Steve Ruis posed an interesting suggestion in a comment yesterday. What if Democrats tricked Republicans into fighting vaccines and masks?
He wrote:
Maybe we should approach this using the mechanisms of the GOP. Spread the rumor that the anti-vax/anti-mask campaigns were created by liberals to deliberately expose GOP voters to the deadly disease. GOP voters are known to be older and more likely to die if they get the disease, so they have been targeted with these fake news campaigns.
Of course! Qui bono when diehard conservatives drop like flies from the COVID?
What if Steve is right?
What if it was undercover Democrats who persuaded Trump voters that masking and vaccines are for sissies and that real Americans, real men and women, don’t wear masks and never get vaccinated?
What sane Republican would want conservative families to fight against public health measures?
The entire Trump family is vaccinated, but that means nothing to the anti-vaxxers.
What kind of mind control has convinced them that it is fine for Trump and Melania to get the shot, but they don’t need it?
Even Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar are ridiculing the vaccine. They were tricked too.
The Republican base is supplying the great majority of COVID deaths.
When will they figure out that they were hoaxed?
Diane Ravitch's blog 
I think it’s actually the opposite of “mind control”.
What you see is that conservative voters have all-time low levels of trust in media:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/30/partisan-divides-in-media-trust-widen-driven-by-a-decline-among-republicans/
and government:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/17/public-trust-in-government-1958-2021/
What’s happening is a crisis of trust in institutions.
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Further evidence of a crisis of trust – conservatives have lost trust in 17 out of 18 major institutions:
https://morningconsult.com/institutional-distrust-deepens-on-the-right-following-election/
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Further evidence that those conservative voters have an extreme level of trust in their conservative news media sources here — conservative voters will believe any lie – whether the lie is that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump or the lie is that all news sources that aren’t right wing and all institutions that aren’t right wing can’t be trusted.
I would say that one important reason why conservative voters are so embarrassingly misinformed and place their extreme trust in right wing news media that lies to them is that the so-called mainstream media has bent over backward NOT to inform those voters that their media sources are liars.
They hear from Fox News or other right wing news sources “the left wing media is lying to you, don’t believe anything they say.”
They hear from mainstream news sources: “Republicans say the election was stolen from Trump and partisan Democrats disagree, who knows which side is telling the truth.”
The reason non-conservatives have less trust in the mainstream news media is because much of the time they report stories that give equal weight to truth and lies.
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It would be very interesting, indeed, to see a study that tried to sort out where the antimaskers and antivaxxers got their information–especially the ones who are antimask and antivax but not activists–the ones who, as you say, think this stuff but really don’t pay attention to the news (that’s a LOT of Americans). Some scientists at Renssalaer Polytechnic, a few years back, did a study that concluded that for the general majority opinion on a subject to change, all you need is 10 percent who are HIGHLY COMMITTED to the new POV. A pretty low tipping point than confirms the idea of a nation of sheeple. Well, my mechanic and my hairdressers and my uncle’s friends Matt and Bob all say. . . .
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Matt,
This poll vaguely refers to “National News Organizations”. WTH is a “National News Organization”?
Conservative voters have a lot of trust in right wing news organizations like Fox who push propaganda about how they shouldn’t trust the government or “national media” (which of course excludes all right wing media).
I want to know your theory of why so many conservative voters are misinformed about so many things given that you are trying to imply that those voters don’t trust “National News Organizations”.
Why do so many Republicans believe Biden didn’t win the election? Did they all come to that conclusion at the same time in a dream?
Conservative voters have so much trust in right wing national news organizations that they believe those news organizations that the other
“national news organizations” are lying to them and Trump really won the election.
But if you are one of those people who think it is still very likely that Trump won the 2020 election, and you don’t consider those voters to be “misinformed”, you would have no need to wonder what information sources those conservative voters DO trust to make them believe a lie.
Matt Metzgar, either most conservative voters all simultaneously came to the conclusion that the the 2020 election was stolen from Trump or those conservative voters got their information that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump via a news source they did trust.
Your problem is that you just answered your own question. Conservative voters trust some source of news that gives them false information. And that news source they trust tells them that the other media is lying to them and tells them not to trust institutions.
So what should we do about the lying news sources that Matt Metzgar so aptly points out are the main reason that conservative voters believe lies?
Matt, any ideas? Those news sources that conservative voters trust told them a lot of lies, including lies about how they shouldn’t trust those other institutions. How do you plan to stop the lies of the conservative news sources that conservative voters trust so much?
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My longer reply is not posting so perhaps this one will.
Matt, conservative voters have far too much trust in their own “news sources” — and this poll uses a vague term “National News Organizations”.
Did the conservative respondents believe that the term “National News Organizations” includes Fox and other right wing news outlets or did conservatives identify “National News Organizations” as “liberal media”?
Are you willing to stipulate that when the majority of conservative voters believe that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, it is NOT because they all woke up simultaneously having a dream that the election was stolen?
Conservative voters are getting their “news” from news sources that they do trust! Clearly they trust them because that’s why they believe the election was stolen from Trump! They don’t need no stinkin’ evidence to believe it because the news source those conservative voters trust told them so.
Those news source the conservative voters do trust ALSO told them not to trust any mainstream news sources and not to trust institutions.
So you have answered your own question. As long as right wing news sources that conservative voters trust for all of their information keep lying to them, those conservative voters will believe the right wing news source who tell them not to trust institutions and not to trust mainstream media but ONLY to trust the right wing news sources that it turns out are blatantly misinforming them!
