The blog poet makes the assertion that economists are like weathermen, but in this case, I disagree respectfully. Economists of education express a certainty that no weatherman would. Weathermen (meteorologists) give you different scenarios, warn you that the track of the storm might shift, recognize that there are many uncertainties. Economists of education (not all of them! Think Helen Ladd of Duke) claim that they can use test scores to measure teacher effectiveness, and that they have taken all contingencies into account. Hundreds, probably thousands, of educators have lost their careers because of the specious claims of economists like Raj Chetty, who assert that they can judge the value-added of teachers by the test scores of their students, that third-grade teachers affect the life-time earnings of their students, and that teachers who don’t hit arbitrary test scores marks should be fired, sooner rather than later.
“Economists are like weathermen”
Economists are like weathermen
This cannot be denied
Cuz if, by chance, they get it right
It’s greatly AMPLIFIED!!
But mostly, they just get it wrong
And utter not a word
For them to actually point this out
Would really be unheard
And when their goof’s so blatant
They really can’t ignore it
They simply claim they found a “flaw”
But “markets” will restore it
Diane Ravitch's blog 
I think it is time to discuss the markets will restore it angle. They will. But at what cost to humanity?
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“. . . the markets will restore it again.”
To me the most obviously false assumption made by economists is that there is a “market”, preferably a free one, no commies need apply, that does anything.
How can a description of human interactions, supposedly in the domain of economics, actually “do” anything??? That is an absurd proposition on the face of it. It is individual human beings that make decisions and do things in a market. The market, by definition, cannot do anything. (Where’s TE when ya need him?)
By making it seem that “markets do this or that” it takes the blame for the actions that are taken off of the individual humans that do the actual work/interaction. In doing so, in eliminating the very human element it serves to justify very horrible actions and consequences for many people. “OH, the market will determine whether something is viable”. Bullshit!
Until we quit using the vocabulary of economists’ excuses for harmful human actions, we, as a society, will continue to allow abominations and atrocities to continue unabatedly.
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There is a market but no market is free . The simple definition of economics, I was given in my first Political Science course in 72 was written by Harold Laswell in 1936. Over 30 Years later the AP economics book my son brought home had the same definition on page one.
” Economics is who gets what ” “Politics is who decides who gets what.”
” Economics Who Gets What When and How” Laswell 1936.
Politics/ Governance has and will always ensure that there will never be a free market. Someone will always be making the decision as to who receives the fruits of production.
Our libertarian tech wizards the most vociferous promoters of free markets,are the new robber barons of the 21st century.They are the most protectionist hypocrites on the planet. They benefit from patent protections that ensure their massive wealth. While there is good evidence that these anti-market restrictions hurt new research which could be public funded for a fraction of the cost. . In addition what do trade agreements that protect their intellectual property, have to do with free markets. How is making people in India or America pay more for drugs make markets free of government meddling . They berate any protections for the workers, who actually created their wealth. While they seek Government enforcement to protect their patents. Their products would cost a small fraction of what they do,including life saving drugs, without the visible hand of the government they have purchase.
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While I do agree with what you have said in the post, no, there is no market, per se, as is used by economists. It is a descriptive term not an actual place or thing. And that is THE fundamental flaw in economists thinking that has bamboozled many into believing that “markets can do something”. They can’t. The NYSE can be considered a market but it is not the exchange that does the buying and selling, but the humans that take part in that exchange. It is individual humans interacting. We can label that interaction as “the market”, but to imply anything else is an onto-epistemological falsehood. And again, I believe that falsehood is used to perpetuate as valid those things that you have mentioned in your post.
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Duane E Swacker
Some misguided (phony)economists try to peddle the myth that markets are rational and if individuals were just left to interact in these markets a state of nirvana will have been reached . Of course they only take those positions when they stand to benefit from that philosophy. The numerous financial bailouts since the 80s being proof of their hypocrisy. Their legislative agenda which steers government subsidies to corporate America while decimating the ability of workers to organize a resistance to their greed more hypocrisy. Patent protection and trade agreements designed by plutocrats yet another proof. Agreements which protect corporate profits but not worker or consumer rights are not free market trade agreements. They are examples of the repressive nature of oligarchy .
