Gary Rayno of InDepthNH shows how Republican gerrymandering has warped free and fair elections in the state. Its two Senators are Democrats but the state is controlled firmly by Republicans, who redrew the map to make sure that Republicans control the Legislature.
He writes:
The voting is over although the final outcome for control of the House will not be official until the 16 recounts are finished at the end of next week.
The Senate and Executive Council remain firmly in Republican control although the results would have been different had they not been gerrymandering more than they already were 10 years ago.
The redistricting plans approved down party lines for the Senate and Executive Council seats should give Republicans more Senate seats and four safe Executive Council seats for the next decade.
However, the residents of New Hampshire need to be congratulated for setting a non-presidential election year or midterm election record, breaking the one set four years ago….
The voter turnout Tuesday was somewhere near 70 percent of those on the checklist, which the Tuesday before the election had 883,035 names, with 278,681 registered as Democrats, 276,034 as Republicans and 328,320 undeclared….
In the 2018 election, with a greater number of voters on the checklist, the percentage of those who voted was 57.5 percent….
There were several huge issues for Democrats particularly reproductive rights and other fundamental rights like same sex marriage and contraception with the US Supreme Court overturning its earlier Roe Vs Wade decision making abortion a fundamental right.
Another major issue was preserving democracy as it has been in place since the days of Roosevelt’s New Deal, as well as combating misinformation about election frauds and voter suppression.
Republicans focused on the economy and inflation, and what they said was the Democrats’ slide toward socialism and issues like parental rights.
But when the smoke cleared Tuesday night — or almost cleared depending on recounts — Republicans were able to maintain control of the State House from governor to the House, while Democrats had total control of federal offices as they have had for the last six years….
Once again New Hampshire will send Democrats to Washington while Republicans will control the State House.
However, to say Republicans have a mandate would be very misleading as would talk of their policies being popular with New Hampshire voters.
The only clean Republican victory came in the governor’s race where incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Tom Sherman by a sizable margin.
In the Executive Council, state Senate and state House races, Democratic candidates received more votes than their Republican counterparts, but will still be in the minority.
Executive Council
All five current members won reelection to maintain the Republican’s 4-1 majority on the council.
This is the council that has refused to fund health contracts for poor families for Planned Parenthood, because four of the councilors reject a Department of Health and Human Services required report the organization and several others that provide abortion services that segregated state money from the money used to provide abortion services.
They have rejected the contracts a number of times along with once routine contracts to teach sex education to at-risk students in Manchester and Claremont. The same councilors have approved the contracts in the past.
The four Republicans also held up federal money to expand the state’s COVID-19 vaccination programs at a critical time when youngsters were about to receive their first shots and elderly their first boosters causing delays in rolling out those programs according to the commissioner of the Department of Health and Human Services.
Yet when you add the votes for the five Republican executive council candidates the total is 301,743, and the total for the five Democratic candidates is 303,238, a difference of 1,495 in favor of the Democrats.
If the five districts were drawn more fairly, the make up of the council should probably be 3-2 in one or the other party’s favor, not 4-1.
To see how badly gerrymandered the Executive Council is look at the 2nd district, which saw incumbent Democrat Cindi Warmington of Concord beat her Republican challenger, former state Sen. Harold French by 24,679 votes 74,107 to 49,428.
In essence, that result indicates 24,678 Democratic votes are wasted and could have gone elsewhere.
If you add up the margin of victory for the four Republican candidates, it is 23,179, or 1,500 less votes than Warmington won by.
If those 24,679 votes were spread in the other four districts, it would be a very different picture.
No wonder Warmington mentioned the gerrymandering in her statement Tuesday about her victory saying “Our outstanding candidates ran the best races possible, but unfortunately couldn’t overcome the effects of deeply gerrymandered districts.”
State Senate
With the new political boundaries in the Senate, there are fewer competitive seats and what would appear to be a consistent 15-9 or 16-8 partisan breakdown favoring Republicans.
Districts were altered to make Republican held districts safer while concentrating more Democrats into fewer districts with few contested seats….
When the election was over, the partisan breakdown was the same as it has been the last two years, 14 Republicans and 10 Democrats….
The Republican votes were 293,304, while Democrats received 299,327 votes, or a difference of 6,023 votes.
Yet Republicans hold a 14-10 advantage in the Senate and some of their leaders touted their hard work and agenda as the reason for the continued control.
But the real reason is the Senate is gerrymandered in a significant way to pack Democrats into a few districts while increasing the number of districts where Republican registrations outnumbers Democratic registrations…
The current plan is much more restrictive for Democrats and more favorable to Republicans.
In the House, the number of votes for Democratic candidates outnumber those for Republicans candidates as well.
