The highly respected Quinnipiac Poll reported a new poll a few hours ago that shows Biden opening a 6-point lead over Trump. The poll also shows Haley beating Biden. When the third party candidates are added, Biden’s lead over Trump declines from six points to two.
At this early date, the polls don’t mean much, but Biden has consistently had low favorability ratings, and the drumbeat of polls favoring Trump worried Democrats. This poll reverses the negativity. At least for now.
Biden polls especially well among women and independents. The picture gets muddier when third-party candidates are factored in.
As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 – 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
In Quinnipiac University’s December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup was ‘too close to call’ as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.
In today’s poll, Democrats (96 – 2 percent) and independents (52 – 40 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (91 – 7 percent) support Trump.
The gender gap is widening.
Women 58 – 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 – 41 percent.
Men 53 – 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 – 41 percent.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.
Among independents in the five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 35 percent support, Trump receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support, and Stein receives 5 percent support.
As Thom Hartmann pointed out in a post recently, if no candidate wins a majority of electoral votes, the election shifts to the House of Representatives, where each state has one vote. If there are more Republican states than Democratic states, Trump would win. Thanks to the third-party candidates. It would not be surprising if Trump funders added cash to third-party candidates.
Diane Ravitch's blog 
I suspect that as we saw in the midterm election, the Democrats will take this one in a landslide. EVERYONE is sick of the Jabba the Trump show., and Gen-Zers are coming online as voters. I just hope they come out to the polls. Also, a LOT of American women and men are NOT happy that the Trump-appointed “justices” overturned Roe v. Wade. Biden needs to hit this fact hard. TRUMP is the reason why reproductive rights have been taken away for women in much of the United States. Many Repugnican politicians, knowing that they are in the minority on this, have taken info about their anti-abortion stances off their websites.
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Aside from the pro-Putin folks who would rather have Trump as president than any Democrat, it is ridiculous that the biggest criticism of Biden isn’t his performance but his age.
Was just checking out all the people who are of similar age and still going strong.
Tom Selleck isn’t as energetic as he was in his Magnum PI days, but a far
Michael Bloomberg is the same age as Biden.
Sam Waterston is still the Manhattan DA despite being two years OLDER than Biden. (Other Law and Order fans will get this reference).
Harrison Ford and Paul McCartney still working at 81.
Martin Scorsese, 81, just directed what is arguably his finest movie. I saw Killers of the Flower Moon expecting to fall asleep at some point during the 3 and 1/2 hour running time. Never happened. In fact, there is relatively little action except the dawning realization of the banality of evil. And how all that is needed for evil to flourish is for other ordinary folks who may not have been evil on their own to remain silent and complicit. Or take part in it and yet still believe they are “good” because they love the people like their family despite being more than willing to condone the murder of others. A very important warning to us all about the banality of Trump supporters and how they will absolutely be willing to condone the very worst evils if Trump wins.
To me, Susan Collins epitomizes the banality of evil. She will condone anything and tell herself she has principles because on the few occasions when she sees that it is safe, she’ll wag her finger in a way that those who commit evil know is the extent of her disapproval. Her lack of any moral core is present in many of the white townsfolk in that movie.
The Supreme Court has some folks willing to condone evil and others who won’t. I disagree with Roberts about almost everything but like Liz Cheney, he seems like someone unwilling to condone evil. The jury is still out on Coney Bryant and Kavanaugh, but I believe they will side with the other 3 right wingers whose banality and complicity knows no bounds.
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But we cannot be complacent. Another Trump presidency is unthinkable. It is crucial that young people and people of color come out in force this year to prevent that. Trump is an utter moron, but he has learned enough to put boot-lickers in every major position in a new term–including in key DOJ and military posts.
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In a second term, God forbid, Trump would forego the niceties and govern as a dictator from day One on. No checks, no balances. A subservient Congress, more seats to fill on the Supreme Court.
A nightmare.
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Trump the Coward refuses to meet any opposing candidate in debate. So, Biden needs to take the debate to him. My suggestion to the Biden campaign. Start running a series of ads in which a news person or random American asks a question. Then, play clips of Trump and Biden on that issue. LET TRUMP destroy himself in his own words.