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“Did the conservative respondents believe that the term “National News Organizations” includes Fox and other right wing news outlets or did conservatives identify “National News Organizations” as “liberal media”?
I would say yes.
“Are you willing to stipulate that when the majority of conservative voters believe that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, it is NOT because they all woke up simultaneously having a dream that the election was stolen?”
Yes.
“So you have answered your own question.”
I never asked a question in my post.
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No
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Just what Vlad expected when he said to his cronies, “I know. Let’s give them that idiot, Trump.” Must be a lot of laughter in the Kremlin right now at the consequent disorder and crisis of trust.
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“What’s happening is a crisis of trust in institutions.”
Yes. That is exactly what’s happening. A necessary condition for the right’s erasing them.
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A constant diet, for four years, of talk about “the fake news media,” online conspiracy theories (caravans of migrants funded by George Soros, Jewish Space Lasers, Baby eating by Hillary and Hanks, proliferation of extremist sites like Not-So-Breibart and The Daily Stormer and OAN + Network Effects in highly connected networks (probably LESS than 7 degrees of separation by now). It’s not difficult to guess why this crisis of trust is happening. No, I don’t trust the vaccine. No, I don’t trust the traditional news sources. You make an important point here, Matt. Sorry that it has met with nothing but derision. This erosion in trust that government can actually carry out important functions and carry them out well is new, in its breadth, and dangerous.
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Bob,
Well, it’s only been met with moderate derision. Some people here actually agree.
And yes, this erosion of trust is going to have a lot of dangerous consequences.
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You and I have had some disagreements here, Matt. But I emphatically agree with you on this one. It is really important for people to be able to have some level of trust (trust, but verify, Reagan famously said), and it’s heartbreaking to see how severely that has eroded.
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The Right did this all on their own. They had the same access to science — even more when Trump was in the WH. They made their choices, and now their beds. This is a very dangerous proposition. What’s the purpose of fueling more mis/disinformation?
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Maybe Republicans would rush to get vaccinated if they start to wonder whether they have been tricked into refusing the vaccine
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I think you are over-emphasizing the role of Republican leaders here. The vast majority of people have jobs, families, etc., and are not hanging on every word of their Congressional leaders.
For example, you mention Paul Gosar in your post. I have no idea who that even is. The simpler explanation is that people have lost trust in institutions.
Only in the Twitter-verse are the proclamations made by politicians important.
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You think that Republicans are indifferent to the nearly unanimous opposition of Republican leaders to masking and vaccine mandates? You think they are not moved by their governors and senators? What about FOXNews and the many conservative talk show hosts who oppose masks, vaccines, and mandates?
I can’t believe you never heard of Paul Gosar of Arizona. He is the far-right member of Congress who posted a make-believe video of him murdering his colleague AOC. He was censured by the House for doing so. His siblings regularly urge people not to vote for their brother.
Republicans are listening to their leaders. That’s why so many are refusing to get vaccinated and endangering the rest of us. Their resistance prolongs the pandemic. Maybe that is what the leaders hope to do, so they can blame Biden not ending the pandemic.
Today’s Washington Post:
Congressional Republicans are planning to ratchet up their attempts to repeal President Biden’s vaccine and testing mandates, seeking to unwind policies that the White House and top public health officials see as critical to combating the coronavirus. The emerging campaign mirrors in spirit the political and legal battles that GOP officials launched earlier in the pandemic, as they attacked business closures, mask mandates and other government-led measures to slow the contagion. Republicans on Capitol Hill contend that the vaccine requirements are unwarranted and unconstitutional and that they put Americans’ jobs at risk. The newest salvo is set to arrive as soon as Wednesday, less than a week after a group of Republicans in the Senate nearly shuttered Washington in protest of the president’s policies. Led by Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), the effort specifically targets the Biden administration’s rules that order private businesses to require vaccination or implement comprehensive coronavirus testing for their workers. Braun’s legislative push hinges on a congressional process to review, and potentially revoke, federal agency regulations. It is expected to secure more than the 51 votes necessary to prevail since the GOP recently gained the support of some Democrats, including Sen. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.).
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Diane
Matt is right about one thing.
Republicans are not necessarily getting all their “facts” from their Republican leaders on the covid vaccine issue.
Lots of them are undoubtedly listening to people like Bret Weinstein, self proclaimed “liberal” and scientist by credential (albeit not of medicine) who has a podcast in which he regularly talks about the “dangers” of the covid vaccines and touts the wonders of the anti worm medicine Ivermectin for preventing and treating covid — based on be flimsiest of “evidence”.
Even some seemingly smart people treat Weinstein like he is some sort of medical expert (which having a PhD in evolutionary biology does not make him) and seem to hang on his every word about the covid vaccines and Ivermectin.
And lots of the dumber ones listen to muscle headed nutball Joe Rogan, who also has a following of millions and regularly airs opinions (his own and those of others) that have no basis in science whatsoever and are often so far out in right field that even the right fielders have a hard time following them.
And millions also get their “facts” from Fox news, of course, which also regularly airs unscientific crap .
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SomeDAM,
I think that’s a really interesting question – if conservative voters aren’t listening to traditional authorities for their info, where are they getting it?
My guess is that in-person conversations with family and friends would be a main driver. But I don’t know.
With all the hype over online misinformation, I wonder is it really even a factor for most? I think Fox News gets 2-3 million daily viewers, but compare that to the ~74 million that voted for Trump.
