We have been saying it for months, no, since 2009, when Race to the Top started.
Value-added assessment or value-added-modeling is not ready for prime time.
Now we have a technical paper by American Institutes for Research that says it:
VAM is not ready for prime time.
Here is the takeaway:
“We cannot at this time encourage anyone to
use VAM in a high stakes endeavor. If one
has to use VAM, then we suggest a two-step
process to initially use statistical models to
identify outliers (e.g., low-performing
teachers) and then to verify these results
with additional data. Using independent
information that can confirm or disconfirm
is helpful in many contexts. The value of
this use of evaluative change results could be
explored in further research efforts….”
Is anyone at the U.S. Department of Education listening?