Since the days of the caveman in fact since the days of the social primates , even in baboon packs, someone has always decided how the resources will be distributed , economics is the distribution of goods and services. There never have been nor will there ever be free markets . Someone will always be deciding how those resources are distributed and that is politics . Any discussion of economics which ignores this dynamic is B.S.
The attempts to use economic models in education are a fraud . Again how can a profession that could barely see a housing bubble of “biblical proportions” claim to be able to predict through economic modelling the outcomes in education. Outcomes which are caused by complex social problems with their own economic roots. Economists can detail effects far better than they can determine causality or predict results.
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I disagree with both of you (respectfully of course :)! Diane you state, “Economists of education (not all of them! Think Helen Ladd of Duke) claim that they can use test scores to measure teacher effectiveness, and that they have taken all contingencies into account. Hundreds, probably thousands, of educators have lost their careers because of the specious claims of economists…”
While I agree that thousands of educators have lost their careers due to VAM, I believe that the very first motive in arguing these claims is more about cost-cutting and profit for businesses centered around education… DEFINITELY FIRST AND FOREMOST. The whole VAM thing is just a way of “snow-jobbing” the public into believing this data is infallible so that cost cutting measures can be implemented off the backs of veteran teachers. These teachers earn higher salaries and have more costly benefits like pensions. With each passing teacher contract, the benefits are reduced and the new teachers become a cost-saving measure. All strategies center around profit. VAM… just a convenient rationale and those doing the cost-cutting can always find some “scholar” who can publish and get a name for himself/herself by jumping on the “corporate ed reform gravy train”!!!!
Gosh there are so many “gravy trains” to catch in the corporate “ed reform tran$portation” world!!!
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You are right Art. EVERYBODY is replaceable at a cheaper price.
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Let’s not lose ourselves. Everybody is replaceable only at a price – the price, here, is quality.
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They claimed they could use a formula to predict test scores, and that any difference between the actual and predicted score was caused by the teacher. That’s like using a formula to predict the scores of baseball games and claiming that any wrong predictions were caused by the first base coaches. It’s like gambling and blaming your losses on, well, anyone but yourself.
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It is like predicting the weather, Poet, and blaming a tornado on farmers. It is like predicting stock market turns and blaming a recession on teachers. Oh wait, they actually did that.
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If tornadoes are not actually caused by farmers, then why do they almost always happen in places like Kansas where there are lots of farms?
Explain me that, smarty pants.
Haven’t you ever seen the Wizard of Oz?
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Everyone knows tornadoes are caused by liberals. And The Wizard of Oz? That’s a straw man argument. Maybe a tin man argument. Lemme tell you something, snake oil salesmen/wizards behind curtains are not that friendly. They call themselves philanthropists, but they’re really after return on investment. And if that movie was accurate, why are Eva and Betsy still around? One was dropped by a falling house and the other was melting, melting!
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Now, you have me Rheely confused.
I thought Michelle Rhee was the Wicked Witch of the West and Betsy was just one of her flying monkeys.
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Sorry, I forgot about the broom.
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Excellent examples, LCT! Thanks, I’m going to use them if you don’t mind!
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Happy to contribute, Duane.
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Thanks to all for a good posting and an even better thread.
Another example of mathematical intimidation that is aimed at getting people to stop thinking and just accept what they’ve been told.
That way the methods, assumptions, values and goals underlying the supposedly objective formulae aren’t made plain and subject to the kind of discussion that would eviscerate the claims of corporate education reform in all its various hues, shapes and pretensions.
You know, like taking one’s students from the 13th to the 90th percentile.
Rheeally!
Anyone for a 100% charter school graduation rate?
😎
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Author Tim Egan- the dogma of “a free market, so revered…that a million Irish were allowed to die of starvation.”