The Democratic candidates received 1,089,577 votes or 50.8 percent and the Republicans 1,055,843 or 49.2 percent.
When determined by the 400 seats, Democratic candidates received 482,192 votes or 52.8 percent while the Republican candidates received 432,039 votes or 47.2 percent, again showing the House was gerrymandered.
The trouble with gerrymandering it does not reflect the will of the majority of voters and currently diminishes the value of Democratic votes versus Republican votes.
Gerrymandering disenfranchises partisan groups and prevents them from having a representative who reflects their interests.
And despite a superior court judge ruling there is nothing in law or the state constitution that makes partisan gerrymandering illegal, it truly is minority rule.
And with the state’s gerrymandered districts, it is difficult to see how the current plans adhere to the state constitution’s “free and fair elections” clause.
While it is clear the Republicans gave themselves a significant advantage in redrawing the state’s political boundaries, it should be noted Sununu vetoed two bills that had bipartisan agreement in 2019 and 2020 that would have created an independent redistricting commission to redraw the maps.
The legislature would have had to give final approval.
But the state’s “blue wave” in last week’s election would have been more apparent if an independent commission had drawn the political boundaries instead of special committees controlled by Republicans.
And the results will be apparent for the next two years if not the rest of the decade.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.
My first thought was: Do the Democrats also resort to gerrymandering, so I Google it.
And I’m reporting the answer is YES, and I approve, because the Democrats have no choice but to fight fire with fire.
“… The main reason is gerrymandering — redrawing of district lines for partisan benefit. Republicans built on their existing gerrymanders to try to expand their House advantage, but Democrats fired back even more powerfully with gerrymanders of their own.
“Basically, Democrats saved themselves by resorting to a tactic they’ve previously denounced as not only unfair but downright unethical — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called gerrymandering “unjust and deeply dangerous” in 2019. But in the absence of national reforms banning the practice, refusing to gerrymander would have meant effective unilateral disarmament, ceding the GOP a significant advantage in the battle for control over the House.
”Redistricting has proceeded like a tug of war. As state legislatures, judges, and commissions have approved new maps, creating more safe or swing districts in various states, the underlying partisanship of the median House district has been pulled in one direction, and then the other. The most powerful pulls came from either state legislatures that gerrymandered, or state courts that struck down certain gerrymandered maps, as this graphic shows:”
You have to click the next link to see the graphic:
https://www.vox.com/22961590/redistricting-gerrymandering-house-2022-midterms
And I also learned that Gerrymandering wasn’t invented by the two major political parties we have today. It was invented by one of the founding fathers.
Drum roll please. The father of Gerrymandering was: Which founding father invented gerrymandering?
Elbridge Thomas Gerry, born July 17, 1744 Marblehead, Province of Massachusetts Bay, British America. After British America because the United States he belonged to (don’t laugh) the Democratic-Republican Party. He died November 23, 1814 (aged 70) Washington, D.C., U.S.
The father of Gerrymandering was also the 5th VP of the U.S.
And right now the Democrats have an advantage for the next two years because they control the Senate where federal judges appointed by the president are approved.
I read yesterday (don’t remember the source) that Biden has now appointed about the same number of federal judges Traitor Trump did during his term squatting in the White House eating fast food, drinking diet soda, insulting dead people and Gold Star families, encouraging violence and racism across America, and profiting from the public dollar while playing golf scheming on the course. If one of the current Supreme Court Judges dies, retires or is impeached thanks to his wife who supported and schemed before and after the January 6th failed violent coup attempt, it will be President Biden who appointed the replacement and the Democratically controlled Senate that votes to approve that replacement.
Hi, I do not know if this will reach you. This is a voice from the past.I have retired from NYU and am publishing a book on desegregation. Would it be too much to chat by text?See my text number below
Hi, Laruth,
No text number on my end.
New Hampshire house goes Democratic
Republican Larry Gagne of Hillsborough 16 House District, who was first elected in 2008, was defeated in a recount by Democrat Maxine Mosely, a retired school counselor and first-time candidate for political office.
The final tally that was certified by Secretary of State David Scanlan (R) was 1,799 to 1,798. Hillborough 16’s second seat was won by Republican Will Infantine.
There will be a recount, fingers crossed.
Sorry for the confusion due to differing details from different news sources. The recount is done but there will be an appeal to the Ballot Law Commission after the recount according to CBS News.
Wonderful!!!
The Extreme Court just ruled, in Merrill v. Milligan, that federal courts cannot set aside district maps that they have determined to be gerrymandered. The point of their being able to, which was the previous precedent, was that gerrymandered districts undo the democratic principle that each vote should be at least roughly equal in weight. Forget that. This court is fine with the idea that a rich white cis guy’s vote is worth more than are the votes of other people.