I would love to see a study about the importance of online versus in-person information on vaccine decisions.
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Matt
It’s likely not simply a matter of everyone getting their information online because as you say, lots of people probably don’t spend any time online.
But online personalities like Weinstein and Rogan definitely can have an oversized influence on the conversation by a sort of amplifying effect.
Here’s how that might work: someone watches their podcasts and then tells family members “I watched this scientist recently who made a very good case that there are dangers to taking the vaccines and that Ivermectin is a completely safe, highly effective alternative”. Then this conversation gets passed around among friends, relatives and colleagues. So the one person who watched the podcast acts as a “trusted source” for lots of other people who did not. A lots of those people might not even know who Weinstein is, having heard him described simply as a ” PhD scientist who knows what he talking about and says we should not trust the authorities about the vaccine safety”
As someone who has a scientific background (but not in medicine), I can say that some of the Weinstein podcasts I have watched seemed fairly convincing. It’s only after doing independent research that I realized that he is basically full of it on the vaccine and Ivermectin issues.
People like Weinstein act as a sort of amplifier for a signal that already exists within the general populace. And because they actually have scientific credentials, they get quoted as experts when their credential is not in the medical area.
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“My guess is that in-person conversations with family and friends would be a main driver.”
And those many family and friends all woke up the same day and believed the same lies?
What a coincidence that so many people believe the same lies at the same time because those lies inserted themselves into the brains of their family and friends simultaneously and got them to spread the word. Maybe it was space aliens.
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NYCP,
“And those many family and friends all woke up the same day and believed the same lies?”
People have actual experiences that do not involve online life. If their friends got vaccinated or not, if their friends died of coivd, or didn’t die of covid,… if their friends experienced side effects or didn’t experience side effects.
People don’t need the internet to form opinions.
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NYCP,
I’m sure online info played a role, as shown here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7590343/
In-person relationships have also played a role:
“Participants held more positive vaccination attitudes and greater likelihood to get vaccinated or vaccinate their child when they were frequently exposed to positive attitudes and frequently discussing vaccinations with family and friends. We also observed that vaccination uptake was decreased when family and friends were hesitant to take the vaccine.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34198885/
My original question was which factor is having more of an impact. I don’t know the answer to that. What do you think?
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Matt says: “People don’t need the internet to form opinions.”
You make such a convincing case for why the majority of conservatives believe the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.
It was because their friends and family told them that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump!
Of course, you never address why any of their friends and family got the idea that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump — was it their “personal experience”? Did aliens implant that idea?
There was a time when a crazy relative who spewed evidence-free conspiracy theories about stolen elections and fake pandemics and fake science were marginalized. If I am to believe your theory, I guess that crazy relatives who talk about stolen elections and covid cures now are more likely to believed, but you never address why (according to your theory) those relatives spouting evidence-free conspiracy theories are now so much more convincing to their conservative family.
Hint: It’s because those relatives spewing evidence free theories have a huge right wing propaganda arm masquerading as “news” that supports them.
Hint: It’s because one of the major political parties – the Republicans – have been legitimizing and amplifying evidence free theories.
There was a time when conservative leaders were like Liz Cheney and Justin Amash and ignored or laughed at evidence free rantings of their relatives as much as moderates and progressives did. Now those evidence free rants are ALSO being repeated by Republican leaders and right wing news outlets.
Liz Cheney and Justin Amash are presented as liars by those right wing news outlets and Republican “leaders” and right wing “experts” presented as truth-tellers.
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NYCP,
I don’t have a theory. I said both things, in-person interactions and online interactions, have an impact.
Which of those do you think had the bigger impact?
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Matt says: “both things, in-person interactions and online interactions, have an impact.”
I agree!
Matt says: “Which of those do you think had the bigger impact?”
I have no idea. Do you?
Matt, maybe we agree on 2 things now! I believe that we agree that conservative voters are badly misinformed because of in-person interactions and online interactions.
And I believe we also agree that neither of us has any idea whether more conservative voters are badly misinformed because they get their misinformation directly from online interactions or if more conservative voters are badly misinformed because they get their misinformation from in-person relatives and friends who are misinformed from their on-line interactions.
It’s nice when we agree.
I also have no idea what to do about how badly misinformed conservative voters are because of their online interactions and their in-person interactions with people who are misinformed from their on-line interactions.
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NYCP,
Yes, I (actually) agree with you!
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Diane,
You say “Republicans are listening to their leaders”.
They would have to know who their leaders actually are in order to listen. And there is a variety of evidence showing that many people are not that tuned in.
Only 37% of Americans can name their US Representative: https://www.haveninsights.com/just-37-percent-name-representative/
77% of Millennials cannot name a Senator from their state: https://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/poll-millennials-state-senators-114867
A third of Americans can’t name their Governor: https://releases.jhu.edu/2018/12/11/jhu-survey-americans-dont-know-much-about-state-government/
Back in 2010, 40% of Americans couldn’t name who was the Vice President: https://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/09/joe-biden-update-pew-poll.html
So while a certain portion of the population that is political engaged, the average person is not hanging on the words of their Congressional leaders.
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So you think that Republicans never heard of Ron DeSantis? Gregg Abbott? Trump? Tucker Carlson? Josh Hawley? Ted Cruz? No one knows who they are? You have a very, very low opinion of Republicans.
