In part 1 of his two-part series, Yoav Fisher explains why Israel lost the war. In part 2 of his two-part analysis, Yoav Fisher explains why Hamas lost the war.
Conclusion: there are no “winners” in this war. Israel must accept a two-state solution, agreeing that Palestinians must have their own autonomous state. Hamas must abandon its core belief that Israel ought to be eliminated. Both sides must sit down and negotiate in good faith. Clearly, this will not happen with the current leadership on both sides. For the sake of peace, outside forces (including the U.S. and Arab nations) must intervene to bring about a robust and lasting peace. This situation is yet another reason to oppose the return of Donald Trump; he is close to Netanyahu and will do nothing to betray his friend.
The links in his article did not appear when I laboriously copied it, paragraph by paragraph. Open his article to see his links to sources.
Fisher writes:
Hamas lost the Domestic Front
The alleged goals of Hamas, specifically freedom for Palestinians, failed miserably. Palestinians are no more free now than they were on October 6th. Actually, Palestinians in Gaza are significantly worse off than they were before. Every single dead Gazan would be alive right now had Hamas not instigated a war (#facts).
Hamas has had a stranglehold on Gaza from the day they came to power — neglecting the basic needs of citizens, hoarding resources and foreign donations for themselves and their Jihadi terrorist aims, neglecting infrastructure, and using civilians as human shields.
Palestinians themselves have been aware of this for years, and more and more voices of Palestinians themselves are starting to speak out against Hamas, chipping away at the false narrative that Hamas actually cares about Gazan citizens.
Hamas also failed domestically regarding the Arab population in the West Bank and in Israel. Hamas expected the West Bank to flare up, which it didn’t. Hamas also hoped that Arab Israelis would rise up as well. In fact, the exact opposite happened. Arab Israeli have largely stayed loyal to Israel.
Arab Israelis are supremely practical, aware, and knowledgeable about the situation in the Middle East, infinitely more so than privileged white kids on TikTok. They all know that being an Arab Israeli in Israel is a hell of a lot better than being in any of the neighboring countries
Contrary to what everybody is seeing on social media, Israel is not an Apartheid state. Arab Israelis have full legal protection of their civil liberties. Arab Israelis, particularly women, enjoy freedom, economic opportunities, education, and healthcare in ways that are unheard of in neighboring countries, and more and more of them are speaking out against the Hamas narrative.
It is true that this war has economic ramifications for Israel, but even on this front Hamas failed. The Israeli economy has mastered the war-life balance and is already showing signs of future success. Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger went on the record publicly lauding the resiliency of the Israeli economy, and is about to quadruple-down with a $25B infusion into the economy.
Case in point: Elbit’s stock price. What happened on the 31st of October? The whole world saw Israel shoot down a Houthi ICBM from the stratosphere. You know what happened Nov 1st? The whole world called Israel and placed orders for more Israeli tech.
So yeah, Hamas lost. The only thing they “won” is more dead Palestinians that they can use as clickbait to pull heartstrings and purse strings.
Hamas lost the Arab front
Below the surface there have been some interesting activities.
First, all of the Arab countries did not come to bat. Sure, they make grandiose speeches and some fire rockets, but none actually committed themselves to Hamas’ aims. Not even Hizballah and Iran (not yet at least). Instead, the Arab countries are letting Hamas take the fall, ultimately at the expense of Gazan civilians.
Hamas has also caused massive disruptions in the Middle East, disruptions that are causing economic damage to many of the countries in the region.
Take the Houthis for example — the Jihadi sister-wife of Hamas. Their recent provocations in the Gulf of Aden are actually most irksome to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Saudi Arabia exports billions of dollars of refined oil from Yanbu, through the Bab Al-Mandab straight to Asia. Egypt collects over $9B in transfer fees from usage of the Suez Canal, a key source of liquid cash flow. So don’t be surprised if the Houthis suffer a quick blow from another Muslim country.
Cracks are beginning to show in the broader Muslim world. Hamas, ISIS, and all the other Jihadi extremist groups have been slaughtering other Muslims for decades, and people are starting to speak up.