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https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Trump%20vows%20to%20end%20roe%20v%20wade%20youtube&mid=6EAE3AB50A37C1A7F4D76EAE3AB50A37C1A7F4D7&ajaxhist=0
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I suspect MSNBC prefers to make the race seem like a cliffhanger for as long as they can. Nine months of hyperventilating to keep ratings up and viewers biting their nails. The network knows that all the cases against Trump will drag on in different stages of appeals that take us past November, as legal scholars in residence explain how the system, er, works. And all the while much of each talking head’s hour is a run-on commercial for various meds that relieve stress. Prediction: Biden stomps Trump.
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“er, works”
Exactly
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This is the thing that kills me, fjstats. We had a Russian Asset and a lifetime crime boss in the Oval Office for four years, and our intelligence apparatus and justice system didn’t hold him to account for anything substantive AND STILL HASN’T. That is historic proof that we have a “Just Us” system in the United States, not a justice system. Trump has money. So, he is untouchable.
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Sans doute! I think the French revolutionaries would have had a sharp way to dispatch certain justices by now. A bas le loi! Marchons.
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Well, I certainly would not go that far.
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If I were worried about a Trump victory, I wouldn’t run an obviously senile 81 year old who is supporting and financing genocide. And I suspect the Democrats aren’t that stupid either (although I’ve been proven wrong before on that point). My guess is that the reason he’s being kept around this long is to take the fall for the Gaza genocide. Sometime at or before the convention I suspect he’ll be switched out (most likely for Newsom who, as a state governor, does not have to open say his position on Israel/Palestine) when Biden suddenly has “health problems” or a need to “spend more time with his family”. The new candidate will promise peace and rainbows between Israel and Palestine (but their policies will be the same if they get into office) and expect us to just forget what’s been happening for four months and counting now.
I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t predict the future, but that’s the only reason I can think of that a wildly unpopular, obviously declining old man is still in the running. Unless the Democrats actually want to lose, which is also possible because fundraising is a lot easier than governing.
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If you were worried about a Trump victory, you’d vote for Biden.
If you were really worried about Biden being a declining old man, you’d vote for Biden, knowing that Kamala Harris would be a perfectly good replacement.
If you are a racist, pro-Putin faux progressive, you’d repeat right wing talking points about Biden being senile, and blame Biden for geopolitical realities beyond his control. Given that it was your beloved Putin who helped prop up Netanyahu, as well as Trump and the Republicans, one wonders why you were so determined to defeat the party that is far more committed to give the Palestinians their own state.
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I’m not worried about a Trump win. But you all sure are.
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Dienne, you were not worried about a Trump win in previous elections, either. I recall warning that women’s reproductive rights would be jeopardized if he was elected. I guess you didn’t care, because now we know.
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Women’s reproductive rights ended under Biden and a Democratic Congress which did nothing to protect them despite promising to do so. And maybe if the Notorious RBG had stepped down…?
Anyway, I’m not worried about a Trump presidency because it doesn’t get much worse than the genocide Biden is supporting and the WWIII he’s ginning up by rattling sabers at Russia, China, Iran and many others simultaneously. Sooner or later the rest of the world is going to decide to do something about the America problem.
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Seriously? Youa re going to blame this on BIDEN and Ruth Bader Ginsburg?
You are freaking delusional.
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What have Democrats actually done to protect abortion rights? Done, not said? They have routinely supported anti-abortion Democratic incumbents over progressive pro-choice challengers. So how do you think that the Democrats are going to arrive at enough congressccritters that support abortion? No matter how many Democrats are elected, there will always be enough Manchins to prevent any serious protection of reproduction right. It’s the same for every other issue – Democrats talk a good game, but there’s always a reason why they can’t deliver. But yet Republicans can always manage to deliver, even when they’re in the minority. That should tell you something.
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You are so right, Dienne!! Republicans deliver!!
Their greatest accomplishment was a tax cut for the 1%!
They delivered.