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I could have missed it, coming into the conversation late, but nobody mentioned talk radio. Since Limbaugh, conservative opinion has derived largely from this format in my own personal contacts with conservative thinkers I know. This group ranges from those who listen to radio that calls itself Christian to shows like that of now Covid victim Phil Valentine, a secular commentator.
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Diane,
I think you have it backwards: Republicans generally have a low opinion of their leaders.
Overall, Republicans give Congress a 5% approval rate: https://news.gallup.com/poll/356591/congress-approval-lowest-2021-democrats-turn-negative.aspx
And only 49% of Republicans approve of how their own party is doing in Congress: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/09/23/views-of-biden-and-congressional-leaders/
So:
1) A good portion of Republicans don’t even know who their Representatives and Senators are
2) They do not approve much of the ones they do know
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This is a ridiculous discussion. You keep insisting that Republicans are not influenced by their elected officials’ anti-Vaxx views. That’s pure nonsense and I’ll not respond to your obstinate insistence on nonsense.
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Diane,
I’m sure that some Republicans are influenced by their leaders’ positions, sure.
My position is that this is not the driving force for the majority of Republicans. I’ve given sources to support everything I’ve said.
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And I have given sources for everything I have said, although it’s possible that the GOP leaders are pandering to their unvaxxed, ignorant base.
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Matt and Diane: Republican respondents who suggest that their reps are not desirable are often answering more general questions about all congress. Their true leadership people are often in particular media places, and the people they vote for are the people who mouth the same platitudes
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Matt, I have a two-word answer to the position that people’s attitudes, actions aren’t guided by what politicians say:
network effects
There’s a large body of science on this one.
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Bob,
Yes, I am very familiar with network effects, and I agree they are happening here.
How is it happening is my question, which I asked above. Is it online info driving in-person discussions, which then affect individual decisions? Or are some people not paying attention to the online info and looking more to family and friends’ personal experiences? How do religious convictions play a role?
I don’t know the answer to how it is happening. It would be difficult to model.
Answering it is important, though, because in order to reverse the low vaccination rates among conservatives you would have to model what is causing them.
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Bob
I agree with you that a lot of the spread is due to network effects.
What caused so many people who previously accepted vaccines for themselves and their children to now suddenly reject them?
In specific cases, who knows?
But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that there has been a concerted disinformation campaign on this issue coming from politicians and others.
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For a FUD campaign to be successful. You don’t need to actually convince people that something is absolutely true — in this case that the vaccines are dangerous.
All you need to do is create enough fear, uncertainty and doubt in people’s minds to cause them to forgo the vaccination.
So even a whisper campaign can work very well.
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Not incidentally, this is precisely the strategy that was used to postpone action on the climate change issue.
Create uncertainty and doubts about the science and fear in people’s minds that their cars and trucks will be taken away and their lives turned upside down.
It’s the same damned FUD over and over
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Changing people’s minds at this point is going to be difficult if not impossible because once the seeds of uncertainty and fear have been planted, it’s hard to eradicate the seedlings.
If people can only be convinced by the death of family members that vaccination is a good idea, I don’t see that knowing the specific reasons behind their fears and doubts is going to really help.
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That is particularly true if people don’t trust the very scientists who are telling them the vaccines are safe and effective
Nothing the scientists say is going to matter.
The upshot is that the antivaxxers have to take personal responsibility. It’s not really the responsibility of someone else at this point to change their minds.
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Roy Turrentine,
Thank you for bringing up the important issue of talk radio. I forgot about it and how Rush Limbaugh ushered in this new era.
And to those who pointed out this is an INTENTIONAL effort – thank you. Matt’s posts, in my opinion, are here to keep us discussing whether it is people getting their news online or people getting their information from their family. That keeps anyone from talking about who it is that is behind this effort and how powerful they now are, thanks to the huge concentration of wealth.
Journalists now reflect the Matt POV — they will write endless stories about what people think because they get their information from an online source, or what people think because they get their information from their family. And they never write about who is behind this effort.
I could not believe the dearth of reporting after the 2016 election about Peter Thiel, Palantir, Facebook, the Trump campaign, Cambridge Analytica, Robert Mercer and what a widespread effort at targeted misinformation during the 2016 election using reams of illegally obtained data. No biggie, I guess.
There was marginally more discussion in Britain than in America, where many Brexit voter were also influenced by misinformation. The NYT had a very few good stories — published once and buried — so that this important story got .01% (if that) of the coverage that the Afghanistan withdrawal got.
Linda often keeps us informed about the various powers who have taken over important institutions so they can usher in the end of democracy. But we should be reading about that daily in the so-called liberal media. Instead we get stories about isn’t it interesting how many people don’t trust vaccines by reporters who show absolutely no curiosity about how that happened. Those journalists say “but we are curious, we are reporting about whether they got their misinformation from their neighbors or on-line.” Yep, they will spare no effort to report on the things that the right wing powers are fine with them reporting on. As long as they stay away from reporting on who is behind it all.
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This weird theory has been out there for a few months now!…nothing new. Along with this craziness is a theory that Dems all got vaccinated so that they could catch Covid and be asymptomatic with it yet spread it to the un-vaxed Republicans who refuse to wear a mask or follow safety measures….the Libs are trying to kill off the Republicans OH MY!