What are Batman’s superpowers? He’s male, he’s white, he’s cis, he’s straight, and most importantly, he is rich.
And speaking of beings straight, Trump is a relic from the era when large numbers of gay and bisexual and otherwise oriented people stayed in the closet, and many were self-loathing. Have you ever noticed that the Trump Rally Playlist is like the Self-loathing Boomer Gay Guy’s Hit Parade? Lots of Village People and Elton John, with a few narcissistic anthems (“My Way,” “Burning Love”) and hayseed patriotic anthems (“Proud to Be an American”) thrown in. And, of course, Trump is fond of saying how much he LOVES women at the same time that he has a history of abusing them and preying upon them, and his great mentor in the political con game was Roy Cohn, a closeted troglodyte flim-flam man and fixer.
There is something particularly cringy about hearing “Hunk-a hunk-a burnin’ love” at a Trump rally. Ewwwww.
Ewwwww is right, Bob. Did this really happen? On second thought, don’t tell me, as knowing this will almost certainly have an emetic effect on me.
It’s part of his standard rally set list, which includes “Macho Man,” “Goodbye Yellow Brick Road,” “YMCA,” “Tiny Dancer,” “Live and Let Die,” “Fortunate Son,” “Rocket Man,” “Don’t Stop Believing.” I’ve always wondered why he didn’t include “It’s My Party and I’ll Cry If I Want To,”
And yeah, ‘Burning Love” was part of the intro set list for his announcement.
Meanwhile, pile of discarded skin cells and dandruff held together by wood glue Rupert Murdoch has let The Idiot know that the free ride is over because Ron.
Hahahahaha! Thanks Bob. I came close, but I didn’t hurl.
But Trump did have at his announcement the largest and most bored crowd in the history of crowds!
WONDEFUL! Thanks for sharing this, Jon!
In the final paragraph of Awbrey’s linked article, there’s identification of a specific 538 blunder. 538’s Nate Silver is from the University of Chicago’s economics dept. – expected hubris.
A second point- Tennessee was the first state mentioned in the article. Recently reported by various media- Tennessee lawmakers can be heard in a video discussing the political necessity of delaying the introduction of legislation against IVF and birth control.
Thank you for shining a spotlight on our little corner of the country. New Hampshire Republicans have quietly mastered what Illinois Democrats were always accused of.
This post points out one big reason for my anxiety. Living in Ohio, gerrymandering is as bad or worse here. As any of you who live in states with republican state house majorities can attest. [Question for my Ohio sisters and brothers: Given the results of the elections of the past 12 years and realistically assessing the future, given the fact that nothing will change the republican majority for the foreseeable future, how long until Ohio’s public education system is dead and gone? Five, ten, fifteen, twenty years? I’m putting my money on ten.]
But here’s a reality check that should give us all cause to check our drawers. It is likely that republicans got at least 5 million votes more than Dems in the aggregate of House races. And the House was just called for reps. Let’s see how differently a really small majority conducts its business as compared to having a substantial majority. Hint: not at all.
Dems should pat themselves on the back right now, because a President DeSantis with a stronger House majority combined with a Senate majority is closer than it’s ever been. I’m putting my money on the Dems screwing up its messaging royally in the next two years to make the job easier for them. And education will be the Achilles heel that they will be unable to escape.
[I’m also betting the next two years will demonstrate how timid Rosa DeLauro was when she had some power and influence in the past two years. Something she no longer has.]
Dems should not pat… Oy!
Paul Gosar, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, and the whole crew of maniacs will be strutting around like they own the place. Too disgusting to contemplate.
The Jan 6th committee is gone and impeach Biden is upcoming. To vomit.
The House GOP will be very busy for the next two years with investigations of Hunter Biden, impeaching Joe Biden, etc.
Lauren Boebert’s ahead but the vote is close and undecided.
McCarthy has promised to restore Marjorie Taylor Greene to whatever committees she wants. Intelligence? Foreign Relations?
I think Greene at hearings with knowledgable witnesses will provide moments of perpetual political humor and Shadenfreude-esque cringeworthy moments. If only it weren’t in such serious circumstances.
Two things you can count on with House republican agenda in coming Congress:
All policy and political decisions will be made on an “owning the libs” scale, not on public priorities.
Persecute Dr. Fauci for political fictions. This may well become one of the ugliest episodes of the the past decade. And that’s saying something!
Yes, definitely put Dr. Fauci on trial. The Scopes trial revisited.
What happened to Live Free or Die? I guess now it’s Live Free or Not, Whatever You Aristocrats Say.
The outcome of fair districts (incomplete)-
538 reports, “For the first time in years, more Americans will live in a state fully controlled by Dems than in one fully controlled by Republicans.” Various states are used for illustration in the article.