The majority of people across the MENA region want to wake up in the morning and deal with the mundane — send their kids to school, make some money at work, etc… Hamas and Jihadi terrorism has been interrupting progress in the greater MENA region since the day Islam was created.
Raheel Raza and Mohammed Rizwan summarize this point recently in the National Post:
Support for Palestinian cause comes from a fear that if Israel is allowed to exist in peace and security, its democratic values will eventually permeate the region.
Ouch.
Hamas lost on the Global front
Over the last two decades Hamas, and the larger Jihadi terrorist umbrella, have done an excellent job of indoctrinating Western white kids to hate Israel and to hate Western/European Liberal values.
Over the last two decades Hamas, and the larger Jihadi terrorist umbrella, have done an excellent job of indoctrinating Western white kids to hate Israel and to hate Western/European Liberal values.
But Hamas, and the larger Jihadi terrorist umbrella have lost the Global front because that mask is coming off — and more people are becoming aware of the dangers.
The whole world now knows that Hamas actually committed war crimes: Murdering civilians, including children and babies, mass rape, and taking hostages. Even those that deny these things happen know these atrocities actually did happen.
We know now that Jihadi terrorism has been pumping cash to American universities for years.
We know now that Students for Justice in Palestine is a Jihadi death cult, with no interest in Justice and no interest in Palestine except when used as an excuse to let out some violent Anti-Jewish steam.
We know now that SJP is backed by American Muslims for Palestine, which is run by 4 known Hamas operators, most notably Hatem Bazian, lecturer of the Department of Ethnic Studies at UC Berkeley. (side note — AMP is tied to multiple organizations that have taken in donations from Americans and used them to fund Hamas militancy — Bazian is tied to all of them. Go down the rabbit hole if you dare).
The world is becoming acutely aware of the ugly side of Islamic Jihadi extremism — the violence, the brutality, and the lack of respect for basic morality and rule of law, all driven by the desire to establish a global caliphate of Sharia law.
It has spilled over into all corners of the world and it is a global problem.
The harsh truth is that it is not Jews who threaten to attack churches on Christmas.
It is not Jews who attack police in New York or Berlin and burn down cities in “peaceful” protests.
It is not Jews who make bomb threats to elementary schools.
It is not Jews who harass children at a public mall and shout death threats.
It is not Jews who coordinate mass rape on the streets of Cologne.
Jews don’t massacre 200 Christian civilians over Christmas in Nigeria.
Jews don’t ban girls from getting educated beyond sixth grade.
Jews don’t troll the streets shouting to gas or kill other religions.
Jews don’t go on TV to justify child marriage like this guy:
The world is quickly becoming aware of the insidious nature of militant Jihadi extremism, and is starting to take action.
Italy is shutting down Mosques that preach violence and the primacy of Sharia law over civil law.
Years of violence in the streets of the Netherlands (again — not Jews) led to the election of Geert Wilders, who has this to say about Islam:
To many people in Europe, the US, Canada, and elsewhere, Islam has a problem with violence. It has a problem with homophobia. And it definitely has a problem with treatment of women. Every single one of the 54 UN-designated terror organizations is Muslim.
As Jimmie Akesson, leader of Sweden’s 2nd largest political party stated recently:
“We must confiscate and demolish mosques where anti-democratic, anti-Swedish, homophobic and anti-Semitic propaganda is spreading in Swedish society.”
Hamas gave legitimacy for the extreme, violent and militant aspects of Islam to act out. And the world is watching.
Hamas was the catalyst for all of this because they decided to video everything and share it with the world. And now the world is seeing what Jihadi Islamic extremism looks like on their own soil. And for those that still don’t know, Hamas did the world a favor and documented the whole thing, so we will be able to watch in horror for generations to come.
There are many who may see this as Islamophobia. But there is an increasing amount of people out there who question if Islamophobia is even a thing, or just another PR push. Statistically, Islamophobia has actually been decreasing over the last decade.
So what now?