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Not original (LOL) I said weeks ago Biden should make a speech thanking Republican voters for kicking the bucket and Republican politicians for the assist. Although I may not have said it on this forum. Well if I didn’t I am now! “Ask me if I care ”
Sadly good governance don’t mean much to the American people, they need someone to hate. Trump not only motivated his base by providing them with a daily dose of people to hate( like the college educated and minorities ) and issues to be outraged on . He finally motivated the center and left. As witnessed by the turnout in 18 and 20 . No more questioning as to whether “deplorable” was to harsh a term. With Trump off the Ballot and out of the in your face daily outrage clown show, the center and left did not show in those same huge numbers in off year elections. The right being told “their nation ” was being “stolen” did.
There are no issues here on long Island the schools are pretty much segregated by wealth (Especially anti CRT Commack). Nassau County has been rated the safest large community in the Nation. The Mexican gardeners do everyone’s lawn and disappear into other communities. Yet Democrats got wiped out as Republicans played on racial fears and non existent crime.
Even the crime numbers in NY City in 2020 were lower than 2011 when :
“Mayor Bloomberg’s year-end bragging is not over: Just days after boasting how New Yorkers are living longer because of NYC health initiatives, he revealed that the city’s crimes continued to fall”… “Notably, the murder rate is expected to be slightly more than 500 for 2011, which would be down from the 526 recorded in 2010″
Now no one I know thought the city was unsafe in 2010 or 2011. There were 467 murders in 2020 with the Pandemic and all.
I seldom agree with Carville on much but ;
“As of now the White House does not have good story tellers. Good stories need villains,”
Republican Politicians and the Oligarchs who back them sure make an inviting target .
I don’t hear it, is it that Biden thinks he is ever going to get bipartisanship or win over a Trumpanzee. I suspect he thinks he will turn off the mythical swing voter. Hey Joe he/she don’t exist. People do not change from cycle to cycle short of Black Swan events. Obama getting elected was a massive Black swan. No pun intended . Tough” being better than a the best Black man” when that Black Man is President.
Repeat after me there was no Obama to trump voters just Obama voters that did not or were bared from showing up and those Obama voters are the majority of Americans.
Republican politicians are increasing that majority.
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“Repeat after me there was no Obama to trump voters”…
“the ANES data suggest that about 8.4 million 2012 Obama voters backed Trump in 2016 ”
“the estimated raw vote total worked out to about 6.7 million Obama-Trump voters”
“Based on Trump’s overall popular vote, the poll’s finding suggests that roughly 9.2 million Trump voters cast a ballot for Obama in 2012, a higher estimate than those based off the two election studies.”
Source: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/just-how-many-obama-2012-trump-2016-voters-were-there/
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Except for this from UVA Center for politics . Which also explains why the polls have been so off.
“However, as we pointed out above, there are reasons to be skeptical of reported past vote. Overall, 58% of respondents to the 2016 ANES who said they voted in 2012 (including those who didn’t vote in 2016) claimed to have voted for Obama, seven points more than the 51% Obama actually won in 2012. Meanwhile, Romney only won 40% of the vote of those who said they cast a ballot in 2012, seven points fewer than the 47% Romney really won in 2012. ”
So much for the reliability of what voters tell you. Pretty tough to draw a conclusion when the inputs are so flawed Few people want to admit they are blatant racists. How many Germans after the war would admit to admiring Nazis .
The motivating factor in voting for Trump according to the study I will post was race and xenophobia. So you voted for a black man twice or in 12 and then a blatant racist in 16 and economics was not the motivator . There was a 1.6% difference in turnout between 2012. And a 4.8 % difference in turnout between 08 . The more sensible conclusions is that increase in turnout from 12 was by Whites voting for Trump . And the decrease in turnout from 2008 is Obama voters staying home. Especially in those Mid West swing states where economies were in decline. I know plenty of Obama to Trump voters
they were looking for his birth certificate for 6years. Ask me if I believe any of them .
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/16/17980820/trump-obama-2016-race-racism-class-economy-2018-midterm
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Joel,
Remember how Nixon won the 1972 election in a historical landslide with more than 60% of the vote?
And remember how after the after the Watergate scandal, an extraordinary percentage of voters denied voting for Nixon in 1972! I’m shocked he could even squeak out a win — voter fraud?
The opposite happens as well. People like to say they voted for the winner (even if they didn’t vote at all) as long as the winner hasn’t resigned in disgrace.
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^^Also, I am just shocked that you doubt the word of folks who spent 6 years looking for Obama’s birth certificate about their 2008 vote for Obama. Maybe in 2008 they voted for Obama because they believed it was time for a non-American citizen to be president? Or maybe they vowed to permanently punish the Democrats for nominating a Kenyan and conning them into voting for a Kenyan.
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Joel,
Three different studies show there were most likely millions of Obama-Trump voters. That’s pretty far from zero.
While finding the exact number is not possible, any reasonable estimate puts the number of Obama-Trump voters in millions.
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Matt Metzgar
You cited the ANES study not me and I don’t dispute it is the most extensive study. That very study is the one that throws cold water on its own conclusion by being off by a huge 7% margin from actual vote tallies.
Now one may be clueless who they voted for Highway Superintendent or even a School Board member perhaps a Towns Mayor. . But President of the United States?!, I think one accurately remembers that. If not a Doctors visit is in order.
This isn’t Northern Europe with voter turnouts of 85% where you might say one feels compelled to exercise their vote. Voter turnout is so low in this country 56% in 16 that I think one can safely say only those motivated to vote showed up. People are not forgetting, they are lying, as they lied to the pollsters before the 2016 election. And lied to pollsters in the 2020 election.
