The Washington Post reports that schools have reopened safely in Germany, with no major outbreaks of coronavirus—yet. The key to success is the rate of transmission in the community. Or so it seems. With this virus, you can never be certain of future behavior. The difference in the U.S. is that some states are making no effort to control the virus, not even mandating mask-wearing. Trump has unfortunately encouraged and modeled anti-social behavior.
When the community is safe, the schools are likely to be safe.
It’s been a month since German children began to lead Europe in the post-summer return to school, streaming back into classrooms and onto playgrounds, with little aside from masks to differentiate the scene from pre-coronavirus times.
So far, epidemiologists are cautiously optimistic. The school openings have been accompanied by some panicked closures and quarantines.
In the first week, there were 31 clusters — amounting to 150 cases — of the novel coronavirus in schools, according to Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI). At least 41 schools in Berlin were reported to have been affected in the first two weeks.
But there have been few transmissions within schools themselves, health experts say, and although the number of new daily cases in Germany has been rising, schools haven’t been identified as a driver of infections.
“It’s looking promising,” said Johannes Huebner, president of the German Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases. “There have not been any major outbreaks yet. Single cases, but they seem to be manageable.”
While Germany’s full-throttle return to class may provide some assurance for those fretting about school returns in the United States and elsewhere, health experts note that it’s still just the early days — and they warn about extrapolating too much. They say the risk associated with reopenings has a lot to do with the levels of the virus circulating in a community.
“The important thing is you have to keep the number in the community low,” said Huebner, who is also head of the infectious-disease department at Munich’s Dr. von Hauner Children’s Hospital. “This is where the United States will have problems.”
Despite a rise in infections that Germany’s RKI said “must be taken seriously,” the 1,484 new cases reported Friday among the country’s population of 83 million compare with at least 37,876 new cases in the latest U.S. report — more than 25 times as many infections in a population just four times as large.
People have free will. Unless those states behave like China (legally they can’t), I wonder how they minimize COVID-19.
🤔😮
I’m a little jealous that they have a functioning country. I understand it’s much smaller, but still.
It seems like this huge and hugely wealthy country could have managed to get something done for 50 million public school children other than dumping the whole thing on public schools and then employing 5000 experts to offer criticism of what the schools did or didn’t manage without any assistance at all.
They moved heaven and earth to keep the stock market numbers up. No one lifted a finger for public schools. That’s our values.
I guess, Germany is more pragmatic than the US. Germany had to learn from World Wars I & II, The Holocaust and Communism. West Germany had to absorb East Germany. Germany has been humbled by history, unlike the US. 😐🤔
It’s a much smaller country, but has significantly greater population density. Germany has more than 83 million people on about 137,847 square miles. The US has about 329 million people on 3,791,400 square miles. Another way to look at it is that Germany has more than twice the population on about 85% of the size of California.
For other geographical comparisons, check out this website (really fun for geography geeks!). Hit “clear map,” type in Germany, when it highlights, drag it over to the U.S. to get a sense of size.
https://thetruesize.com
Pretty neat! Thanks!
A summation which tells the entire story.
Here’s the federal government’s response to the pandemic/schools:
“Secretary Betsy DeVos
Sacred Heart, part of dogrschools
,is open in Grand Rapids & serving students in person & at home. All students in MI deserve an in-person option. Sacred Heart shows it can be done!”
We’re paying thousands of professional, full time, public school critics who spend their workdays promoting private schools.
It’s just jaw dropping. No positive or productive effort at all. They see their role as opponents of our childrens schools. And we’re paying them for this! The entire “work product” consists of attacks on public schools and promotion and marketing of private schools.
We have to bust up this echo chamber. It’s a huge waste of money, for one thing.
It may also help to have a scientist leading the country instead of an anti-science con artist.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/former-israeli-coronavirus-task-force-chairman-it-seemed-safe-to-reopen-schools-but-then-came-the-outbreaks-2020-09-01
In addition to not having adults who model the recommended precautions, we also have a President who appoints people who are hell-bent on screwing up data collection on the virus. We have a compromised reporting system that prevents trustworthy knowledge of community spread and “hot spots.” The less data the happier Trumpsters are. As far as know there is no national data base on infections that turn up in schools, and who is infected, number of adults and students by age/grade levels–at minimum.
It’s not just adults ignoring COVID-19. There are rich and inner city teenagers/young adults have house parties too, where some give prizes for catching corona and some have partiers cough on each other. 😮🤔
“The key to success is the rate of transmission in the community. Or so it seems. With this virus, you can never be certain of future behavior.”
Yes, that’s key. Or, speed of spread, as I put it. It’s key because it holds the opportunity to continually unlock learning ahead of coronavirus, with the aim of keeping more and more of it from spreading.
Unfortunately, Georgia guidance to school districts for re-opening schools is based on the level of spread, which is to be considered at the time of deciding whether or not to re-open schools. It’s as if the state’s belief is that coronavirus will remain at the same fixed, unchanging level after having decided on re-opening.
Yes, too, one cannot be certain of COVID-19 future behavior but one can rationally predict its future behavior, within limits, for at least the short term, and with the chance of being wrong, by—need I say it?—Deming, complemented by Wheeler, Donald J. My latest, with prediction of Georgia COVID-19 behavior since eight days ago and there’s no evidence, yet, that the prediction will be wrong for each of the coming days.
https://mailchi.mp/6c06bc8dda7f/second-successive-sustained-drop-in-covid-19-daily-numbers-of-new-cases