To recap, Hamas launched a war, and now they are subsequently losing a war. Hamas did not “free Palestine”, they did not eliminate the state of Israel from the River to the Sea. All they did was cause the death of thousands of Gazans, which they used as clickbait to fuel a global Antisemitic PR campaign.
But there is no such thing as a free lunch… this came with a steep cost.
Hamas did not get the results they want from Arabs in the West Bank, and certainly not from Arab Israelis. Hamas did not get support from their friends, and left a trail of massive internal upheaval within the Arab world.
Hamas was also the catalyst for violent and insidious protests and criminality by Islamic extremisms all over the world, and also the subsequent blowback.
The vast majority of Muslims are not Jihadi militants, but those that are, like Hamas, are causing irreparable damage to the greater MENA region, to the world, and to the image of Islam as a whole.
The only way out of this is for the Arab world to rise up and rid themselves of their extremist, violent members.
(N.B— why is it that when any Muslim dares to question the given narrative, they are immediately either harassed, issued death threats, or actually killed? Doesn’t that just prove the point that Islam has a problem? In normal countries, issuing death threats lands you in jail. Killing someone who just has a different opinion lands you in jail. In Muslim countries killing someone who just has a different opinion on Islam gets you TikTok followers and a commemorative SJP t-shirt.)

When I was a little boy, ~ 50 years ago, I learned that there must be a two state solution in Israel. In 50 years, I expect my great-grand children to learn that there must be a two state solution in Israel.
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FLERP,
I hope you are wrong.
The Arab nations are not helping Hamas. I think they might want a different order, worth genuine possibility of peace and prosperity.
Israel is not going away.
The endless war will conclude when the Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians, and Qataris decide that it’s over.
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Thank you, Diane. The gloves are finally off here. Would Hamas, given its head, be any less horrible than the Nazis?
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While I cannot defend Hamas or other extremists, I can hope that others could consider what life has been like for the people of Gaza before October 6th. It has been horrible to say the least. I would invite you to read Mornings in Jenin by Susan Abdulhawa and The Lemon Tree by Sandy Tolan.
A while back I read an article about the rite of passage for Palestinian kids in Israeli jails. Why would children throw rocks at Israeli soldiers? Are they all terrorists? They might be after spending time in Israeli jails.
Peace begins when we understand that we are all brothers and sisters.
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If Hamas had spent its tens of millions on the people of Gaza instead of arms, their life would have been far better. After Hamas was elected by a plurality of votes in 2006, why was there never an election? What party gets a 17-year term?
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Yes, he cites random people. But can you say that Hamas has won a great victory? Are the people of Gaza better off? Thousands of innocent people have died, many homes have been reduced to rubble. Hamas expected this response and wanted it. Where are the other Arab nations? They pay lip service. Nothing more.
Only negotiations can end the war. BOTH SIDES ARE LOSING.
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The U.S. government shares blame for the on-going campaigns of ethnic cleaning and genocide taking place. Theft of land continues in the West Bank, too. To a significant degree, Israel is a U.S. military outpost with a flag.
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James, I doubt that Israelis see it that way.
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A few days ago, thousands of protesters surrounded the Knesset demanding early elections. Many Israelis are frustruated with the “war cabinet” and are insisting on implementing democratic reforms that would allow more citizens to take part in the decision-making process. Without U.S. financial and military support, Israel’s government would quickly dissolve.
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At least Kissinger is dead, but his wrongheaded doctrine of keeping the U.S. strong by keeping the third world destabilized and weak is alive. We sell weapons and instigate coups everywhere all the time. Let’s use precise language, however. Ethnic cleaning and genocide are hyperbolic and misleading terms. The U.S. aids murder, assassination, war, and, uh, enhanced interrogation. And Israelis are complicit. They’ve had many chances, especially recently, to vote out Likud and vote in more peaceful parties like Labor and/or Blue&White.
There’s plenty of blame to go ’round. My concern is of not the past, but of the future, of voting out war hawks in every country all over the world. For me personally, that begins in Los Angeles, California. We all have something to do to create stability. Vote liberal.
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How long would the Peace keeping force stay in Gaza. Longer than the 18 months the Marines stayed in Beirut?
Should there be a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza ?. Yes !
