Audrey Beardsley, on her blog “Vamboozled,” notes that Tom Kane, Harvard economist and leader of the Gates Foundation’s $45 million Measures of Effective Teaching, has returned to the hustings to argue on behalf of the causal value of value-added measurement, that is, the idea that teachers directly “cause” the test score gains of students. For VAM to work, she argues, students would have to be randomly assigned, and they almost never are. Even “random assignment” might not truly be random, because teachers would still face vastly different classes, some with many highly motivated students and others with many unmotivated students, as well as a host of other unmeasured variables. Imagine sitting at a poker table, and the dealer randomly assigns cards. One person has a royal flush, another has a hand without even a pair. The assignment was “random,” but the cards dealt were very different.

 

Beardsley writes:

 

Kane, like other VAM statisticians, tend to (and in many ways have to if they are to continue with their VAM work, despite “the issues”) (over)simplify the serious complexities that come about when random assignment of students to classrooms (and teachers to classrooms) is neither feasible, nor realistic, or outright opposed (as was also clearly evidenced in the above article by 98% of educators, see again here).

 

The random assignment of students to classrooms (and teachers to classrooms) very rarely happens. Rather, the use of many observable and unobservable variables are used to make such classroom placement decisions, and these variables go well beyond whether students are eligible for free-and-reduced lunches or are English-language learners.

 

Ah, if only the real world were as tidy as many economists would like it to be.