The social sciences are not physical sciences. If you need an example the vast majority of economists failed to see the Financial Collapse in 2008 coming. The Polestars missed the hidden Trump voter in 16 and 20. There is not much to be proud about when voting for a narcissistic, authoritarian, demagogue. I would tell people I voted for Obama in 12 too.
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Polestars may actually work better pollsters in the last paragraph
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Of Pollsters and Polestars
It’s written in the stars
And written in the cards
The habits of the folks
In Presidential votes
From Polestars and from pollsters
We get the voting poop
For East to Western coasters
With pollster’s pooper scoop
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The monoclonal antibody and the Merck pill that the right seem to accept are both on emergency authorization. In fact, there are greater concerns about side effects from the Merck pill than the MNRA vaccines endorsed by the White House. There is little logic to those that would rather die than get the vaccine. Anyone concerned with the MNRA factor in vaccine development should wait and get a new vaccine that was created in the traditional way from NovaVax.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-approved-very-soon-says-ema-chief-2021-12-07/
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Is this the Steve Ruis of Sacramento Community College District in CA and former president of AFT 1493 in San Mateo CCD, also in CA? If so, I would love to be back in touch with him. Joe ______________________ co-author with Helena Worthen, of Power Despite Precarity: strategies for the contingent faculty movement in higher education. Order at https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745345529/power-despite-precarity/ or from Powells through the ILWU local 5 portal at Paperbacks come with free e-books. ——————— Joe Berry 21 San Mateo Road, Berkeley, CA 94707 cell-510-999-0751 joeberry@igc.org or joetracyberry@gmail.com Skype: joeberry1948
>
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Also can we stop calling this the Trump Vaccine. On January 31st 2020 the Chinese made the gene sequence of the virus public. Within days Pfizer had several vaccine candidates built on their MRNA Platform. By mid March they were applying for Human trials from the European Medicines Agency followed shortly after by applications to the FDA . Pfizer took 700 million from the Germans to Build production facilities. It took no money from the US.
Warp Speed was announced on May 14 . Basically guaranteeing a market for their vaccine if it was at all successful. Is there any doubt that there would have been a massive market for a successful vaccine. Tough to say that it was created by Warp speed when it was created before the program existed. The EU being slightly more clumsy as a political body than the US may have had a slow start in Vaccinating . I think we can say that is history. With 75 to 85% vaccination rates .
Moderna who is actually partnered with the NIH . Was on a similar time line. Of course Moderna did obviously take funding from its partner NIH and Warp Speed for testing. We should be discussing whether either of these vaccines deserves to be patent protected as neither would exist without at least 15 years of funding by NIH that created the platform (blueprints ) they use.
Further; please remind me which party has opposed increases in funding for NIH for decades and which President called for cutting that funding in his 2020 budget before the virus struck.
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If calling the vaccine “The Trump Vaccine” encourages Republicans to get vaccinated instead of ridiculing it, I’m for calling it after Trump.
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The Trump Vaccine it is, then.
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I bet if Trump had cornered the market on beach and labeled it ” Dr. Trump’s Covid Elixar” he would have made a killing.
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Elixir
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Bleach?
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Yes bleach
But one could also probably have made a killing (of just the monetary kind) by cornering the market on beaches — especially when the beaches were empty during the lockdowns.
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Don’t forget that one of the major demographics electing not to take the vaccine is black people. This virus has hit the elderly, overweight, and black people the hardest. To quote a great man, “sad”.
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“to quote a GREAT man…”
enough said.
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Jacky, bless her heart, actually raises an important point, one that I’ve come to, admittedly, through various personal experiences, some from recent travels. It is true that the two groups, as disparate as they are, who are least like to be vaccinated are white republicans and poorer blacks. Why is that? No need to get into the former. But as to the latter, much of that can be traced to a widespread distrust of the medical system. Although the correct reasons for that distrust have been eliminated in practice and policy, that bias still exists. The only long term solution to that problem is patients, public awareness, and education at every level. Thinking of taking bets on the enactment of such policies, odds increase geometrically after next two federal elections.
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…only long term solution is patience… WordPress!
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GregB
It is extremely troubling. I have stated here a few time that Republican politicians knew that the virus was disproportionately affecting poor Blacks in their States and that they were vaccinated at lower rates.
I don’t think that distrust is traceable to Tuskegee as horrendous as it was, it affected a very small number of people. Meaning that the family and friends who witnessed that experience would be relatively small.
I suspect it is the interactions of poor Blacks with the Medical establishment for multiple decades and the worse outcomes that has shaped their hesitancy.
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The Dimocraps don’t have the chutzpah to do such a thing.
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Nor the diabolical smarts needed.
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Education-related: About 35,000 students in LAUSD are going to miss the vaccination deadline imposed by the district for students 12 and over. Should they all be sent home?
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I apologize if this isn’t allowed, but I am interested in your answer to the question you posted.
Should they all be sent home?
(Again, apologies for this if my question was improper. Not commenting, just interested in your own answer to the question you posed.)
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Of course they should all be sent home. How could that even be a dilemma? They are posing some marginal increase in risk to an adult staff that is 100% vaccinated as well as to the even lower-risk population of students in their classes, most of whom are also vaccinated. That’s intolerable! Duh!
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Flerp.
You being a conservative, I would have thought that you would have been concerned with the “moral hazard” of allowing people to flaunt the law.
After all the next time might be as soon the next variant out of some corner of the world.
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Joel, I’m not a conservative. Beyond that, as usual, I don’t follow your comment.