Can anyone honestly say they would want to live next to it? I doubt it.
Meanwhile:
“The attacks were planned, coordinated, and executed by RSF and their allied Arab militias,” who “deliberately targeted civilian neighbourhoods, (internally displaced persons) gathering sites and IDP camps, schools, mosques, and hospitals, while looting” homes, non-governmental organizations and UN compounds, the experts wrote.
The RSF and allied militias deliberately targeted the Masalit community, the town’s majority non-Arab ethnic group, they added, saying there were snipers “placed on the main roads that indiscriminately targeted civilians, including women, pregnant women, and youth.”
“More broadly in West Darfur, the experts said, the paramilitaries and their allies “systematically violated international humanitarian law,” with crimes including torture, rape, mass arrests and forced displacement..”
https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/up-to-15-000-dead-in-war-plagued-darfur-town-un-experts-say-804ea8f4
Feathers !!!! So much for World opinion.
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And when missiles are repeatedly lobbed over the border of the Palestinian state into Israel, what should Israel do?
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Israel should end its blockade of Gaza, withdraw from illegally-occupied lands in the West Bank, and implement legislative reforms guaranteeing equal rights for all citizens of the country without regard to religious affiliation… for starters.
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And what should Hamas do?
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James Eales
“For starters” in 2000 Israel offered 97 percent of the West Bank, all of Gaza and a connection between the two. Plus compensation for the 3% of land they would keep. And the right of return to 300k ,the number displaced in 1948.
When shown the deal Saudi Ambassador to the US Prince Bandar said:”Arafat would not only be insane but criminal to reject it ”
Not only did Arafat reject it. HE! started bombing weddings, bus stops and market places.
Which is how we wind up with a sharp turn to the right in Israeli politics. Labor and the left going from a majority 54% in 1999 when they elected Barak a peace now candidate to a mere 4% today .
Than in 2005 Sharon decides on a de facto statehood for Palestine by withdrawing from Gaza and the West Bank and building Walls. He had a stroke and completed very little withdrawal from the West Bank.
After completely withdrawing from Gaza there was no blockade AT ALL, not till 2007 when the people of Gaza chose a terrorist Government dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
We all know your response James would be to allow a Canadian Government that was dedicated to the destruction of the US to get the tools to do it.
If there was no water in Gaza it is because for near 20 years they chose to spend hundreds of millions in aid money and taxes ,if not billions to build a tunnel network twice the length of the London subway (400+ miles). To hide terrorists instead of a desalinization plant. If there was no Electricity it was because they chose to purchase weapons and missiles instead to store in those tunnels and fire 30 thousand of them between 2005 and Oct 6 2023 (the day before Oct7). Instead of Building generating Stations.
The same can be said on the West Bank. Although the actions of Settlers and Right Wing Israeli Governments have been atrocious they are not in a vacuum. Hamas is present on the West Bank and a large percentage of Palestinians killed have been armed militants, again dedicated to the destruction of Israel. Which in turn gives the Israeli right the excuse to expand Settlements taking away Arab properties.
If Netanyahu has committed crimes it was on the West Bank where he undermined the authority of the IDF to discipline troops who violated Palestinian rights and lives . And failed to hold Settlers accountable for attacking innocent Palestinians.
In Gaza every death is on Hamas. You don’t brutally slaughter 1200 people, Kidnap 250 and wound hundreds more and expect your neighbor to not eliminate the threat.
You don’t build your military fortifications under Hospitals, Schools, Homes and Mosques. Then fire from these fortifications and expect the neighbor you attacked to not demolish them.
There have been phony claims of Genocide since day 2 of this war. At 25,000 killed(Hamas’s number) with between 30% and 60% being Hamas fighters or sympathizers. That number is less in over 110 days of heavy fighting, than the week of bombing in Hamburg Germany when Churchill decided to bring the war home to German Civilians for the first time. Operation Gomorrah on July 24th 1943 targeted the population of Hamburg. Out of a population of 750 thousand 40 thousand Civilians were killed mostly in 4 days and nights of bombing.