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Speaking of lifetime earnings (and predicting same), how do these “economists” predict lifetime value of tomorrow’s best priests* from amongst a classroom of today’s youngsters? *rabbis, ministers, other “men (women) of the cloth”
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By weatherman, what I was actually referring to are the people who hype coming snow storms on the TV. That was a specific response to a “prediction” of 18 inches of snow and blizzard conditions where I live, when what we actually got was 3 inches. That was not the first time this has happened either. The TV weathermen hype storms like crazy.
I would also draw a distinction between weathermen (and women) and meteorologists.
While some weathermen are meteorologists, many are not.
And while meteorologists might tell you the uncertainty of their prediction, weathermen usually don’t — and what is worse, the latter would have you believe they are much more certain than is justified.
“Much more certain than is justified” is a perfect description for economists.
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“The Whethermen”
Whether VAM or whether test
Economists are simply best
Predicting whether schools will fail
Like weathermen, predicting hail
When all we got is sunny skies
And cloudless days with butterflies
Economist in perfect form
Can conjure up a perfect storm
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🙂
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See the Baker article I posted. By the way the Meteorologists have been far more accurate than the Economists. Your NY North Easter did not turn into a 90 degree beach day. you got rain while the Poconos got clobbered . Where as only in economics can the vast majority of bought and paid for corporate lackeys miss a housing bubble “of biblical proportions” and the financial collapse that followed. Of course their were some long before the great Roubini who saw it coming including Schiller , Baker and Stephen Roach who in 2004 warned about what he called economic Armageddon nailing the events that would happen as soon as interest rates rose. As well as several others who were not just cheer leading for Wall Street.
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edit button their = there were and a half dozen periods and commas
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For what it’s worth, the poem was originally titled “Economists are like psychics”.
Maybe I should not have produced a modified version to immortalized the “Blizzard of 2016″.
I used to live in Salt Lake City, where it was pretty common to get storms that dumped 3 feet of snow in a short time, so maybe that is why I am less than wowed by blizzards of 3”.
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With global warming, those storms in Utah are much less frequent, SDP. We barely have winter here anymore. The kids were freaked out when, this past winter, we had about five weeks of temperatures in the 20s. What I explained to them is that, when I was a kid, those kinds of winters were typical. Our winters have been so mild the past 15 years or so that the kids are upset by a more typical winter.
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Big week coming up for ed reform:
https://www.the74million.org/article/vouchers-could-be-the-big-winner-in-trumps-school-choice-plan-but-is-that-a-victory-for-students?utm_source=The+74+Million+Newsletter&utm_campaign=53d4c0a73e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_11_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_077b986842-53d4c0a73e-49030661http://ampr.gs/2mYCIgM
The federal government is rolling out their big charter/voucher program.
Nothing but budget cuts for public schools, though.
How is it acceptable that these people who supposedly work for everyone managed to omit the 90% of children in US public schools? Do they not occasionally DRIVE BY a public school? Are the unaware of the existence of public schools?
Ridiculous. 500-some members of Congress, thousands of people in the executive branch, and they deliberately exclude 90% of US students.
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I hope protests follow their “big” announcement.
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I worry about this– that protests won’t follow, I mean. Public education seems so off-the-radar for so many. Even the most provocative huffpost ed articles get just a handful of comments (if any).
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Don’t get me started. The creep of econometric thinking into education has gone beyond reason, and the reason is this: Economists are addicted to scores on tests as indicators of anything that catches their fancy–school quality, teacher quality, instructional quality, cognitive skills, worker skills, state ranking in economic growth, national ranks in productivity, the fate of the nation’s economy.
On March 9, 2017, The Wall Street Journal published an Op Ed by economist Eric A. Hanushek titled “American Teachers Unions Oppose Innovative Schools—in Africa with the subtitle “Bridge Academies show promising results in Kenya and Uganda, but unions see them only as a threat.”
It begins “No longer content to oppose educational innovation at home, the unions representing America’s teachers have gone abroad in search of monsters to slay.
For nearly a decade, Bridge International Academies has run a chain of successful private schools in the slums of Kenya and Uganda. A for-profit company, Bridge has shown that it’s possible to provide high-quality, low-cost primary education to poor children in the developing world….” https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-teachers-unions-oppose-innovative-schoolsin-africa-1489099360
Readers are at least informed that Dr. Hanushek s a consultant for Bridge International Academies. The WSJ is an advertorial for Bridge, well place to attract even more investors to this not so low cost system of education with all questions and answers delivered on computers.