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As a current NYC public school parent, I am just randomly posting that I was absolutely appalled to have recently learned that “only” 99.94% of the 1700+ NYC public schools allowed students to remove masks during outside recess. Imagine if that was just the tip of the iceberg and it was actually triple the number of schools! That would mean that only 99.82% of the NYC public schools allowed students to remove their masks at outdoor recess! That clearly implies a secret policy by the DOE to harm children who don’t attend one of the 99+% of schools that do allow students to remove their mask at recess.
However, I was relieved to see that the source for this “fact” never did confirm that there was even one NYC public school that required students to leave on their masks at recess and that source has since deleted the tweet that I believed was an absolutely credible source. Oops! My bad. I mean, her bad.
But now I am shocked to learn from that same absolutely credible tweety source that at least one out of the 1700+ NYC public schools “makes” kids sit on the floor to eat lunch inside. Surely that is child abuse! Doesn’t that school understand that when children are indoors eating lunch without masks, they are supposed to be sitting close together at crowded lunch tables?!
I saw a great response by a parent to this “reliable” source’s tweet condemning a school for not having a more “sensible and family-friendly” policy of requiring children to sit at crowded indoor lunch tables when they take their masks off and eat.
“They sit on the floor so they can be 6 feet or more spread apart while their masks are off to eat. We did this at our school last year and they brought a beach towel. Kids did not care, but they could talk.”
This is an education blog, I just want to confirm that everybody here thinks Michelle Goldberg should give her kid a beach towel?
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^^This was accidentally posted in the wrong place, and is not intended to be a reply to a comment about LAUSD and vaccines. Apologies.
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I’ve always thought of Flerp as more of an iconoclast than a conservative.
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They should be lined up and vaccinated, to protect them and their families and everyone they interact with it.
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Also education-related: I’ve noted previously here that NYC elementary students are required to wear masks not only indoors all day long but also outside at recess. Nobody here seemed to think that was a problem.
It’s also been reported that students at many schools have been required to eat lunch outside. Because of Covid.
Now, at least at one school, some NYC elementary students are permitted to eat lunch inside but must sit on the floor. Because of Covid.
This is an education blog, I just want to confirm that everybody here thinks this is good education policy.
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Flerp
Although the term is usually applied to economics.
“Moral hazard is a situation in which one party engages in risky behavior or fails to act in good faith because it knows the other party bears the economic consequences of their behavior”
There are severe economic as well as health hazards to this virus. Perhaps we can make it pure economics.
Insurance companies should not have to pay for a willfully un-vaccinated person who needs medical care or hospitalization.
Medicare and Medicaid Services should certainly not be forced to pick up the tab when Jrs un-vaccinated grandma needs a ventilator.
Further no Hospital should be compelled to treat an unvaccinated individual.
If that sounds harsh perhaps you can think of another medical condition that those provisions apply to.
If not ask Linda for a life line .
I did not call you a Trumpanzee.
As for not being conservative
“as usual, I don’t follow your comment”
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Ask Lisa not Linda
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As a current NYC public school parent, I am just randomly posting that I was absolutely appalled to have recently learned that “only” 99.94% of the 1700+ NYC public schools allowed students to remove masks during outside recess. Imagine if that was just the tip of the iceberg and it was actually triple the number of schools! That would mean that only 99.82% of the NYC public schools allowed students to remove their masks at outdoor recess! That clearly implies a secret policy by the DOE to harm children who don’t attend one of the 99+% of schools that do allow students to remove their mask at recess.
However, I was relieved to see that the source for this “fact” never did confirm that there was even one NYC public school that required students to leave on their masks at recess and that source has since deleted the tweet that I believed was an absolutely credible source. Oops! My bad. I mean, her bad.
But now I am shocked to learn from that same absolutely credible tweety source that at least one out of the 1700+ NYC public schools “makes” kids sit on the floor to eat lunch inside. Surely that is child abuse! Doesn’t that school understand that when children are indoors eating lunch without masks, they are supposed to be sitting close together at crowded lunch tables?!
I saw a great response by a parent to this “reliable” source’s tweet condemning a school for not having a more “sensible and family-friendly” policy of requiring children to sit at crowded indoor lunch tables when they take their masks off and eat.
“They sit on the floor so they can be 6 feet or more spread apart while their masks are off to eat. We did this at our school last year and they brought a beach towel. Kids did not care, but they could talk.”
This is an education blog, I just want to confirm that everybody here thinks Michelle Goldberg should give her kid a beach towel?
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You should eat your lunch on a beach towel.
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My elementary school self would have thought that eating lunch on a beach towel was fun! How sad that conservatives have taken the joy out of childhood.
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My kid’s NYC public school has an open lunch — students can leave the building and eat lunch outside or go to the indoor cafeteria. (Fairly common policy for non-elementary school students).
Earlier this school year, I became aware that my kid’s school allowed students to eat lunch at tables in the indoor cafeteria unmasked, with no monitoring of whether they were social distancing.
Is that “good education policy”? I have no idea. I understood that public schools are trying to do the best they can under the difficult circumstances that happen during a worldwide pandemic.
I suppose on principle I could have tweeted to garner outrage about this public school’s “unhealthy” practice. But why?
If students were mandated to sit at crowded indoor cafeteria tables, without masks, to eat lunch, I might be more concerned knowing that at-risk students who lived in small apartments with vulnerable older family members would be putting their own families at risk. But that wasn’t the case as students could eat at a variety of places (even – shock! – on the floor!)
