic, demented liar who spreads HATRED?
………………………………..
Trump’s hate“Hate” has become his signature utterance
ROBERT REICH
SEP 23
Trump has never taken responsibility for the consequences of his hatefulness.
He still insists he was not responsible for the attack on the Capitol. Yet since the attack, he has suggested the mob might have been correct in wanting to hang his vice president. And he has called for those arrested in connection with the attack to be released, casting them as “hostages,” “political prisoners,” and “patriots,” whom he will pardon if reelected.
His incendiary rhetoric about immigrants — calling them “vermin,” claiming they’re “poisoning the blood” of America, charging that the United States is “under invasion” from “thousands and thousands and thousands of terrorists” — is worsening the hate and violence.
His baseless claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating people’s pets continues to generate bomb threats and death threats there. Schools and government offices have been closed. After more than 33 such bomb threats, Ohio’s governor has provided state police to conduct daily sweeps of Springfield schools.
Trump’s proclivity for violence was evident when he urged his followers to march on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, knowing they were carrying deadly weapons.
He has urged supporters to beat up hecklers; mocked the near-fatal attack on the husband of the Democratic House speaker; suggested that a general he deemed disloyal be executed; threatened to shoot looters and undocumented migrants; warned of “potential death & destruction” if indicted in his New York criminal case; made the ludicrous claim that “Babies are being executed after birth”; and predicted a “bloodbath” if he’s not elected in November…
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