Hanushek has been VAMing teachers since his dissertation, about 1968. He is a frequent contributor of dubious statistics to legal cases that blame teacher unions for students who are “underperforming.” Like Chetty he is a serial publisher of inferences about the fate of the economy based on student test scores.
I do not doubt that he and many economists are well-trained statisticians, but if economists who pontificate about schools could not rely on test scores as the coin of their realm, they would probably be out of the education business business.
Here is a sample of the amazing inferences that can be made when you rely only on formulas to think about schools. Quote:
“Our primary analysis relies on these estimates of skills for students educated in each of the states. Minnesota, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Montana, and Vermont make up the top five states, whereas Hawaii, New Mexico, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi constitute the bottom five states. The top-performing state (Minnesota) surpasses the bottom-performing state (Mississippi) by 0.87 standard deviations.
Various analyses suggest that the average learning gain from one grade to the next is roughly between one-quarter and one-third of a standard deviation in test scores (Hanushek, Peterson, and Woessmann (2013), p. 72).
Thus, the average eighth-grade math achievement difference between the top- and the bottom-performing state amounts to about three grade-level equivalents – highlighting the problem of relying exclusively on school attainment without regard to quality. ”
From Hanushek, Eric A., Paul E. Peterson, and Ludger Woessmann. 2013. Endangering prosperity: A global view of the American school. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
These three economists are also responsible for the use of standard deviations to assert that this or that intervention or comparison of schools yield a gain of “days of learning,” or months, or years. Those inferential leaps are really absurd.
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Hanushek is just a sore loser who obviously does not appreciate irony
“No longer content to impose educational “innovation” at home, “reformers” have gone abroad in search of teachers to slay”
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Yuh, exactly what I was thinking. Pot calls kettle black.
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My favorite economist Dean Baker, on what he has called “the wrongest profession”.
http://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-wrongest-profession-baker
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I like Dean Baker too, but he is an extreme outlier swimming against the tide in a sea of outliars.
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You beat me to that response . I just referred you to the article . He is not alone , but is in a minority.
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Common-sense factual anaysis is indeed an outier these days!
Thanks for the link to an excellent article, JoelHerman.
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Economics are one of my hobbies. I study the late nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, and Adam Smith (the father of modern economics). I also read George Gilder, and Hayek. The former senator form Tennessee, Howard Baker, once said: “Economists all should be one-armed. That way, they cannot say “On the other hand”.
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Charles, you read only rightwing economists. That is a flaw.
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I read other economic theorists, as well. When I said that I read Friedman, Hayek, etc. I should have said, that I read Friedman, Hayek, and others. I enjoy the writings of the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan, although not an economist, he was a brilliant man, and very prescient.
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Perhaps Hayek or Friedman could explain why the fastest growing economy on the planet is a managed economy. We could have a seance. Or perhaps you might try reading “23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism” by Ha-Joon Chang
When your done you might want to read “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” by Thomas Piketty.
Being dead does not make your work more or less valid.
Now besides missing the Housing bubble, what most right wing economists have been preaching since the early 1980s is the collapse of the economy due to our national debt. Rampant inflation and stagflation caused by our entitlements or as many like to say earned benefits and social programs . The debt fairy is as real as Santa Claus.
So here is a good question for you Charles as you like to dabble in economics . How does employment compare in the US of A to those namby-pamby French .
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I lived in Paris for one year. I think the French are a bunch of cheese-eating surrender monkeys. France is not a “has-been” country. It is a “never-was” country.
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I see Charles wnen one knows nothing about the subject they claim is their hobby they get snarky instead .