But I can’t wrap my head around what Michelle Goldberg’s agenda is here. Did she already try contacting the school to explain her daughter has a difficult time handling sitting on floors during lunch and needed to always have a seat at one of the tables where I presume a much smaller number of students than in pre-pandemic days are allowed to sit?
Did Michelle Goldberg talk to members of the SLT to see if there were any alternative possibilities? Did she join with other parents at that school to get this changed to some better policy that still avoided having maskless students at crowded indoor lunch tables?
Or did she just tweet about the outrage about how her daughter suffered because her public school was “making kids sit on the floor to eat lunch inside”?
In my experience, school administrators don’t respond to parents demanding special treatment for their kid that increases the risk to the rest of the school population, but they often respond to sensible solutions if indeed a significant percentage of students at Michelle Goldberg’s daughter’s school are suffering because they have to eat lunch sitting on the floor.
But if other parents at that school aren’t also outraged, too, it takes chutzpah to try to get people who have nothing to do with that school to be outraged. So many crazy things going on in this country and a kid who has to eat lunch on a beach towel is way down on my list of priorities.
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Are the Democrats tricking the GOP? Are corporations tricking corporations?
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Are Dems tricking Rupugs? Are corporations tricking corporations?
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Just when I wanted to move to California and was hoping the San Andreas fault would push it into the Pacific.
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More rhetoric to hollow out public education, IMHO and targeting people based on their political affiliations without any proof. Ridiculous!
Also ridiculous is an assumption that under educated people are the only group reluctant to take these shots. It is well documented that those with the doctorate degrees and beyond are nearly as reluctant.
For data based facts on the Pfizer trials, consider taking the time to review the testimonial evidence presented in the Louisiana House on Monday that resulted in a 13-2 NO VOTE on vaccine mandates.
Louisiana House Committee on Health and Welfare Dec. 6 2021
Begin watching at 13:12
https://www.house.louisiana.gov/H_Video/VideoArchivePlayer?v=house/2021/dec/1206_21_HW
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Anyone who is unvaccinated is risking their life.
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I find it reckless, damaging and extremely divisive to characterize opposition to an EUA product as a Red or Blue issue. It most certainly is not that.
Older individuals and those with known comorbidities not keeping up with boosters may be risking their lives. A public health system that withholds off label proven therapeutics that save lives is unconscionable.
Anyone can call the unwillingness to “take the medicine” a partisan issue but you can’t do that with this vote since half of Louisiana’s House Committee on Health and Welfare are Democrats, and like me, Democrats who follow and believe in process, law and truth in data.
https://house.louisiana.gov/H_Cmtes/HealthAndWelfare
Only Democrat Reps., Robby Carter (District 72) and Dustin Miller (District 40) favored the the proposed rule.
Click to access H&W_12062021.pdf
It is NOT one bit surprising that Robby Carter and Dustin Miller represent Districts where the education levels are far below the average of the state’s.
https://statisticalatlas.com/state-lower-legislative-district/Louisiana/State-House-District-72/Household-Income
https://statisticalatlas.com/state-lower-legislative-district/Louisiana/State-House-District-40/Household-Income
Shameful that these two appear to want to use the majority of kids in their Districts because if they are on government assistance (mainly children of color) they would be unable to OPT OUT, unlike the double standard option that exists for their own kids. Absolutely Horrid!
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My children and grandchildren are vaccinated. So am I. If you want to protect yourself, your family, and your community against a deadly disease, you get vaccinated. If you prefer to prolong the pandemic and get sick and take the risk of dying, then don’t get vaccinated.
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It is estimated that approximately 44% of Americans have recovered from from this virus, however, unlike only in the unscientific American Health System do we have policy that refuses to verify the existence of natural immunity… and only for this ‘novel’ virus.
Israel has not placed a time limit on the amount of protection offered by natural immunity. The Swiss reevaluated their six month policy on natural immunity, based on science, and extended it to a year. Austria soon followed suit and it is expected that the rest of the EU will do the same.
America the almighty is not following the science but instead prescribing it. This is terrible for children, families, public education and the overall common good.
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“What if it was undercover Democrats who persuaded Trump voters that masking and vaccines are for sissies and that real Americans, real men and women, don’t wear masks and never get vaccinated?”
Well, I did see some claims that Jan 6 was suggested by liberals to trick Trumpists.
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The Trumpers waver between boasting about Jan 6 and praising its “heroes,” and blaming Jan 6 on the FBI and Antifa.
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Is this aithor the same Stephen Pail Ruis, who taught Chemistry @ SKYLINE COLLEGE in California, whilst he was married to Elisabeth MacGregor, and shared parenting with their daughter, Caitlin,and resided in Mill. Valley California back I the ’80’s ??
If so. Please have him contact an old friend. My name is Allison Chapman and I am ptreaently residing in Spokane, Washington. I can be reached @ (509) 514-1715.
Many. Many Heartfelt THANKS. !!!!
Allison Chapman
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Steverino.
Could this be the beginning of a beautiful reconnection ? I certainly hope so !! Please call me when you can. Hopefully you are doing well and that you are feeling healthy and happy !!
Much Love.
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YES ! IT’S REALLY VME !! WHAT A TERRIFIC SSURISE TO HEAR FROM YOU ! HOW ARE YOU. ALLISON IB WONDERLAND ?
Keep in touch with me.
Thanks for reaching out to y.
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