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Where did I say anything about Republicans, Diane? Your insistence on binary thinking is so juvenile. I would expect better of a scholar of your repute.
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Dienne,
I don’t insult you.
Please don’t insult me.
Childish behavior on your part.
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Gee, I wonder who will win the “elections” in Russia. It’s been such a nail-biter every time since he became absolute monarch and started jailing and poisoning his opponents, or throwing them out of windows.
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I know you think you’re cute, but Russia has nothing to do with this and you’re only making yourself look foolish. Russia isn’t making the Democrats run an octogenarian genocide supporter. Democrats can’t simultaneously force the worst possible candidate on us against even the wishes of their own voters and then claim we have to vote for them to save democracy.
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Hey, Dienne, you hated Hillary in 2016 and you called Biden a sexual predator in 2020. There’s a pattern here.
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Yes, Democrats have a pattern of forcing horrible candidates on us. Hillary ran on a no fly zone in Syria, which would have been WWIII. Biden is a sexual predator – he’s been credibly accused of rape, eight women have accused him of sexual harassment and there are dozens of videos of him pawing girls and women in ways that clearly make them extremely uncomfortable. And that’s only one of the things wrong with Biden. Remember he had to drop out of his first presidential run because of plagiarism. He opposed desegregation because he didn’t want his kids “growing up in a racial jungle”. He wrote and pushed the racist crime bills that are responsible for millions of Blacks being incarcerated. He wrote the bankruptcy bill that makes student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy. He (along with Hillary) was a leading Democrat who made the Iraq war possible. He’s on record saying women shouldn’t always have control of their bodies. He was opposed to gay marriage until political pressure changed his mind in 2013. I could go on and on, all documented. He’s literally been on the wrong side of every single issue for 50 years.
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Well, vote for Trump. He’s perfect.
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“Sooner or later the rest of the world is going to decide to do something about the America problem.” –Dienne77
I’m waiting, Dienne. What do you think “the rest of the world” should do about “the America problem”?
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Stop defending Trump, Dienne, who is doubtless the dumbest, most ignorant knuckle-dragger ever to hold high political office in the United States. He is an imbecile. Every time he opens his mouth, he proves this. He freaking thought that a dementia screening was an IQ test. ROFL. When you defend him, you just sound foolish.
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“I’m not worried about a Trump win”.
That’s exactly what I thought. You are worried about a Democrat winning.
If readers here understand that up front, that what keeps you up at night is the prospect of Biden winning, not Trump winning, all of your posts would be viewed in their correct context.
There are some obviously right wing trolls who everyone ignores, and there are people who are given the benefit of the doubt because readers do not understand that what keeps them up at night is the prospect of Biden – or any Democrat – winning, but the prospect of Trump winning does not worry them.
That changes everything, when folks read your posts. You don’t fear a Trump victory at all. The significant long term damage that the first 4 years of Trump wreaked — where his far right justices and judges are already empowered to block most things that would lead to a progressive future – doesn’t worry you at all. In fact, it worries you so little that you aren’t worried about MORE Trump, this time likely resulting in a Putin-type democracy which would be the death knoll of progress toward a better future.
Are you really a progressive at all? I have no idea what your end game is, except somehow a Putin-like future seems appealing to you?
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Meanwhile, in the Russian paradise, police have started arresting people for stuff like wearing rainbow earrings or posting an equality sign on social media. These lead to hefty fines and prison sentences for being part of what the Russian Supreme Court under Tsar Vladimir has labeled the “international LTBTQX terrorist movement.” Evil.
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If you don’t see that the damage Biden has done has been as bad or worse than the damage Trump has done, I don’t know how to help you. First, Biden has continued nearly all of Trump’s policies. As just one example, Democrats are now frothing at the mouth for the border wall they were so appalled by 7 years ago.
And Biden has expanded the damage through proxy war with Russia over Ukraine, threatened proxy war with China over Taiwan (which is China), and now attacking Iranian interests to provoke hot war with Iran. And that’s on top of funding genocide.