The question was about the French economy which most Americans think is weak with an unemployment rate of 10% . However there are statistics and damn statistics. For the EPOP of prime age workers 24-55 in France is significantly higher, 7% higher than in the great USA . There are 6 measures of unemployment . delivered by BLS but perhaps the EPOP gives a truer picture of the economy. There are 1.7% fewer Americans in the eligible working population working today than there were in 2007 , 3% fewer than in 2000 when economists generally admit incomes were growing . This would explain the level of economic insecurity in the real economy that lead to the election of the Orange haired ass . If one broadens the category to 15 to 65 year old’s the countries are statistically equal. Perhaps a reflection of the fact that the French are staying in school with almost free public universities and retiring earlier with a strong national pension system that has compulsory private supplement as well. Viva la French fries.
Yet the French who have been the focal point of “radical Islamic terror” in the Western World, seem to to have rejected right wing demagogic morons by an overwhelming majority . As did New Yorker’s who actually experienced terror attacks, unlike those in South Carolina who saw terrorism as the number one issue. Not even ISIS wants to go to SC where the economy is too weak. In fact it is difficult to find a state that is dominated by right wing economic philosophy that is economically viable . Most are on the Federal dole.
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edit lead out/ led in
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Charles: having read your comments here, and recognizing a scholarly approach to your thinking, I wish to beg you to pause in mid tirade. I hope you realize that your have just committed the fallacy of generalization where the French are concerned. There are millions of different French people. There have been hundreds of French attitudes in history, some of which saw all of Europe banding together to defeat French aggression the way countries banded together to defeat German aggression under Hitler.
As for the practice of sitting around talking and eating bread and cheese at a meal, if this is sin, I must spend eternity in hell with the French or throw myself at the mercy of an understanding God.
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Roy Turrentine
I just returned from two weeks in Spain. If sitting around and eating with friends and family is a weakness , bring it on.
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Charles, your disdain for cultures other than your own is disgusting. How ethnocentric can you get? Are you so blind to the fact that other cultures have great, fulfilling lives, even though they’re not Americans? You need to take my 9th grade geography class. As I tell my students over and over, “different” doesn’t mean “wrong.” You wouldn’t last five minutes in my very diverse classroom. The kids would hand you your head with comments like that.
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@ Threatened: I have lived in foreign countries for over 16 (sixteen) years. My first wife was Chinese, and I am currently married to a Russian (both US citizens). I was in the Diplomatic Service, US State Department. I do not “disdain” other cultures. I speak French, German, Russian, and Portuguese.
I eat cheese, myself.
I have very little use for the French. 100 years ago, the French army was in mutiny, and the US expeditionary force went to France, and saved France, and possibly Western civilization. In 1944, the US Army landed at Normandy beach, and saved the French a second time. (The French Army surrendered to the Nazis in 1940).
I have been in combat (as a civilian in Iraq). I went through the Mozambican civil war in 1984-1986.
I think I could handle a bunch of 9th graders.
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Charles,
Your encyclopedic knowledge of everything is astounding.
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Charles, so Lafayette & co get no cred w/you? I think their aid to our revolution was worth at least 2 rescue efforts. Also would quibble w/your depiction of the mutinies: Pétain, & the Brits at Ypres were also part of the solution. Also your broad-brush of the French WWII surrender is w/o nuance, particularly regarding the massing of German Panzers [a relatively new weapon, & a novel deployment] at a position far south of that anticipated– & the timing of France’s surrender allowed it to maintain resistance in the south. Face it: France held out as long or longer than similar populations like Poland or Yugoslavia/Greece.
How different things might have been had the Americans recognized the world threat earlier, not catered to isolationists & entered the European war w/o waiting for direct attack/ Pearl Harbor!
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@ Diane, Is that sarcasm? or a compliment? I do not have an encyclopedic knowledge of everything, but when I latch on to a topic, I try to learn what I can.
I have many talents. I am a qualified sign language interpreter, and I can make all four regional cuisines of Chinese food (Hunan, Szechuan, Mandarin, and Cantonese).
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A lot of ex-military think they can handle 9th graders. Almost always, it’s a disaster. Military types aren’t generally used to the free spirit teenagers who don’t have to take orders and who can’t be removed. And there are kids in special education and English language learners, and sensitive kids, and complaining parents.