That is what targeting Civilians looks like not dropping leaflets 10 minutes before announcing a building will be bombed. Nor telling people to evacuate a community. In advance.
Israel must destroy Hamas’s capability to inflict harm and make it so costly that the glory is taken out of wanting to slaughter Jews. Than we can talk about forcing them to relinquish the West Bank and Gaza to a Palestinian State.
Germany was occupied by the allies for 10 years after WW2.
Would the Arab States Occupy Gaza and the West Bank?
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Condemning Hamas without regard to the conditions that created Hamas is like condemning a woman for kicking a man in the balls without regard for the fact that he was trying to strangle her. Even if kicking him in the balls only provokes him and puts her in a worse situation, it’s not okay to condemn her fight for survival unless you have a better idea of what she reasonably could have done better.
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That’s not a hard question, Dienne. Hamas was elected to govern Gaza in 2006. There has not been another election since then. Hamas is dedicated to crushing and eliminating the state of Israel. As governing body, Hamas might have used its authority and revenues to build a functioning society to improve the lives of the people of Gaza. Instead Hamas has spent its revenues on weapons and tunnels.
Israel has an advanced, educated successful society; it does not want to be eliminated. Egypt and Israel have closed their borders to Gazans due to Hamas’ radicalism. After October 7, Hamas’s leaders declared that they would repeat the atrocities of October 7 “again and again.”
What could Hamas done better? It could have given up its irredentist goal of eliminating the state of Israel. It could have spent its revenues on economic development.
The only way the wars will end is when reasonable people join together to agree on a settlement that protects the interests of both sides.
Useful background reading: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas
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It’s pathetic that you think Hamas controls life in Gaza when it’s literally Israel that has maintained a complete embargo on the strip since 2007. Israel controls everything and everyone who comes in and out of Gaza. They control the registry. They control the “security” (sic) forces. They are the ones who constantly harass the Palestinian people, including attacking worshippers in the al Aqsa Mosque in April of 2023 (well before 10/7, I’ll point out), along with beating and killing civilians – children, women, journalists, medics. What do you think Hamas can do about that? Why do you think Hamas did what they did? What would you do if you grew up watching your family and friends constantly belittled, attacked and killed?
And it’s not Hamas that wants to end Israel, it’s Israel that wants to end the Palestinians. They have said so multiple times – check out pages 59-67 of South Africa’s Complaint to the ICJ (https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) to hear Israeli officials in their own words. There have been many more such statements since South Africa filed said complaint. Senior Israeli officials are currently holding a conference about the “voluntary” relocation of the Palestinians.
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Hamas invaded Israel.
Israel responded with overwhelming force, which Hamas expected.
Hamas knew the response to their unspeakable atrocities—which they proudly videotaped—would be devastating to ordinary Gazans. They hoped it would turn into a wider war.
I want peace in the Middle East, not endless wars. You just keep repeating grievances, which justify the cycle of endless wars.
Israel agreed to peace with Arafat in the Oslo Accords. Arafat agreed to recognize Israel. Hamas wants to reclaim all of Israel, eliminate all women’s rights, install Sharia law “from the river to the sea.”
The Saudis are ready to recognize Israel and establish normal relations. So are other Arab nations.
Read the Council on Foreign Relations impartial report.
Your defense of Hamas is a road to endless war. Their grievances will not end until Israel ceases to exist. That’s not going to happen.
Think of how the sides get to peace instead of justifying terrorism.
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LOL. Israel invaded Palestine. In 1948 and again in 1967 and repeatedly since then. They’ve killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and displaced millions more. They’ve also invaded Lebanon and Syria. For a historian, your grasp of history is lacking. Again, I’ll suggest THE HUNDRED YEARS WAR ON PALESTINE by Rashid Khalidi as a good place to start.
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Dienne,
You want Israel to disappear.
It’s not going to.
You have not offered a single positive step that would lead to peace.
You want to relitigate historic grievances. That’s a non-starter.
That’s a path to more killing.
You are parroting Hamas’ line.
Give it up, Dienne.
You will never in a million years persuade me that Israel has no right to exist.
Accept that fact.
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