And he hasn’t been much if any better on the home front. Homelessness, food insecurity and medical bankruptcies have all skyrocketed and all Democrats can do is brag about a handful of weak-sauce “reforms” like the 10 drugs that seniors on Medicare can now get for $35/month, which is still expensive and still doesn’t help millions more not on Medicare. Or the less than 1% of student loan debt he’s canceled (mostly for people who were able to pay it anyway) that doesn’t help the millions who have been paying all their lives and still the amount grows.
You people in your comfortable liberal bubbles don’t see the problems because they are carefully swept away from your sight by a compliant media. But that doesn’t change the reality that over half of this country is experiencing deep pain and insecurity which doesn’t change regardless of who’s in office.
Sure, Biden is a “nice” guy (except when, for instance, he’s lying about the trucker involved in his wife’s death) and he doesn’t post mean tweets, but that’s window dressing. It’s policy that affects people’s lives.
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dienne77
You are responsible for Women losing Reproductive Rights. You and other nihilists who could not see the difference between Clinton and Trump. You appointed 3 Supreme Court Justices.
As for Genocide not even close. You demeaned the memory of all those killed in actual Genocides.When you and other delusional fools threw out the term before hardly any were killed. If anyone is guilty of war crimes it is Hamas who fires from Hospitals and schools.
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So, what, exactly, do you suggest that “the rest of the world” do about “the America problem?” Dienne?
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Perhaps she is hoping “the rest of the world” helps defeat the evil Biden so that Trump can win. Just like her beloved Putin did in 2016.
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The same thing America does to the rest of the world.
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Please. Spell it out, Dienne. Tell us just what you think the world should “do to” America.
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On a more serious note, what the rest of the world is going to do (it’s not a matter of what I suggest – contrary to the opinion on this blog, I don’t have a red telephone line to Putin or Xi) and, in fact is already doing, is move away from the petrodollar. As more and more countries join BRICS (and about half a dozen more have announced intention to do so), trading will happen less and less in U.S. dollars, which will virtually eliminate the power the U.S. has over the world. Sanctions and freezing assets will have no power. All that will be left will be our military, and considering how many wars we’ve won in my lifetime (I think we beat Grenada?), I don’t think that’s going to count for much. Unless, that is, the U.S. is willing to go nuclear – would you support that?
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“the only reason I can think of that a wildly unpopular, obviously declining old man is still in the running. Unless the REPUBLICANS actually want to lose, which is also possible because fundraising is a lot easier than governing.”
Isn’t it interesting that dienne77 never muses about how the REPUBLICANS secretly want to lose by running a WILDLY UNPOPULAR, OBVIOUSLY DECLINING OLD MAN?
Agent 77 is right. If the wildly unpopular, obviously declining old man is your beloved Putin’s puppet, you suddenly want to push the narrative that it is Trump who is wildly popular, when Trump is far more unpopular than Biden. Trump is barely winning 50% of his own party and dienne77 never says that she suspects the Republicans want to lose by running an obviously declining old man. Why not?
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A Pew Poll on consumer sentiment interested me more. It asked consumers /voters of each party how was their personal financial position and then what they thought of the US Economy. 30% of Republicans said they were doing good or great. Another 40 percent said they were doing OK. Yet 44% said the economy was terrible and another 32% said it was bad. While National polls on consumer sentiment are positive, that total disconnect seldom gets covered. It should be the disclaimer on every story about the economy, or Biden’s approval ratings.
The longest period of below 4% unemployment since the mid 60s is a far,far bigger story than 3% inflation. Someone forgot to tell the media that inflation has been coming down for almost 1.5 years as supply chains cleared. The reporters at the Times and CNN do not seem to have access to the DOL. Real inflation adjusted median income is higher than inflation. Especially in the bottom half of the workforce. (Except for agent 77.)
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Good to see but I’m also regularly seeing polls showing Trump ahead in many and sometimes most battleground states. Scary stuff.
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This poll is the latest. Published yesterday.
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Lots of things could change between February and November
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Important also is the positive movement of the poll.
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“When the third party candidates are added, Biden’s lead over Trump declines from six points to two.”
I am deep in a fog of dread and depression today and seeing that sentence doesn’t help.
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