I did not know your background. I am sorry that I misjudged you. I was just disturbed at your comments. I wouldn’t allow that sort of thing in my classroom, regardless of the person’s background or experience.
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@Threatened, Apology accepted, but not necessary. I have never had to face a room full of 9th graders. I would probably be too terrified to speak. There is saying about walking in the other man’s moccassins.
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Given that this thread is about economists, it’s worth pointing out that one of the few economists who actually behaves like a scientist, viewing the world as it is and not through rose colored ” free-market” glasses – Thomas Piketty — is French.
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“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrologers look respectable”
John Kenneth Galbraith
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The profiteers and privateers all pray to the same deity…
In VAM, in Danielson, in Charters, and in conspiratorial Governors, Senators, and Representatives, collaborators on both sides of the aisle…in their warped paths toward achieving [stealing] their own American Dream…while undermining the youth of our nation…and the professional,educators who shape their lives…
…In Dow We Trust!
It’s Cradle to Grave for everyone else.
The identity of the 21st Century Robber Barons…cities built on labor…the gold poured over the backs of the American people. A graveyard of American potential, built for a quick gain.
Just ask Jeb Bush…a new co-owner of the Miami Marlins…millions of dollars profit multiplied by 162 games per year. Why gas your own car, when laws are passed for others less powerful, are blindly channeled to “pick up the tab”.
The people of Florida should boycott every Marlins game!
A billionaires checkbook, a privatization figurehead, and a legislators pen…an orgasmic free-for-all for public dollars…it’s a fraction poured back in to the media to brainwash the people. Thus, a small, miniscule investment for a hefty gain.
Business as usual…why work when bank accounts can finance ventures, and others can do it for you?
On Saturdays and Sundays, the profiteers and privatizers will be back in their respective houses of worship asking for forgiveness, and on Monday morning they will be back following financial markets, crying “buy” or “sell”.
A Success Academy of Dollars, a Common drive to the Core of getting wealthy.
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Cannibalism is what you’re describing. The rich feeding off of the taxes of the middle/ working/ poor classes. Charterism/ voucherism is a microcosm, same paradigm.
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I would surely feel much more comfortable with a SomeDAM Poet-based economy than what we have now. Wisdom is what we’d get.
Actually, I just went and looked up the word “wisdom”. (God, it’s been a long 120 days!) I actually need to remind myself just what that word wisdom truly means. Like a cool glass of pure, clear water, It still does exist.
As opposed to the putrid, stinking, moronic morass that is being created by Donald Trump and his enablers: Trump’s gimcrack, casino-based economy populated by all his flimflam men and Betsy DeVos-type nitwits. One nation under crap.
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John Ogozalek
Still waking up screaming I see . I know the feeling well, Diane had posted a remedy for that . The relief was short lived .
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Yes, it’s like this dark cloud hovering above me throughout the day…..the Trumpstorm. Though I did spend the afternoon in my hammock relaxing, not a computer or TV within reach. Take care.
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Unplugging for a few hours is smart– sit out in the sun & read the NYT Book Review. Or plugging into fave non-political forums (mine is a small cohort of logophiles.) I also like: Teaching little kids. Watching Mexican coverage of futbol to hone my Spanish. Making earrings out of Sculpey. Singing! [my classical chorus did Mozart Requiem w/full orchestra Sat!] … the possibilities are endless!
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THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH ALL THIS: I sat out on the hammock for hours catching up with all sorts of reading, like magazines etc… Most of the hammock is covered in shade. Most. Now and then I’d doze off. Or, I’d just lay there thinking….big thoughts….small thoughts. At one point, I was actually thinking about how I ought to make a real effort this summer to avoid doing anything stupid. (it seems like every summer I do at least one thing that is really, really DUMB.) All the while, I’m laying there, thinking these big thoughts with one of my legs hanging off the hammock apparently exposed to the full brunt of the afternoon sun. Then, I get home last night and I’m like, WTF, what did I do to my leg??? Turns out I have this huge sunburn on the lower part of one leg! Lobster leg! LOL. So much for my resolution to avoid doing dumb things. But, hey, isn’t that what summer is for. Enjoy!
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